Week 4 Preview

Finally beat the Formula this week.  Although it’s still up big on me for the year:

Straight up (Big-Games):

Me = 14-6

Formula = 13-7

 

ATS (Big Games):

Me = 6-12

Formula = 6-13

 

Straight up (all-Games):

Me = 99-40 (71%)

Formula = 104-38 (73%)

 

ATS:

Me = 59-73 (45%)

Formula = 71-63 (52%)

 

This week we have 2 ranked match-ups, and two others that should be a factor in divisional/conference races.  The other 2 are just the best of their respective groups.  Not a great week.

 

Big Games:

  1. 16 Notre Dame  @ Wake Forest – Last year Notre Dame won in a shoot-out.  Both offenses are struggling this year and Notre Dame’s defense is playing well and Wake’s is pretty scrappy. So I don’t think we will be seeing a replay of last year. What will probably make the difference is if Wake is able to do some damage in the run game.  If they can, then they can keep it close. If ND shuts it down, then this will end up a blow-out.
    1. My Pick: ND 41 WF 24 (ND -7.5)
    2. Formula: ND SU (ND -7.5)
  2. TCU @ 22 Texas – TCU has won easily the last 2 years (24-7 and 31-9).  Texas seems to be a better team this year so I don’t think we will see a replay.  It’s also in Austin and Texas will be ready to go.  Texas had a big upset last week at home against USC.  They will be looking to pull off another upset here and put their foot into the Big12/Playoff race.
    1. My Pick: TCU 24 Texas 21 (PUSH)
    2. Formula: Texas SU (Texas +3)
  3. Wisconsin @ Iowa – Wisconsin has won the last 2 years (38-14 and 17-9). Iowa’s defense has been playing lights out this year and Wisconsin’s has been suspect.  Wisconsin has one of the better Rushing Offenses in the nation, but haven’t looked as good as many expected.  Iowa’s offense has been abysmal. Wisconsin will look to get it’s ground game up and running at full capacity here. Likely come out with a chip on shoulder after last weeks upset loss to BYU. The winner will take control of the Big Ten West
    1. My Pick: Wisc 21 – Iowa 14 (Wisc -3.5)
    2. Formula: Wisc SU (Iowa +3.5)
  4. 8 Stanford @ 23 Oregon – Stanford has destroyed Oregon the last 2 years (49-7 and 52-27). Oregon’s defense is playing better this year than it has and Stanford’s offense has not gotten on track. So I don’t think we’ll be seeing Stanford score in the 40’s. Maybe not 30’s. The key will be how much Oregon can get their offense on track against a very stout Stanford defense.  A win here could put Stanford squarely in the thick of the Playoff race.
    1. My Pick: Stan 28 Oreg 21 (Stan -2)
    2. Formula: Stan SU (Stan -2)
  5. 25 Texas A&M @ 1 Alabama – Alabama has steamrolled all comers so far.  Now that they have a QB that can damage opposing defenses, instead of just being a game manager, they look unstoppable.  TAMU’s defense has not been great thus far, so they will have to rely on their offense being able to put up some points on Alabama. No easy task.  They have been unable to break 20 points the last 2 years (in Alabama wins). Don’t think this year will be much different. Although I think their defense will hold Bama to fewer points than anyone else.
    1. My Pick: Bama 41 TAMU 17 (Tamu +27)
    2. Formula: Bama SU (Tamu +27)
  6. FAU @ 15 UCF – In what looked preseason like a game that could go into the 90’s total, FAU’s offense has gotten off to a sputtering start (not bad, not great).  UCF has looked every bit the team people expected.  This is at the Bounce House on a Friday night.  FAU’s defense has been pretty porous so far against quality opponents.  UCF’s defense has looked improved over last year.
    1. My Pick: UCF 52 FAU 31 (UCF -13.5)
    2. Formula: UCF SU (UCF -13.5)

 

The Rest:

  1. Tulsa @ Temple (-7.5)
    1. My Pick: Temple SU (Tulsa +7.5)
    2. Formula: Tulsa SU (Tulsa +7.5)
  2. 5 Penn St (-28.5) @ Illinois
    1. My Pick: PSU SU (PSU -28.5)
    2. Formula: PSU SU (Illini +28.5)
  3. Wash St @ USC (-3.5)
    1. My Pick: USC SU (USC -3.5)
    2. Formula: USC SU (WSU +3.5)
  4. 3 UGA (-14.5) @ 20 Missouri
    1. My Pick: UGA SU (UGA -14.5)
    2. Formula: UGA SU (UGA -14.5)
  5. Nebraska @ 11 Michigan (-18.5)
    1. My Pick: Mich SU (Neb +18.5)
    2. Formula: Mich SU (Mich -18.5)
  6. BC (-7) @ Purdue
    1. My Pick: BC SU (BC -7)
    2. Formula: BC SU (BC -7)
  7. Kent St @ Ole Miss (-28)
    1. My Pick: Miss SU (KSU +28)
    2. Formula: Miss SU (KSU +28)
  8. Buffalo (-6) @ Rutgers
    1. My Pick: Buffalo SU (Rut +6)
    2. Formula: Buffalo SU (Rut +6)
  9. Minn @ Maryland (-3)
    1. My Pick: MD SU (MD -3)
    2. Formula: Minn SU (Minn +3)
  10. Akron @ Iowa St (-18.5)
    1. My Pick: ISU SU (Akron +18.5)
    2. Formula: ISU SU (Akron +18.5)
  11. Ohio @ Cincinnati (-8)
    1. My Pick: Cinci SU (Cinci -8)
    2. Formula: Cinci SU (Cinci -8)
  12. Nevada @ Toledo (-10)
    1. My Pick: Toledo SU (Nevada +10)
    2. Formula Toledo SU (Nev +10)
  13. Navy (-7) @ SMU
    1. My Pick: Navy SU (Navy -7)
    2. Formula: TIE (SMU +7)
  14. Pitt (-4.5) @ UNC
    1. My Pick: Pitt SU (Pitt -4.5)
    2. Formula: Pitt SU (Pitt -4.5)
  15. Louisville @ UVA (-5)
    1. My Pick: UVA SU (UVA -5)
    2. Formula: UVA SU (UL +5)
  16. Western Michigan (-7.5) @ Georgia State
    1. My Pick: WMU SU (WMU -7.5)
    2. Formula: WMU SU (WMU -7.5)
  17. Miami (oh) (-5) @ Bowling Green
    1. My Pick: BGU SU (BGU +5)
    2. Formula: Miami SU (Push)
  18. Western Kentucky @ Ball St (-3)
    1. My Pick: WKU SU (WKU +3)
    2. Formula: Ball St SU (Ball -3)
  19. 6 Clemson (-17) @ Georgia Tech
    1. My Pick: Clem SU (GT +17)
    2. Formula: Clem SU (Clem -17)
  20. Tulane @ 2 Ohio St (-35.5)
    1. My Pick: OSU SU (OSU -35.5)
    2. Formula: OSU SU (OSU -35.5)
  21. Kansas St @ 12 WVU (-16)
    1. My Pick WVU SU (WVU -16)
    2. Formula: WVU SU (PUSH)
  22. 9 Virginia Tech (-27.5) @ Old Dominion
    1. My Pick: VT SU (ODU +27.5)
    2. Formula: VT SU (VT -27.5)
  23. FIU @ Miami (-26.5)
    1. My Pick: Miami SU (FIU +26.5)
    2. Formula: Miami SU (FIU +26.5)
  24. Charlotte @ UMASS (-9)
    1. My Pick: Charlotte SU (Char +9)
    2. Formula: Charlotte SU (Char +9)
  25. Northern Illinois @ Florida State (-10)
    1. My Pick: FSU SU (FSU -10)
    2. Formula: FSU SU (FSU -10)
  26. Kansas @ Baylor (-7.5)
    1. My Pick: Kansas SU (Kan +7.5)
    2. Formula: Baylor SU (Kan +7.5)
  27. Arizona (-7) @ Oregon St
    1. My Pick: Arizona SU (Oreg St +7)
    2. Formula: AZ SU (OSU +7)
  28. South Carolina (-2) @ Vandy
    1. My Pick: Vandy SU (Vandy +2)
    2. Formula: Vandy SU (Vandy +2)
  29. UCONN @ Cuse (-27.5)
    1. My Pick: Cuse SU (UCONN +27.5)
    2. Formula: Cuse SU (Cuse -27.5)
  30. North Texas (-13.5) @ Liberty
    1. My Pick: NT SU (NT -13.5)
    2. Formula: NT SU (Lib +13.5)
  31. Army @ 4 Oklahoma (-31.5)
    1. My Pick: OU SU (OU -31.5)
    2. Formula: OU SU (OU -31.5)
  32. Louisiana Tech @ 7 LSU (-20)
    1. My Pick: LSU SU (LSU -20)
    2. Formula: LSU SU (LSU -20)
  33. 13 Mississippi St (MSU -10) @ 19 Kentucky
    1. My Pick: MSU SU (MSU -10)
    2. Formula: MSU SU (UK +10)
  34. Texas Tech @ 14 Oklahoma St (-13)
    1. My Pick: Ok St SU (Ok St -13)
    2. Formula: Ok St SU (TT +13)
  35. Rice @ Southern Mississippi (-14.5)
    1. My Pick: USM SU (Rice +14.5)
    2. Formula: USM SU (Rice +14.5)
  36. Texas St @ UTSA (-7.5)
    1. My Pick: UTSA SU (UTSA -7.5)
    2. Formula: UTSA SU (TSU +7.5)
  37. UNLV @ Arkansas St (-7.5)
    1. My Pick: ASU SU (ASU -7.5)
    2. Formula: UNLV SU (UNLV +7.5)
  38. Coastal Carolina @ Louisiana (-4)
    1. My Pick: CC SU (CC +4)
    2. Formula: CC SU (CC +4)
  39. Troy (-6) @ La-Monroe
    1. My Pick: Troy SU (Troy -6)
    2. Formula: Troy SU (ULM +6)
  40. NCSU (-6) @ Marshall
    1. My Pick: NCSU SU (NCSU -6)
    2. Formula: NCSU SU (NCSU -6)
  41. 18 UF (-4.5) @ Tennessee
    1. My Pick: UF SU (UF -4.5)
    2. Formula: UF SU (UF -4.5)
  42. Arkansas @ 10 Auburn (-29)
    1. My Pick: Auburn SU (Aub -29)
    2. Formula: Auburn SU (Ark +29)
  43. Michigan St (-4.5) @ Indiana
    1. My Pick: Indiana SU (Ind +4.5)
    2. Formula: MSU SU (Ind +4.5)
  44. New Mexico St (-3) @ UTEP
    1. My Pick: UTEP SU (UTEP +3)
    2. Formula: UTEP SU (UTEP +3)
  45. East Carolina @ South Florida (-22)
    1. My Pick: USF SU (ECU +22))
    2. Formula: USF SU (ECU +22)
  46. South Alabama @ Memphis (-29.5)
    1. My Pick: Mem SU (USA +29.5)
    2. Formula: Mem SU (USA +29.5)
  47. Air Force @ Utah St (-10.5)
    1. My Pick: USU SU (USU -10.5)
    2. Formula: USU SU (USU -10.5)
  48. Arizona St @ 17 Washington (-17.5)
    1. My Pick: Wash SU (ASU +17.5)
    2. Formula: Wash SU (ASU +17.5)
  49. Eastern Michigan @ San Diego St (-10.5)
    1. My Pick: SDSU SU (EMU +10.5)
    2. Formula: SDSU (EMU +10.5)

Picks in Bold are my best bets.

Good Luck to all teams and have fun watching

Week 3 Preview

Formula continues to beat up on me both Straight Up and Against the Spread.

Straight up (Big-Games):

Me = 11-3

Formula = 11-3

 

ATS (Big Games):

Me = 4-9

Formula = 4-9

 

Straight up (all-Games):

Me = 65-26 (71%)

Formula = 74-19 (80%)

 

ATS:

Me = 33-53 (38%)

Formula = 48-39 (55%)

 

This week there are a couple good match-ups but overall a down week.  Still have a few that will picture into the Playoff Picture. One more that could have, but was canceled due to Hurricane Florence (be safe).

Without further adieu here are this weeks games.

Big Games:

  1. 7 Boise St @ 24 Oklahoma St – Both teams have crushed weaker opponents so far this year.  First big test for both teams.  Boise St has a history of big upsets in these types of games, granted most of them were under Peterson and not Harsin, the availability is there.  Boise St seems to be playing very well and looks like they may have a NY6 bowl type of team. Think it’ll be a higher scoring game.
    1. My Pick: Boise St 35 Oklahoma St 31 (Boise -2.5)
    2. Formula: Boise St SU (Boise -2.5)
  2. 8 LSU @ 5 Auburn – Big SEC match-up here with Divisional, Conference, and National implications on the line.  Last year LSU beat Auburn at home by 3, 2 years ago Auburn won at home by 5.  Look for another close match-up. Both defenses should have good days. Very even match-up all around.
    1. My Pick: Auburn 24 LSU 14 (Aub -9.5)
    2. Formula Auburn SU (LSU +9.5)
  3. 2 Ohio St @ TCU – Neither team has faced any competition thus far. TCU started slow against SMU and looked in for a scare but ended up throttling them. Ohio St has dispatched of both opponents rather easily. Both teams are among the favorites for their respective conferences. So there is National implications on the line here.  With a win either team can greatly increase their resume and be Playoff Contenders. Both defenses have been stellar this year thus far. Ohio St’s offense has looked very good and TCU’s above average.
    1. My Pick: Ohio St 34  TCU 24 (TCU +13)
    2. Formula Ohio St SU (Ohio St -13)
  4. Washington @ Utah – Conference foes that have excellent defenses.  Washington has won both of the last 2 meetings buy 1 score (3 points in ’17 and 7 points in ’16).  I expect both defenses to really battle it out and slow this game down. Washington has a superior (far) offense and that might be the difference in this game as Browning has done very well against Utah the last 2 years.
    1. My Pick: Washington 24 Utah 14 (Wash -7)
    2. Formula: Washington SU (Wash -7)
  5. USC @ Texas – These 2 historic powers faced off last year with USC winning by 3 through the arm of Sam Darnold. Darnold is gone. Texas returns a lot.  It also is in Texas this year on the 2nd leg of a Home and Home (@USC last year). Both defenses should dominate this game and see a low scoring affair.
    1. My Pick: Texas 24 USC 21 (PUSH)
    2. Formula: USC SU (USC +3)
  6. Florida State @ Syracuse – Syracuse has not beaten FSU since the 1960’s (their lone win against FSU). FSU has won the last 10. Syracuse’s offense has been on fire against weaker opponents and FSU is mis-firing early in Taggart’s tenure.  If FSU does not get it going this could be a big win for Syracuse.  Look for FSU to continue to struggle as new schemes are implemented.  How much they struggle will be key here.  FSU won by 3 last year over Syracuse.
    1. My Pick: FSU 31 Syracuse 27 (FSU -3)
    2. Formula: FSU SU (FSU -3)

 

The Rest:

  1. Boston College (-5.5) @ Wake Forest
    1. My Pick: BC SU (BC -5.5)
    2. Formula: BC SU (BC -5.5)
  2. Georgia St @ Memphis
    1. My Pick: Memphis SU (Memphis -27.5)
    2. Formula: Memphis SU (GSU +27.5)
  3. Temple @ Maryland
    1. My Pick: MD SU (MD -16)
    2. Formula: MD SU (MD -16)
  4. 3 Oklahoma @ Iowa St
    1. My Pick: OU SU (OU -17)
    2. Formula: OU SU (OU -17)
  5. Rutgers @ Kansas
    1. My Pick: Rutgers SU (Rut +3)
    2. Formula: Rutgers SU (Rut +3)
  6. Troy @ Nebraska
    1. My Pick: Nebraska SU (Neb -11.5)
    2. Formula: Neb SU (Neb -11.5)
  7. Ball St @ Indiana
    1. My Pick: Indiana SU (Ind -16.5)
    2. Formula: Indiana SU (BSU +16.5)
  8. Kent St @ 10 Penn St
    1. My Pick: PSU SU (PSU -35)
    2. Formula: PSU SU (KSU +35)
  9. Miami @ Toledo
    1. My Pick: Miami SU (Miami -10)
    2. Formula: Miami SU (Miami -10)
  10. UTEP @ Tennessee
    1. My Pick: Tenn SU (Tenn -30.5)
    2. Formula: Tenn SU (Tenn -30.5)
  11. Hawaii @ Army
    1. My Pick: Army SU (Army -7)
    2. Formula: Hawaii SU (Hawaii +7)
  12. Georgia Tech @ Pittsburgh
    1. My Pick: GT SU (GT -4.5)
    2. Formula: GT SU (Pitt -4.5)
  13. Tulane @ UAB
    1. My Pick: UAB SU (UAB +4)
    2. Formula: Tulane SU (Tulane -4)
  14. 18 Vandy @ 20 ND
    1. My Pick: ND SU (ND -14)
    2. Formula: Vandy SU (Vandy +14)
  15. Georgia Southern @ 6 Clemson
    1. My Pick: Clem SU (GSU +33)
    2. Formula: Clem SU (GSU +33)
  16. USF @ Illinois
    1. My Pick: USF SU (Illini -10)
    2. Formula: USF SU (Illini -10)
  17. SMU @ 12 Michigan
    1. My Pick: Mich SU (Mich -35)
    2. Formula: Mich SU (Mich -35)
  18. Miami (Oh) @ Minnesota
    1. My Pick: Minn SU (Minn -14.5)
    2. Formula: Minn SU (Minn -14.5)
  19. BYU @ 15 Wisconsin
    1. My Pick: Wisc SU (Wisc -21)
    2. Formula: Wisc SU (BYU +21)
  20. Central Mich @ Northern Illinois
    1. My pick: NIU SU (NIU -14)
    2. Formula: NIU SU (CMU +14)
  21. Duke @ Baylor
    1. My Pick: Duke SU (Duke +6.5)
    2. Formula: Duke SU (Duke +6.5)
  22. Southern Miss @ Appalachian St
    1. My Pick: App St SU (USM +16)
    2. Formula: App St SU (UMS +16)
  23. UTSA @ Kansas St
    1. My Pick: KSU SU (KSU -21.5)
    2. Formula: KSU SU (UTSA +21.5)
  24. Colorado St @ Florida
    1. My Pick: UF SU (CSU +20)
    2. Formula: UF SU (CSU +20)
  25. North Texas @ Arkansas
    1. My Pick: Ark SU (Ark -7.5)
    2. Formula: Ark SU (NT +7.5)
  26. Houston @ Texas Tech
    1. My Pick: Houston SU (Hou -1)
    2. Formula: Hous SU (Hou -1)
  27. Ohio @ Virginia
    1. My Pick: UVA SU (UVA -3.5)
    2. Formula: UVA SU (UVA -3.5)
  28. San Jose St @ 23 Oregon
    1. My Pick: Oregon SU (SJSU +41)
    2. Formula: Oregon SU (SJSU +41)
  29. Eastern Michigan @ Buffalo
    1. My Pick: Buffalo SU (Buff -4.5)
    2. Formula: Buffalo SU (EMU +4.5)
  30. Old Dominion @ Charlotte
    1. My Pick: Charlotte SU (Char +1.5)
    2. Formula: Charlotte SU (Char +1.5)
  31. Oregon St @ Nevada
    1. My Pick: Oregon St SU (OSU +3.5)
    2. Formula: OSU SU (OSU +3.5)
  32. 1 Alabama @ 19 Ole Miss
    1. My Pick: Alabama SU (Bama -21)
    2. Formula: Alabama SU (PUSH)
  33. Arkansas St @ Tulsa
    1. My Pick: ASU SU (ASU -1.5)
    2. Formula: Tulsa SU (Tulsa +1.5)
  34. Texas St @ South Alabama
    1. My Pick: USA SU (TSU +10.5)
    2. Formula: USA SU (TSU +10.5)
  35. MTSU @ 4 Georgia
    1. My Pick: Georgia SU (UGA -32.5)
    2. Formula: UGA SU (UGA -32.5)
  36. Akron @ Northwestern
    1. My Pick: Northwestern SU (Akron +21.5)
    2. Formula: NW SU (Akron +21.5)
  37. 21 Missouri @ Purdue
    1. My Pick: Mizzou SU (Mizzou -7.5)
    2. Formula: Mizzou SU (Mizzou -7.5)
  38. Marshall @ South Carolina
    1. My Pick: USC SU (USC -13.5)
    2. Formula: USC SU (Marshall +13.5)
  39. Louisiana @ 16 Mississippi St
    1. My Pick: MSU SU (La +33)
    2. Formula: MSU SU (La +33)
  40. La-Monroe @ Texas AM
    1. My Pick: TAMU SU (TAMU -27)
    2. Formula: TAMU SU (ULM +27)
  41. Western KY @ Louisville
    1. My Pick: UL SU (UL -23)
    2. Formula: UL SU (UL -23)
  42. UMASS @ Florida Int’l
    1. My Pick: FIU SU (FIU -4)
    2. Formula: FIU SU (FIU -4)
  43. New Mexico @ New Mexico St
    1. My Pick: NM SU (NM -5)
    2. Formula: NM SU (NM -5)
  44. Fresno St @ UCLA
    1. My Pick: UCLA SU
    2. Formula: UCLA SU
  45. 22 Arizona St @ San Diego St
    1. My Pick: ASU SU (ASU -5)
    2. Formula: ASU SU (ASU -5)

Be Safe and have fun watching Football.

Week 2 Preview

Was a mixed bag last week for me.  Did great Straight up, but awful Against The Spread.  Formula did better in  both aspects.

Straight up (Big-Games):

Me = 6-2

Formula = 5-3

 

ATS (Big Games):

Me = 2-6

Formula = 2-6

 

Straight up (all-Games):

Me = 31-12

Formula = 34-9

 

ATS:

Me = 15-25

Formula = 21-19

 

Looking for a better week this week ATS.  Pretty slim pickings for games this week, but we do have Two (2) ranked match-ups and a few others that are intriguing. Again we will give my picks and the Formula’s picks for every game, with a short write-up on the big games:

 

Big Games:

  1. 5 Georgia (-10) @ South Carolina – SEC East rivalry game.  Game could go a long way in determining who wins the SEC East, as both are 2 of the favorites in that division.  Georgia is the favorite, but winning in Columbia is no cake-walk. Last year Georgia won 24-10 in Athens.  Neither team has a significant advantage in experience, although Georgia has a significant talent advantage.
    1. My Pick – Georgia 24 – South Carolina 14 (PUSH)
    2. Formula – Georgia Straight up (UGA -10)
  2. 4 Clemson (-12) @ Texas A&M – These teams have no seen each other, but the coaches have a nice little rivalry going in Jimbo Fisher and Dabo Swinney, so they are very familiar with each other.  The home of the 12th man is no easy place to gain a victory and Jimbo knows how to play against Clemson.  Clemson has the clear advantage here in both talent and experience. TAMU should struggle to score (as anyone does against Clemson). If Lawrence plays QB for Clemson this one could potentially get ugly, if not TAMU should be able to hang around.
    1. My Pick – Clemson 31 – TAMU 17 (Clemson -12)
    2. Formula – Clemson SU (Clemson -12)
  3. 17 Southern Cal @ 11 Stanford (5.5) – Pac 12 rivalry game.  A win will catapult the winner into the Playoff picture, a loss will not drop either out of the picture.  Last year USC won at home 42-24. Both teams are pretty equal in talent and experience.  Should be a close game.  Question is going to be if Stanford can hit some shots in the passing game and open up some room for Heisman Candidate Bryce Love.
    1. My Pick – Stanford 31 – USC 28 (USC +5.5)
    2. Formula – Stanford SU (USC +5.5)
  4. Iowa (-4) @ Iowa St – Good early season rivalry game here.  Iowa won last year in a shoot-out 44-41. This year it shifts to a home game for Iowa St. Both teams are pretty equal talent wise and Iowa St has more experience coming back.
    1. My Pick – Iowa St 41 – Iowa 38 (Iowa St +4)
    2. Formula – Iowa SU (PUSH)
  5. Penn St (-9) @ Pittsburgh – another traditional early season rivalry game. Last year Penn St won 33-14, but last time in Pittsburgh, Pitt upset Penn St (and ended up being the game that kept them out of the playoff). Penn St has gotten significantly more talented since then with top recruiting classes, Pitt has not.
    1. My Pick – Penn St 34 – Pitt 21 (PSU -9)
    2. Formula – Penn St SU (Pitt +9)
  6. Georgia Tech (-3.5) @ South Florida – One of the few Power 5 v Group of 5 games where there isn’t a significant talent advantage.  With the Group of 5 team being at home that presents a unique challenge for Georgia Tech.  They do have an experience advantage.  Will Paul Johnson’s Triple Option offense be able to control the ball and make plays when needed against a fast and scrappy USF defense?
    1. My Pick – USF 25 – GT 17 (USF +3.5)
    2. Formula – USF SU (USF +3.5)

 

The Rest:

  1. TCU @ SMU
    1. My Pick – TCU SU (TCU -22.5)
    2. Formula – TCU SU (SMU +22.5)
  2. 23 Mississippi St @ Kansas St
    1. My Pick – Miss St SU (KSU +9)
    2. Formula – Miss St SU (Miss St -9)
  3. Western Mich @ 13 Michigan
    1. My Pick – Michigan SU (WMU +28)
    2. Formula – Michigan SU (WMU +28)
  4. Duke @ Northwestern
    1. My Pick – Northwestern SU (NW -2.5)
    2. Formula – Duke SU (Duke +2.5)
  5. Eastern Michigan @ Purdue
    1. My Pick – Purdue SU (Purdue -16.5)
    2. Formula – Purdue SU (EMU +16.5)
  6. New Mexico @ 19 Wisconsin
    1. My Pick – Wisconsin SU (NM +34.5)
    2. Formula – Wisconsin SU (Wisconsin -34.5)
  7. Nevada @ 24 Vanderbilt
    1. My Pick – Vandy SU (Nevada +8.5)
    2. Formula – Vandy SU (Vandy -8.5)
  8. Arizona @ Houston
    1. My Pick – Houston SU (Hou -4)
    2. Formula – Houston SU (AZ +4)
  9. Liberty @ Army
    1. My Pick – Army SU (Army -9.5)
    2. Formula – Liberty SU (Liberty +9.5)
  10. Georgia St @ NC State
    1. My Pick – NCSU SU (GSU +24.5)
    2. Formula – NCSU SU (GSU +24.5)
  11. UCLA @ 2 Oklahoma
    1. My Pick – OU SU (OU -32)
    2. Formula – OU SU (OU -32)
  12. Air Force @ FAU
    1. My Pick – FAU SU (FAU -9.5)
    2. Formula – FAU SU (AFA +9.5)
  13. Kansas @ Central Michigan
    1. My Pick – CMU SU (CMU -5)
    2. Formula – CMU SU (CMU -5)
  14. Buffalo @ Temple
    1. My Pick – Temple SU (Temple -4.5)
    2. Formula – Buffalo SU (Buffalo +4.5)
  15. Colorado @ Nebraska
    1. My Pick – Nebraska SU (Neb -3.5)
    2. Formula – Colorado SU (Color +3.5)
  16. Rutgers @ 3 Ohio St
    1. My Pick – Ohio St SU (Ohio St -35)
    2. Formula – Ohio St SU (Rutgers +35)
  17. Arkansas St @ 1 Alabama
    1. My Pick – Alabama SU (Alabama -36)
    2. Formula – Alabama SU (Alabama -36)
  18. North Carolina @ East Carolina
    1. My Pick – UNC SU (ECU +17)
    2. Formula – UNC SU (UNC -17)
  19. Memphis @ Navy
    1. My Pick – Memphis SU (Navy +7.5)
    2. Formula – Memphis SU (Memphis -7.5)
  20. Ball St @ 9 Notre Dame
    1. My Pick – ND SU (ND -37.5)
    2. Formula – ND SU (ND -37.5)
  21. 18 Maryland @ Bowling Green
    1. My Pick – MD SU (BGU +16)
    2. Formula – MD SU (MD -16)
  22. UMASS @ Georgia Southern
    1. My Pick – Georgia Southern SU (GSU -2.5)
    2. Formula – GSU SU (GSU -2.5)
  23. Appalachian St @ Charlotte
    1. My Pick – App St SU (ASU -14)
    2. Formula – App St SU (ASU -14)
  24. Wyoming @ 25 Missouri
    1. My Pick – Missouri SU (Wyoming +18.5)
    2. Formula – Missouri SU (Mizzou -18.5)
  25. La-Monroe @ Southern Miss
    1. My Pick – USM SU (USM -5.5)
    2. Formula – ULM SU (ULM +5.5)
  26. UAB @ Coastal Carolina
    1. My Pick – UAB SU (UAB -10)
    2. Formula – UAB SU (CC +10)
  27. Baylor @ UTSA
    1. My Pick – Baylor SU (UTSA +15.5)
    2. Formula – Baylor SU (Baylor -15.5)
  28. Virginia @ Indiana
    1. My Pick – Indiana SU (Indiana -6.5)
    2. Formula – Indiana SU (UVA +6.5)
  29. Fresno St @ Minnesota
    1. My Pick – Minnesota SU (Minn -2.5)
    2. Formula – Minn SU (Minn -2.5)
  30. Utah @ Northern Illinois
    1. My Pick – Utah SU (Utah -10)
    2. Formula – Utah SU (Utah -10)
  31. Kentucky @ 12 Florida
    1. My pick – Florida SU (UF -13.5)
    2. Formula – Florida SU (UK +13.5)
  32. Arkansas @ Colorado St
    1. My Pick – Arkansas SU (Ark -14)
    2. Formula – Arkansas SU (Ark -14)
  33. Florida International @ Old Dominion
    1. My Pick – FIU SU
    2. Formula – FIU SU
  34. South Alabama @ Oklahoma St
    1. My Pick – OSU SU (OSU -32)
    2. Formula – OSU SU (USA +32)
  35. New Mexico St @ Utah St
    1. My Pick – USU SU (NMSU +24)
    2. Formula – USU SU (USU -24)
  36. Cincinnati @ Miami (ohio)
    1. My Pick – MU SU (MU -1)
    2. Formula – Cincinnati SU (CU +1)
  37. Tulsa @ Texas
    1. My Pick – Texas SU (Tulsa +23)
    2. Formula – Texas SU (Tulsa +23)
  38. UTEP @ UNLV
    1. My Pick – UNLV SU (UNLV -23.5)
    2. Formula – UNLV SU (UTEP +23.5)
  39. Cal @ BYU
    1. My Pick – Cal SU (Cal +3)
    2. Formula – Cal SU (Cal +3)
  40. UCONN @ 14 Boise St
    1. My Pick – Boise SU (Boise -31.5)
    2. Formula – Boise SU (Boise -31.5)
  41. Michigan St @ 21 Arizona St
    1. My Pick – MSU SU (MSU -6)
    2. Formula – ASU SU (ASU +6)
  42. San Jose ST @ Washington St
    1. My Pick – Wash St SU (WSU -34.5)
    2. Formula – WSU SU (SJSU +34.5)

 

Have fun watching the games.

Week 1-2018

Last year I was correct on 67% of the picks (both big games and all games). I’ll look to build on that success this year.  Also this year I will also put down the formula’s picks ATS, as well as compare the Formula’s Straight Up picks for all games with my own.

1-Big Games – Games between Ranked opponents, each Power 5 conferences biggest game, and biggest game for Group of 5. Usually will be 6-7 games, sometimes more depending on the quality of match-ups. Will usually include some kind of write-up and score prediction.

2-All Games – The Rest of the games between FBS opponents.

All Games will include The Formula’s pick Straight up and ATS, as well as My own picks.

 

Big Games:

Lot of big games in week 1, as is usually the case with a lot of Prime-Time Out of Conference match-ups. Four games feature ranked opponents facing off, one has a ranked opponent on the road against a quality opponent, and a few other games to round it out.

  1. Florida Atlantic @ 13 Oklahoma (-20.5) – At first glance you may think, why is this game on here.  FAU has a very potent offense with an NFL caliber running back (and lots of Power 5 transfers).  Oklahoma has a very porous defense that doesn’t look to be much better.  FAU returns a lot on both sides of the ball of a very good team. OU loses a heisman winner.  This should be a high scoring affair, and FAU will keep it closer than many would expect.
    1. My Pick – OU 41 – FAU 35 (FAU +20.5)
    2. Formula – Oklahoma SU (FAU +20.5)
  2. 18 Tennessee v West Virginia (-10) – Best match-up for a Big 12 school. Also a very intriguing one.  New coach for Tennessee and a Heisman candidate at QB for WVU.  Will be interesting to see how much success Grier can have against a Pruitt defense.  Pruitt’s defenses at new locations have typically started slow against quality opponents, before hitting stride mid-season (year 1).
    1. My Pick – WVU 31 – Tenn 28 (Tenn +10)
    2. Formula – Tennessee SU (Tenn +10)
  3. San Diego St @ 10 Stanford (-14) – Another game that you might question why is it here.  Last year Stanford went to San Diego and lost 20-17.  This year SDSU travels to Stanford.  Stanford returns a good amount including Heisman candidate at RB. San Diego St was led by their defense and RB last year, much of the defense is gone as is Penny the RB. This game should look significantly different than last year’s Defensive slug-fest.
    1. My Pick – Stanford 34 – SDSU 21 (SDSU +14)
    2. Formula – Stanford SU (Stanford -14)
  4. 8 Washington v 7 Auburn (-2) – Perhaps the biggest game of the day.  Both were in the Playoff Hunt last year and look to be in it again this year. Washington is the favorite for the Pac 12 Championship, and Auburn is one of the better teams in the SEC (will come down to their game against Alabama, again).  Both teams return a lot from last year’s very good teams. Particularly on offense.  Both teams have been prolific defensively the last several years and inconsistent offensively.  This game will come down to which offense can find consistency.
    1. My Pick – Auburn 27 – Washington 24 (Auburn – 2)
    2. Formula – Auburn SU (Washington +2)
  5. Boise St (-10.5) @ Troy – Boise St is not ranked by SF, but they are ranked in both media polls.  Should be 2 of the better Group of 5 teams. Boise St is very well balanced and Troy despite losing a bunch should still have a quality defense, and make a run at the Sun Belt championship.
    1. My Pick – Boise St 28 – Troy 24 (Troy +10.5)
    2. Formula – Boise St SU (Troy +10.5)
  6. 9 Michigan @ 19 Notre Dame (-1) – The old rivalry is back. They have been playing this game since 1887 mostly yearly (with a few hiatus’). They haven’t played since 2014 when ND moved their sports to the ACC. The 5th year seniors have faced off once with Notre Dame winning by 31, but a LOT has changed since then. ND returns a good amount of players off of a top 15 team. Michigan returns a good amount as well, but has recruited very well over the last several years.  Both defenses should be top 20 defenses, with ND having the better offense, although that remains to be seen with Harbaugh now having a quality QB.
    1. My Pick – Notre Dame 21 – Michigan 17 (ND -1)
    2. Formula – Michigan SU (Michigan +1)
  7. 23 Miami (-3.5) v 14 LSU – Both teams had good defenses last year, albeit in different ways. Miami was a big play defense that you could move the ball on, LSU was tough to move the ball on. LSU is adept at running the ball, although they lost star RB Derrius Guice. Miami had a balanced offense a year ago. Both Quarterbacks leave a lot to be desired.  I think Miami’s defense will come back down to earth this year and not create so many turnovers, although they will be tougher to move the ball against. However in game 1 against LSU I think we will see the Turnover Chain a decent amount.
    1. My Pick – Miami 24 – LSU 17 (Miami -3.5)
    2. Formula – LSU SU (LSU +3.5)
  8. Virginia Tech @ 5 FSU (-7.5) – Lot of unknowns in this game. How will FSU look with new coach and new schemes? How will VT do on defense with so many suspensions and departures? The new staff at FSU and huge shift in culture should create a lot of buzz and excitement in game 1. Should see a vastly improved FSU team over last years 7-6 team. Would be foolish to expect VT to fall to far with Fuente/Foster manning the helm, should still put together a borderline top 25, 8+ win season.
    1. My Pick – FSU 31 – VT 21 (FSU -7.5)
    2. Formula – FSU SU (FSU -7.5)

The Rest:

  1. Appalachian St @ 3 Penn St
    1. My Pick – Penn St SU (Penn St -23.5)
    2. Formula – Penn St SU (PSU -23.5)
  2. Wake Forest @ Tulane
    1. My Pick – Wake SU (Wake -6)
    2. Formula – Wake SU (Wake -6)
  3. Syracuse @ Western Michigan
    1. My Pick – Cuse SU (Cuse -5)
    2. Formula – Cuse SU (Cuse -5)
  4. Army @ Duke
    1. My Pick – Duke SU (Army +13.5)
    2. Formula – Duke SU (Duke -13.5)
  5. UMASS @ BC
    1. My Pick – BC SU (BC -18)
    2. Formula – BC SU (BC -18)
  6. UNC @ Cal
    1. My Pick – Cal SU (Cal -7.5)
    2. Formula – Cal SU (Cal -7.5)
  7. Louisville @ 1 Alabama
    1. My Pick – Bama SU (UL +24.5)
    2. Formula – Bama SU (UL +24.5)
  8. 24 UCF @ UCONN
    1. My Pick – UCF SU (UCONN +23.5)
    2. Formula – UCF SU (UCF -23.5)
  9. Houston @ Rice
    1. My Pick – Houston SU (Rice +25.5)
    2. Formula – Houston SU (Rice +25.5)
  10. Cincinnati @ 25 UCLA
    1. My Pick – UCLA SU (UCLA -15)
    2. Formula – UCLA SU (UCLA – 15)
  11. SMU @ North Texas
    1. My Pick – SMU SU (SMU -4.5)
    2. Formula – SMU SU (SMU -4.5)
  12. Navy @ Hawaii
    1. My Pick – Navy SU (Navy -11)
    2. Formula – Navy SU (Navy -11)
  13. 17 Texas v Maryland
    1. My Pick – Texas SU (Texas -13.5)
    2. Formula – Texas SU (Maryland +13.5)
  14. Ole Miss v Texas Tech
    1. My Pick – Ole Miss SU (Ole Miss +2.5)
    2. Formula – Ole Miss SU (Ole Miss +2.5)
  15. New Mexico St @ Minnesota
    1. My Pick – Minnesota SU (Minn – 21)
    2. Formula – Minnesota SU (Minn -21)
  16. Northwestern @ Purdue
    1. My Pick – Purdue SU (Purdue -1)
    2. Formula – Northestern SU (Northwestern +1)
  17. Utah St @ 20 Michigan St
    1. My Pick – MSU SU (USU +23.5)
    2. Formula – MSU SU ( USU +23.5)
  18. Western Kentucky @ 6 Wisconsin
    1. My Pick – Wisc SU (Wisc -34)
    2. Formula – Wisc SU (Wisc -34)
  19. Oregon St @ 11 Ohio St
    1. My Pick – Ohio St SU (Oregon St +38.5)
    2. Formula – Ohio St SU (Oregon St +38.5)
  20. Kent St @ Illinois
    1. My Pick – Illinois SU (Ilini -16.5)
    2. Formula – Illinois SU (Kent St +16.5)
  21. Texas St @ Rutgers
    1. My Pick – Rutgers SU (Texas St +16)
    2. Formula – Rutgers SU (Texas St +16)
  22. Northern Illinois @ Iowa
    1. My Pick – Iowa SU (NIU +10.5)
    2. Formula – Iowa SU (Iowa -10.5)
  23. Indiana @ FIU
    1. My Pick – Indiana SU (Ind -10.5)
    2. Formula – Indiana SU (Ind -10.5)
  24. Akron @ Nebraska
    1. My Pick – Nebraska SU (Nebraska -24.5)
    2. Formula – Nebraska SU (Akron +24.5)
  25. Marshall @ Miami (Oh)
    1. My Pick – Marshall SU (Marshall -2.5)
    2. Formula – Marshall SU ( Marshall -2.5)
  26. Old Dominion
    1. My Pick – ODU SU (ODU -7)
    2. Formula – ODU SU (ODU -7)
  27. Louisiana Tech @ South Alabama
    1. My Pick – USA SU (USA +10.5)
    2. Formula – LT SU (USA +10.5)
  28. Middle Tennessee St @ Vanderbilt
    1. My Pick – MTSU SU (MTSU +3)
    2. Formula – Vandy SU (MTSU +3)
  29. UTSA @ Arizona St
    1. My Pick – ASU SU (ASU -18.5)
    2. Formula – ASU SU (ASU -18.5)
  30. BYU @ Arizona
    1. My Pick – Arizona SU (BYU +12)
    2. Formula – Arisona SU (BYU +12)
  31. Central Michigan @ Kentucky
    1. My Pick – Kentucky SU (Kentucky -17)
    2. Formula – Kentucky SU (CMU +17)
  32. Bowling Green @ Oregon
    1. My Pick – Oregon SU (Oregon -32)
    2. Formula – Oregon SU (Oregon -32)
  33. Colorado @ Colorado St
    1. My Pick – CU SU (CU -7.5)
    2. Formula – CU SU (CU -7.5)
  34. Washington St @ Wyoming
    1. My Pick – Wyoming SU (Wyoming +1)
    2. Formula – WSU SU (WSU -1)
  35. UNLV @ USC
    1. My Pick – USC SU (USC -26.5)
    2. Formula – USC SU (USC – 26.5)
  36. Coastal Carolina @ South Carolina
    1. My Pick – So Car SU (So Car -29.5)
    2. Formula – So Car SU (CC +29.5)

 

Have fun watching the games! Isn’t it great to have Football Back!!??!!

Coach Rankings

This is a objective measure as we try to have almost everything here at Simplified Football.

There are 3 components that went in to these rankings:

1-Game Coaching.  Using our formula for rating the teams and arriving at Win probabilities we have a formula that says how those teams have done in relation to what they “should” have done based on their talent/experience.

2-Wins.  Both pure wins and Wins Above Replacement (taking the previous years before the coach showed up and after if he has left)

3-Recruiting.  Few aspects here.  Pure Recruiting rankings, recruiting rankings compared to others at school (before and after), and rankings compared to your geographical peers (Power 5 Southern, Power 5 West Coast, Group of 5 Southern, ec).

This is a ranking of what these coaches have done the last 5 years.

Top 25 coaches

  1. Nick Saban (Alabama)
  2. David Shaw (Stanford)
  3. Mark Dantonio (Michigan St)
  4. Urban Meyer (Ohio St)
  5. Dabo Swinney (Clemson)
  6. Chris Peterson (Washington)
  7. James Franklin (Penn St)
  8. Rocky Long (San Diego St)
  9. Dan Mullen (Florida)
  10. Jimbo Fisher (Texas A&M)
  11. Gary Patterson (TCU)
  12. Doc Holliday (Marshall)
  13. Jeff Brohm (Purdue)
  14. Justin Fuente (Virginia Tech)
  15. David Cutcliffe (Duke)
  16. Bobby Petrino (Louisville)
  17. Gus Malzahn (Auburn)
  18. Mark Richt (Miami)
  19. Bryan Harsin (Boise St)
  20. Mike Leach (Texas Tech)
  21. Mike Gundy (Oklahoma St)
  22. Larry Fedora (UNC)
  23. Paul Chryst (Wisconsin)
  24. Kirk Ferentz (Iowa)
  25. Brian Kelly (Notre Dame)

To Note: Coaches who have 1-3  years of HC experience are not included in the above list.  To us it takes at least 4 years to truly see the value of an HC.  However here are the coaches who have coached less than 4 years that would have cracked the top 25.

Mike Norvell (Memphis) – 5th

Lincoln Riley (Oklahoma) – 7th

Scott Frost (Nebraska) – 8th

Tom Herman (Texas) – 12th

Kirby Smart (Georgia) – 16th

Jim Harbaugh (Michigan) – 22nd *his rankings from Stanford are not included*

Butch Davis (FIU) – 23rd *his rankings from UNC/Miami are not included*

Jason Candle (Toledo) – 24th

 

Top 20 Recruiters:

  1. James Franklin
  2. Urban Meyer
  3. Brian Kelly
  4. Nick Saban
  5. Jimbo Fisher
  6. David Shaw
  7. Dabo Swinney
  8. Mark Dantonio
  9. Gus Malzahn
  10. Jim Harbaugh
  11. Mark Stoops
  12. Bryan Harsin
  13. Chris Peterson
  14. Mark Richt
  15. Willie Taggart
  16. Mike Norvell
  17. Tom Herman
  18. Bobby Petrino
  19. Matt Rhule
  20. Larry Fedora

Others who would be top 20:

Kirby Smart (3rd)

Clay Helton (4th)

Luke Fickell (6th)

DJ Durkin (7th)

Scott Frost (8th)

Lincoln Riley (10th)

 

Top 20 Game Coaches:

  1. Ken Niumatalolo
  2. Bill Snyder
  3. Matt Wells
  4. Kirk Ferentz
  5. Jeff Brohm
  6. Scott Satterfield
  7. Chris Peterson
  8. Gary Patterson
  9. Justin Fuente
  10. Mark Dantonio
  11. David Shaw
  12. Dan Mullen
  13. Mike Gundy
  14. Troy Calhoun
  15. Paul Johnson
  16. Paul Chryst
  17. Rod Carey
  18. Matt Rhule
  19. Willie Fritz
  20. Kyle Whittingham

Others who would be on this list:

Mike Norvell (1st)

Jason Candle (4th)

Tom Herman (5th)

Lincoln Riley (9th)

Tom Allen (9th)

Justin Wilcox (16th)

Jeff Tedford (16th)

 

This would not just be X’s and O’s, but also player development, etc. These guys get more out of their players than other coaches do.

 

Again these are objective measures, not my personal rankings.

Simplified Football New Years Day Bowl Predictions

We have posted the Top 25 Rankings, and each conference prediction.  Here is the College Football Playoff and New Years 6 bowl projections:

Playoffs:

Orange Bowl – #1 Clemson v #4 Washington

Cotton Bowl – #2 Alabama v #3 Penn State

 

New Years Day Bowls:

Rose Bowl – #8 Ohio St v #9 Stanford

Peach Bowl – #11 UCF v # 12 FSU

Fiesta Bowl – #7 Auburn v #10 Wisconsin

Sugar Bowl – #5 Oklahoma v #6 Georgia

 

National Champ (Bay Area, CA) – Clemson v Alabama

National Champ = Clemson

Simplified Football Formula

This is a formula that Jason Staples and myself have been working on over the last 5 years.  It has many layers to it, and we continue to discuss it and tweak it every off-season.

Here is the basic run-down. Please understand I will not be specific on the numbers as it will divulge too much information on the formula itself, I just want to give the readers something to understand where it is coming from.

  1. The base of the formula comes from the recruiting star ranking. We use the 247 composite ratings (funny side note, before I knew the 247 composite ratings existed I was basically doing that myself using Rivals, Scout, and ESPN rankings.  Thankfully I found 247 composite ratings, that did that work for me) as they are generally the least biased (which is what we are going for).
  2. Once we have the star rating we add in 2 experience ratings: One is how many years they have been in college, and Two is how much starting experience they have. Also there are multipliers depending on positions as well.  The first year in college and the first year starting are generally worth more than subsequent years as well.
  3. We also have multipliers for players that get All-Conference, All-American, Freshman All-American, and individual Award recognition (Heisman, Thorpe, Butkus, etc).
  4. Last we have a multiplier for Coaching/Intangibles.  It is based on previous years performances. IE if a coach typically had his team performing at 7 points higher than what was expected from the formula, then that will go into the next year’s rankings. It is averaged out over 5 years as well.  It also takes into account trends. IE if a coach has year one at -5, year two at -2, year three at 2, and year four at 5, the average will be zero, but the trend would say they would be above 5, so the multiplier would end up closer to the trend than the average.

Regarding the Win-Shares.  Through much meticulous record keeping we were able to figure out how the percentage of how much each team wins given how much “better” they are than the other team.  IE a team that is X amount better than their opponent would be expected to win X% of the time.  This we have calculated both Away and Home.

This formula has no bias in it, it is completely objective.  The predictions do have some of my own bias in it (thus the differences between Win-Shares and predictions).  Thus the Ratings and Rankings are purely objective.  No I do not think FSU is the 5th best team going into the season, but that is objectively what the formula puts out. Nor do I think Florida is 15th, Tennessee 18th, or UCLA 25th. But I do think those teams have the talent capable of putting them in those spots.

Look at the Playoff Picture 2018

As we look at who has made the playoffs in each of the 4 years, you start to see a few patterns.

  1. Pattern 1 is that 14 of the 16 teams have had a Win-Share of 8.25 or higher.
    1. ALL have had a Win-Share or higher of 7 (6.99) or higher.
  2. Pattern 2 is that 15 of the 16 teams have had a SF Rating of 4.40 or higher.
    1. ALL have had a SF Rating of 4.1 or higher.
  3. Pattern 3 is that 15 of the 16 teams finished 19th or higher in the previous seasons final F/+ Ratings.
    1. ALL of them finished 54th or higher.
  4. Pattern 4 is that 14 of the 16 teams had 10 or more wins the previous season.
    1. ALL of them had 7 or more wins the previous season.

With that information you start to get a pretty clear picture of who is most likely to be in the playoffs.  There has never been more than 1 Outlier team to make the playoffs in a given year. So 3 of the playoff teams will come from the group of teams that meet all criteria, possibly all 4.  But all 4 teams will most likely have a Win-Share above 7, a SF rating of 4.1 or higher, finish higher than 54 in the final 2017 season F/+ ratings, and have 7 or more games in 2017.

 

Tier 1 = Meet all 4 of the higher criteria

Tier 2 = Meet at least 1 of the higher criteria and all outlier criteria

 

Here are the teams, listed by Tiers.

Tier 1:

  1. Clemson
  2. Penn St
  3. Ohio St
  4. Wisconsin
  5. Oklahoma
  6. Washington
  7. Southern California
  8. Alabama
  9. Auburn
  10. Georgia

Tier 2:

  1. FSU
  2. Miami
  3. Michigan
  4. Stanford
  5. Michigan St
  6. Oklahoma St
  7. LSU
  8. Miss St
  9. UCF
  10. Notre Dame
  11. Texas
  12. Oregon

 

There is close to 100% chance that:

  1. 3 of the 4 Playoff teams will come from the first Tier teams
  2. The National Champion will come from the first Tier teams
  3. The 2 Championship teams will come from the list of 22 teams.

About a 50% chance that:

  1. 1 of the Playoff teams will come from the second Tier teams

 

Big Games between Teams on these lists (big time Playoff implications in these games):

  1. Washington v Auburn (Week 1)
  2. Michigan at Notre Dame (Week 1)
  3. Miami v LSU (Week 1)
  4. Ohio St at Penn St (Week 5)
  5. Stanford at Notre Dame (Week 5)
  6. Texas v Oklahoma (Week 6)
  7. FSU at Miami (Week 6)
  8. Auburn at Miss St (Week 6)
  9. Washington at Oregon (Week 7)
  10. Georgia at LSU (Week 7)
  11. Michigan St at Penn St (Week 7)
  12. Wisconsin at Michigan (Week 7)
  13. Michigan at Michigan St (Week 8)
  14. Clemson at FSU (Week 9)
  15. Texas at Oklahoma St (Week 9)
  16. Stanford at Washington (Week 10)
  17. Penn St at Michigan (Week 10)
  18. Alabama at LSU (Week 10)
  19. Wisconsin at Penn St (Week 11)
  20. Auburn at Georgia (Week 11)
  21. Ohio St at Michigan St (Week 11)
  22. Oklahoma St at Oklahoma (Week 11)
  23. FSU at Notre Dame (Week 11)
  24. Notre Dame at USC (Week 13 – Rivalry Week)
  25. Michigan at Ohio St (Week 13 – Rivalry Week)
  26. Auburn at Alabama (Week 13 – Rivalry Week)

These games will do the most in deciding who will be contending for the Playoffs.  Of course a win in one of these games and you get a big boost.  A loss can probably be overcome.

Of course you can also add the Conference Championship games which will most likely be between teams on these lists as well (Alabama/Auburn/LSU/Miss St v Georgia, Penn St/Ohio St/Michigan/Mich St v Wisconsin, Clemson/FSU v Miami, OU/Texas/Ok St v each other, Washington/Stanford/Oregon v USC).

2018 Simplified Football Top 25

And we are back for the 2018 College Football Season.  Hope everyone had an enjoyable off-season.

Just a quick reminder of what the formula entails:

  1. Composite Star Recruiting Rankings
  2. Experience (Years in College, and Starts)
  3. Outstanding Player Bonus (Awards, All-American, All-Conference)
  4. Coaching Rating (Based on previous years)

 

Last Year’s Top 25 correctly had Alabama #1 (as they won the National Championship).

It had 2 of the top 5 correct

5 of the top 10

11 of the top 15

14 of the top 20

& 15 of the top 25

Only 1 team that finished in the Top 10 was not in the Simplified Football top 25 (UCF, although we did have UCF having a good year, no one predicted that).

Only 3 teams in the SF top 25 did not make a bowl (Florida, Tennessee, and Vanderbilt).

 

Here is this year’s Top 25:

  1. Alabama (5.13)
  2. Clemson (5.10)
  3. Penn St (4.99)
  4. Georgia (4.96)
  5. FSU (4.91)
  6. Wisconsin (4.84)
  7. Auburn (4.84)
  8. Washington (4.77)
  9. Michigan (4.77)
  10. Stanford (4.76)
  11. Ohio St (4.63)
  12. Southern Cal (4.63)
  13. Oklahoma (4.61)
  14. LSU (4.54)
  15. Florida (4.52)
  16. Missouri (4.48)
  17. Texas (4.45)
  18. Tennessee (4.42)
  19. Notre Dame (4.40)
  20. Michigan St (4.40)
  21. Mississippi St (4.39)
  22. Oregon (4.38)
  23. Miami (4.37)
  24. UCF (4.29)
  25. UCLA (4.23)

A few notes:

  • This appear as it could be a banner year for a Big 10 Ten. If someone comes out of their unscathed that will be a legit NC contender
  • Clemson and Alabama are easily the 2 best teams.
  • UCF has the highest pre-season rating for a Group of 5 school ever.
    • Of Note is FAU this year at 4.08 has the 2nd highest.
  • A few Head Coaches in the first year at current schools have a lot of talent to work with (FSU, Florida, Miss St, UCF, Tennessee, and UCLA), ALL should be able to have quick turn around’s at the new schools.
  • Probably the most wide-open year after Clemson and Alabama.  We can see about 13-14 schools getting those last 2 spots (after Clemson and Alabama).

 

Conference Rankings (new Feature):

  1. SEC – 4.38
  2. Pac12 – 4.17
  3. B1G – 4.12
  4. ACC – 4.12
  5. Big12 – 4.09
  6. AAC – 3.60
  7. MWC – 3.22
  8. CUSA – 3.22
  9. MAC – 3.16
  10. SBC – 3.05

Those are the Average School Ratings. The nation wide average is 3.71.

Good luck to all schools, all players, and all coaches this season!

Bowl Game Previews

Well it’s been another fun season.  All we have left are the bowls and the Playoffs.  According to our formula the committee got the correct 4 teams in.  Simplified Football had 1-Alabama, 2-Georgia, 3-Clemson, 4-Oklahoma, and 5-Ohio St.

Looking at the bowl Match-ups we had 61 of the 78 bowl eligible teams predicted correctly.

We’ll get straight into the Predictions. First the regular bowl games and then a write-up on the Playoff Games:

 

Troy 42 – North Texas 24

Western KY 24 – Georgia State 17

Boise St 34 – Oregon 31

Colorado St 34 – Marshall 27

Arkansas St 31 – Middle Tenn St 17

FAU 48 – Akron 14

SMU 41 – La Tech 38

FIU 24 – Temple 21

Ohio 31 – UAB 17

Wyoming 17 – Central Mich 13

USF 31 – Texas Tech 24

San Deigo St 34 – Army 31

Toledo 31 – App st 28

Fresno st 28 – Houston 24

UCLA 48 – Kansas St 41

Northern Illinois 17 – Duke 13

Utah 31 – West Virginia 28

FSU 28 – Southern Miss 14

Boston College 27 – Iowa 24

Texas 28 – Missouri 27

Arizona 38 – Purdue 35

Navy 21 – Virginia 18

Oklahoma St 28 – Virginia Tech 25

TCU 24 – Stanford 21

Washington St 17 – Michigan St 14

Wake Forest 24 – TAMU 21

NC state 42 – Arizona St 31

Northwestern 28 – Kentucky 17

Louisville 48 – Mississippi St 34

Memphis 42 – Iowa St 38

New Mexico St 24 – Utah St 20

Michigan 20 – South Carolina 10

LSU 27 – Notre Dame 21

Ohio St 38 – USC 28

Washington 28 – Penn St 24

Wisconsin 21 – Miami 19

Auburn 45 – UCF 35

 

Georgia vs Oklahoma:

This is a Match-up of a great offense against a great defense.  Oklahoma’s offense under Baker Mayfield has been extremely good this year.  Mayfield definitely deserved the Heisman with his play on the field.  They have scored and scored in bunches against anyone and everyone.  Georgia’s defense has done very well this year and limited some good offenses to low scoring outputs.  That will be a match-up to watch.  Oklahoma’s chances of winning will solely lie on Baker Mayfield. If he has a Heisman-esque game then Oklahoma will have the chance at winning this by out scoring Georgia.  Anything less than that and it’ll be a long night for Oklahoma.  Oklahoma’s defense has been very much maligned all season, for good reason.  Georgia has a very efficient offense and one of the top rushing attacks in America.  It will be very hard for OU to slow them down, baring some adrenaline stoked mom type performance (you know where a mom lifts up a car to save their trapped child). Mayfield will have a good day, but it won’t be enough as UGA wears them down and pulls away in the 2nd half.

Georgia 34 – Oklahoma 24

 

Clemson vs Alabama:

The Rubber Match! A rematch of the previous 2 years National Championship games.  There is one notable difference this year, rather absence. Rather 2.  Lane Kiffin and Deshaun Watson.  Both of those guys trumped great defenses and made the previous 2 matches into Shoot-outs.  Absent the offensive “Genius” of Kiffin and the brilliant play of Watson I think the defenses, which are again great, will dominate this match-up.  Both defenses are littered with future NFL players, particularly along the front 7. It will be tough sledding for 2 QBs that aren’t Deshaun Watson, and for the good running backs in this game. Neither offense are prone to turning it over so it will be a defensive slug-fest with low scores. I do expect the winner of this game to be the National Champ.

Alabama 21 – Clemson 17

 

That will set up an ALL SEC match-up in the Championship game of Georgia vs Alabama.   Kirby Smart against long time mentor Nick Saban.  The Teacher will beat the Pupil in this scenario.  Of course if it’s Clemson v Georgia then we have an entirely different and good story line as they are rivals who no longer play and are short distance from each other (about 1.5 hours).

 

Have fun this Bowl/Holiday Season.