Week 5 Preview

September 27, 2018 by Leave a Comment

Had a pretty equal week compared to the Formula.  Although it’s still up big on me for the year:

Straight up (Big-Games):

Me = 19-7

Formula = 19-7

 

ATS (Big Games):

Me = 11-12

Formula = 11-14

 

Straight up (all-Games):

Me = 141-53 (72.6%)

Formula = 146-50 (74.5%)

 

ATS:

Me = 86-100 (46.2%)

Formula = 98-89 (51.3%)

 

Last week I also started keeping track of my own personal picks ATS:

6-2 (pretty good week there).

 

This week I will also debut the formula’s Top 15:

1-Alabama

2-Ohio St

3-Penn St

4-Georgia

5-Clemson

6-Michigan

7-Oklahoma

8-Stanford

9-LSU

10-Auburn

11-West Virginia

12-Notre Dame

13-Florida

14-Kentucky

15-UCF

 

Playoff Match-ups as of now (taking into account future opponents):

1-Alabama/UGA winner v Oklahoma

2-Penn St/Ohio St winner v Clemson

Pac 12 is the odd conference out.

 

As of right now there are 21 teams that are undefeated.  In addition there are 25 Power 5 teams that have 1 loss. So the playoff field is down to about 46 teams that  can make the playoffs.  Although some of them have a few low chance even if they win out.

This week we have a few ranked match-ups (AP/Coaches/Formula). So it’s a pretty good weekend for football. Should start to put the playoff picture into focus.

 

Big Games:

  1. 19 Syracuse @ 5 Clemson (-22.5) – Last year Clemson traveled to Syracuse and received their only loss of the season (not including playoffs). Clemson has made a Quarterback change (with the previous starter transferring) this week.  Starting true Freshman Trevor Lawrence.  Lawrence has been very impressive and has outplayed incumbent starter Kelly Bryant  by a wide margin so far this season.  To most CFB fans it was just a matter of time before Lawrence took over full time.  Personally I think this change will put Clemson into a different stratosphere (IE Alabama and Clemson and everyone else).  Separate them from the pack (joining Alabama).  The formula will likely undervalue Clemson for the next few weeks as it factors in Bryant starting the first 4 games.
    1. My Pick: Clemson 38 – Syracuse 21 (Clemson -22.5)
    2. Formula: Clemson SU (Syracuse +22.5)
  2. 11 West Virginia (-3.5) @ Texas Tech – Texas Tech has been unable to stop West Virginia the last two years, as WVU has won by at least 2 scores each year. This year shouldn’t be much different as both teams look to be improved, but West Virginia appears to be a legit contender for the Big 12 title and thus Playoffs. As someone who likes to see different teams in the playoffs, I am cheering for them. Will Grier is too much for TT’s defense to handle.
    1. My Pick: WVU 42 – TT 31 (WVU -3.5)
    2. Formula: WVU SU (WVU -3.5)
  3. Pittsburgh @ 15 UCF (-15.5) – It’s very odd for a Group of 5 team to be favored over a Power 5 team.  Even more odd is to be over a two touchdown favorite.  Pitt has been up and down this year. At times looking like a decent times and other times not so much.  If one can believe it UCF so far looks better than their undefeated team last year.  Pitts defense (particularly) Run defense has been very porous. UCF should have lots of space to run the ball.  If UCF can win going away and Pitt can finish with a solid season (possible), then this is a win that could catapult them into actual playoff relevancy.
    1. My Pick: UCF 45 – Pitt 21 (UCF -15.5)
    2. Formula: UCF SU (UCF -15.5)
  4. 13 Florida @ 21 Mississippi St (-7.5) – Miss St’s old coach is now coaching Florida. So this is an intriguing match-up.  Miss St has been very solid this year.  Both teams lost to Kentucky (only loss).  Florida took advantage of 6 Tennessee turnovers last week as they demolished them.  Overall this is a pretty even match-up.  Both teams will try to establish the run. Being at Miss St, home of the cow-bells, I think will be the edge needed.
    1. My Pick: Miss St 21 – Florida 17 (UF +7.5)
    2. Formula: UF SU (UF +7.5)
  5. 2 Ohio St (-3.5) @ 3 Penn St – The last 2 years these teams have had epic battles. Ohio St winning by 1 a year ago and Penn St knocking off Ohio St by 3 2 years ago.  This year looks to be a lot of the same. Both teams have explosive offenses and good defenses.  I expect the offenses to take over in this game. Although not quite as much as last year.  Going to Happy Valley is never an easy trip. Obviously the winner here inserts themselves as the Big Ten front-runner and one of the favorites for a playoff spot.
    1. My Pick: Penn St 35 – Ohio St 31 (Penn St +3.5)
    2. Formula: Ohio St SU (Penn St +3.5)
  6. 8 Stanford @ 12 Notre Dame (-4.5) – Stanford has gotten the best of Notre Dame the previous three years and 8 of the last 10. Coach Shaw is 5-2 against Brian Kelly. I expect this to be another close game. Both teams have good defenses and average offenses. Neither team has been especially outstanding this year and have some flaws.
    1. My Pick: Stanford 24 – Notre Dame 21 (Stan +4.5)
    2. Formula: Stanford SU (Stan +4.5)
  7. BYU @ 17 Washington (-17.5) – Washington’s defense has been shutting down opponents as their offense has struggled to get going.  BYU has had some solid defensive performances.  Very similar teams, just Washington is better.  Low scoring defensive score here.
    1. My Pick: Wash 21 – BYU 14 (BYU +17.5)
    2. Formula: Wash SU (BYU +17.5)
  8. Oregon (-3) @ California – Oregon won going away last year, California won the year before at home. These 2 teams are polar opposites.  Oregon’s offense has been good, but defensively not very.  Cal has had a good defense so far, but has been unable to move the ball.  Really how this game is dictated will determine the winner. If Oregon is able to dictate the pace and run the score up, then its likely they will pull out a win. If Cal is reasonably able to hold the pace down and get some stops, then they will likely pull out the win.
    1. My Pick: Oregon 31 – Cal 24 (Oregon -3)
    2. Formula: Oregon SU (Oregon -3)

 

The Rest:

  1. UNC @ 25 Miami (-18.5)
    1. My Pick: Miami SU (Miami -18.5)
    2. Formula: Miami SU (UNC +18.5)
  2. Memphis (-14) @ Tulane
    1. My Pick: Mem SU (Mem -14)
    2. Formula: Mem SU (PUSH)
  3. UCLA @ Colorado (CU -10)
    1. My Pick: Colorado SU (CU -10)
    2. Formula: Colorado SU (CU -10)
  4. Louisiana @ 1 Bama (-49)
    1. My Pick: Bama SU (Bama -49)
    2. Formula: Bama SU (Bama -49)
  5. Central Michigan @ Michigan St (-28.5)
    1. My Pick: MSU SU (CMU +28.5)
    2. Formula: MSU SU (CMU +28.5)
  6. Arkansas @ 23 TAMU (-20.5)
    1. My Pick: TAMU SU (TAMU -20.5)
    2. Formula: TAMU SU (Ark +20.5)
  7. Indiana (-17.5) @ Rutgers
    1. My Pick: Ind SU (Indiana -17.5)
    2. Formula: Ind SU (Indiana -17.5)
  8. Army @ Buffalo (-9)
    1. My Pick: Buff SU (Army +9)
    2. Formula: Buff SU (Army +9)
  9. Oklahoma St (-18) @ Kansas
    1. My Pick: Ok St SU (Kansas +18)
    2. Formula: Ok St SU (Kansas +18)
  10. Temple @ BC (-13.5)
    1. My Pick: BC SU (BC -13.5)
    2. Formula: BC SU (Temp +13.5)
  11. Bowling Green @ Georgia Tech (-28.5)
    1. My Pick: GT SU (GT -28.5)
    2. Formula: GT SU (BGU +28.5)
  12. Virginia @ 22 NC State (-6)
    1. My Pick: NCSU SU (UVA +6)
    2. Formula: NCSU SU (PUSH)
  13. UMASS @ Ohio (-13)
    1. My Pick: Ohio SU (UMASS +13)
    2. Formula: Ohio SU (UMASS +13)
  14. La-Monroe (-8) @ Georgia St
    1. My Pick: ULM SU (ULM -8)
    2. Formula: ULM SU (ULM -8)
  15. Kent St @ Ball St (-7.5)
    1. My Pick: BSU SU (BSU -7.5)
    2. Formula: BSU SU (KSU +7.5)
  16. Tennessee @ 4 Georgia (-31.5)
    1. My Pick: Georgia SU (Tenn +31.5)
    2. Formula: Georgia SU (Tenn +31.5)
  17. Baylor @ 7 Oklahoma (-23.5)
    1. My Pick: OU SU (OU -23.5)
    2. Formula: OU SU (Bay +23.5)
  18. 16 Texas (-8.5) @ Kansas St
    1. My Pick: Tex SU (KSU +8.5)
    2. Formula: Tex SU (Tex -8.5)
  19. Cincinnati (-17) @ UCONN
    1. My Pick: Cinci SU (Cinci -17)
    2. Formula: Cinci SU (Cinci -17)
  20. Old Dominion @ East Carolina (-5)
    1. My Pick: ECU SU ( ECU -7)
    2. Formula: ECU SU (ECU -7)
  21. Coastal Carolina @ Troy (-14)
    1. My Pick: Troy SU (Troy -14)
    2. Formula: Troy SU (CC +14)
  22. Western Michigan @ Miami (oh) (-1.5)
    1. My Pick: WMU SU (WMU +1.5)
    2. Formula: EVEN (WMU +1.5)
  23. USA @ Appalachian St (-26)
    1. My Pick: App St SU (USA +26)
    2. Formula: App St SU (USA +26)
  24. Rice @ Wake Forest (-25.5)
    1. My Pick: Wake SU (Rice +25.5)
    2. Formula: Wake SU (Rice +25.5)
  25. Purdue (-3) @ Nebraska
    1. My Pick: Neb SU (Neb +3)
    2. Formula: Pur SU (Purdue -3)
  26. FSU (-6) @ Louisville
    1. My Pick: FSU SU (FSU -6)
    2. Formula: FSU (FSU-6)
  27. Southern Miss @ 10 Auburn (-28.5)
    1. My Pick: Aub SU (Aub -28.5)
    2. Formula: Aub SU (Aub -28.5)
  28. Nevada @ Air Force (-7)
    1. My Pick: Nevada SU (Nev +7)
    2. Formula: Nevada SU (Nev +7)
  29. 6 Michigan (-14) @ Northwestern
    1. My Pick: Michigan SU (Mich -14)
    2. Formula: Mich SU (Mich -14)
  30. Utah @ Washington St (EVEN)
    1. My Pick: Wash St SU
    2. Formula: Wash St SU
  31. Liberty @ New Mexico (-6.5)
    1. My Pick: NM SU (NM -6.5)
    2. Formula: NM SU (Liberty +6.5)
  32. Arkansas St (-3) @ Georgia Southern
    1. My Pick: GSU SU (GSU +3)
    2. Formula: GSU SU (GSU +3)
  33. Northern Illinois @ Eastern Michigan (-3.5)
    1. My Pick: NIU SU (NIU +3.5)
    2. Formula: NIU SU (NIU +3.5)
  34. Virginia Tech @ 18 Duke (-5)
    1. My Pick: Duke SU (VT +5)
    2. Formula: Duke SU (Duke -5)
  35. UTEP @ UTSA (-10.5)
    1. My Pick: UTSA SU (UTSA -10.5)
    2. Formula: UTSA SU (UTEP +10.5)
  36. FAU (-4) @ MTSU
    1. My Pick: FAU SU (FAU -4)
    2. Formula: FAU SU (FAU -4)
  37. 20 Boise St (-17) @ Wyoming
    1. My Pick: Boise SU (Wyo +17)
    2. Formula: Boise SU (Boise -17)
  38. Hawaii (-13) @ San Jose St
    1. My Pick: Hawaii SU (SJSU +13)
    2. Formula: Hawaii SU (SJSU +13)
  39. Charlotte @ UAB (-17)
    1. My Pick: UAB SU (Char +17)
    2. Formula: UAB SU (Char +17)
  40. Iowa St @ TCU (-10.5)
    1. My Pick: TCU SU (Iowa St +10.5)
    2. Formula: TCU SU (Iowa St +10.5)
  41. South Carolina @ 14 KEntucky (-1.5)
    1. My Pick: SC SU (SC +1.5)
    2. Formula: UK SU (UK -1.5)
  42. La Tech @ North Texas (-7.5)
    1. My Pick: NT SU (NT -7.5)
    2. Formula: NT SU (NT -7.5)
  43. Marshall (-6.5) @ Western Kentucky
    1. My Pick: MU SU (MU -6.5)
    2. Formula: MU SU (MU -6.5)
  44. Ole Miss @ 9 LSU (-12)
    1. My Pick: LSU SU (LSU -12)
    2. Formula: LSU SU (LSU -12)
  45. Oregon St @ Arizona St (-21.5)
    1. My Pick: ASU SU (ASU -21.5)
    2. Formula: ASU SU (OSU +21.5)
  46. USC (-3) @ Arizona
    1. My Pick: USC SU (USC -3)
    2. Formula: USC SU (PUSH)
  47. Toledo @ Fresno St (-7.5)
    1. My Pick: Fresno St SU (Toledo -7.5)
    2. Formula: Fresno St SU (FSU -7.5)

Have a great weekend to all

Filed Under: 2018 Games

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