2019 SEC Preview

West Division

PlaceTeamWin-Share (Conf)Record (Conf)Rating
1Alabama
Crimson Tide
11.0 (7.1)12-0 (8-0)5.38
2LSU Tigers9.4 (6.0)10-2 (7-1)4.82
3TAMU Aggies6.7 (3.6)8-4 (5-3)4.29
4Auburn Tigers7.0 (3.6)8-4 (4-4)4.38
5Miss St Bulldogs7.1 (3.8)7-5 (3-5)4.20
6Ole Miss Rebels5.7 (2.8)5-7 (2-6)3.85
6Arkansas
Razorbacks
5.9 (2.5)6-6 (2-6)3.71

East Division

PlaceTeamWin-Share (Conf)Record (Conf)Rating
1UGA Bulldogs10.3 (6.6)11-1 (7-1)5.00
2Florida Gators7.0 (3.9)8-4 (4-4)4.34
2South Carolina
Gamecocks
6.4 (3.6)7-5 (4-4)4.18
4Tennessee
Volunteers
7.2 (3.5)7-5 (3-5)4.17
4Missouri Tigers6.9 (3.7)7-5 (3-5)4.02
4Kentucky Wildcats6.5 (3.1)7-5 (3-5)3.96
7Vanderbilt
Commodores
4.9 (2.2)4-8 (1-7)3.64

Championship Game

Alabama over Georgia

Notes

Last year Alabama did what Alabama does and ran through it’s schedule. Many spoke on that Alabama team in GOAT terms. Until they got shellacked in the national Championship game by Clemson. Alabama lost a lot of coaches and talent. But they reload like no other team in history. They still have Tua at QB. They have a better coaching staff this year with Sarkisian at OC (upgrade over Enos/Locksley). We do expect this Alabama team to be what people thought last years team was. National Champs. Georgia is probably the 2nd or 3rd best team in the nation, but will be hard pressed to run through their schedule unscathed and unlikely to beat Alabama in Champ game. Thus with 2 losses would be on the outside looking in.

Do expect Tennessee to be on the mend and make a bowl as well as 11 other SEC schools (all except Vanderbilt and Ole Miss). LSU could end up being the 4th or 5th best team in the nation. It is a very stacked year for the SEC.

Alabama the #1 seed in the playoffs. LSU and Georgia top 10 teams. UF, TAMU, and Auburn top 25 teams.

Bowl Projections

TeamBowl Projections
AlabamaPeach Bowl (CFP Semifinal)
GeorgiaSugar Bowl (NY6)
LSUOrange Bowl (NY6)
FloridaCitrus Bowl
AuburnBelk Bowl
Texas A&MLiberty Bowl
Miss StateMusic City Bowl
South CarolinaOutback Bowl
TennesseeTax Slayer Bowl
MissouriTexas Bowl
KentuckyWalk-On’s Independence Bowl
ArkansasBirmingham Bowl

SEC coach Rankings

  1. Nick Saban – Alabama
  2. Dan Mullen – Florida
  3. Jimbo Fisher – Texas AM
  4. Kirby Smart – Georgia
  5. Gus Malzahn – Auburn
  6. Ed Orgeron – LSU
  7. Mark Stoops – Kentucky
  8. Barry Odom – Missouri
  9. Will Muschamp – Florida
  10. Matt Luke – Ole Miss
  11. Derek Mason – Vanderbilt
  12. Chad Morris – Arkansas

Unranked:

Joe Moorhead – Mississippi St

Jeremy Pruitt – Tennessee

Simplified Football New Years Day Bowl Predictions

We have posted the Top 25 Rankings, and each conference prediction.  Here is the College Football Playoff and New Years 6 bowl projections:

Playoffs:

Orange Bowl – #1 Clemson v #4 Washington

Cotton Bowl – #2 Alabama v #3 Penn State

 

New Years Day Bowls:

Rose Bowl – #8 Ohio St v #9 Stanford

Peach Bowl – #11 UCF v # 12 FSU

Fiesta Bowl – #7 Auburn v #10 Wisconsin

Sugar Bowl – #5 Oklahoma v #6 Georgia

 

National Champ (Bay Area, CA) – Clemson v Alabama

National Champ = Clemson

2018 SEC Preview

In 2017 SEC was the first conference to get two teams into the College Football Playoff.  Courtesy of Alabama they are the first conference to win it twice as well (both Alabama).  Alabama continues to be the albatross of the SEC.  However some of the other schools have turned the corner and are trying to catch them.  Rivals Auburn looks to have another very good team, fresh off of their win against Alabama last year.  Also Georgia under Nick Saban disciple Kirby Smart has gathered a LOT of talent and was able to win the SEC last year. They lost a lot, but return a lot of talent. A few new coaches (or new schools) look to turn around big programs (that have talent) in Florida (Mullen), Tennessee (Pruitt), and Texas A&M (Fisher).  SEC has the teams at the top to be able to get two into the playoffs again, but they will have to win some big games on the way.

For each Conference we will have the Simplified Football predictions (record) with the Projected Win-Shares and rating of each team next to it.

SEC Predictions:

West

Team – Record (Conf)  /  Win-Shares (Conf)  /  Rating

  1. Alabama – 11-1 (7-1)  /  9.77 (5.97)  /  5.13
  2. Auburn – 10-2 (6-2)  /  8.66 (5.11)  /  4.84
  3. LSU – 8-4 (4-4)  /  7.65 (4.08)  /  4.54
  4. TAMU – 7-5 (4-4)  /  5.97 (3.07)  /  3.97
  5. Miss State – 7-5 (3-5)  /  7.18 (3.82)  /  4.39
  6. Ole Miss – 7-5 (3-5)  /  6.85 (3.45)  /  4.11
  7. Arkansas – 5-7 (2-6)  /  6.43 (3.08)  /  4.10

 

East

Team – Record (Conf)  /  Win-Shares (Conf)  /  Rating

  1. Georgia – 11-1 (7-1)  /  9.42 (5.57)  /  4.96
  2. Missouri – 9-3 (5-3)  /  7.41 (4.11)  /  4.48
  3. Florida – 8-4 (5-3)  /  7.80 (4.60)  /  4.52
  4. South Carolina – 7-5 (4-4)  /  6.56 (3.66)  /  4.12
  5. Tennessee– 6-6 (3-5)  /  7.48 (3.98)  /  4.42
  6. Kentucky – 5-7 (2-6)  /  5.90 (2.95)  /  3.98
  7. Vanderbilt – 4-8 (1-7)  /  5.20 (2.50)  /  3.74

 

Alabama v Georgia in the SEC championship game.  With Alabama winning and going to it’s 4th straight Playoff. That is 11 Bowl Eligible teams. Georgia and Auburn as top 10 teams. With Missouri in the top 15.  Florida and LSU contenders for top 25 honors.

2017 SEC Preview

The SEC had a relatively down year in 2016. However they still were able to get a team into the Championship game for the 2nd year in a row. We expect the SEC to bounce back some this year as there is a lot of depth. Alabama despite many thinking they will take a step back, should remain as good as they were the last 2 years. They recruit at an unprecedented pace, and are easily able to reload. Auburn should take a step forward with a legit QB to go with their outstanding recruiting elsewhere. It will be interesting to see what Georgia does in its 2nd year under Kirby Smart as well as Florida and Tennessee in the East. If those 2 teams can take a step forward this year and create some balance in the SEC then it should once again reign supreme as the best conference.

 

For each Conference we will have the Simplified Football predictions (record) with the Projected Win-Shares and rating of each team next to it. We will also have Bowl Projections for each conference.

 

SEC Predictions:

West

Team – Record (Conf)  /  Win-Shares (Conf)  /  Rating

  1. Alabama – 11-1 (7-1)  /  9.97 (6.43)  /  5.25
  2. Auburn – 9-3 (6-2)  /  8.64 (5.22)  /  4.91
  3. Ole Miss – 8-4 (4-4)  /  7.64 (4.02)  /  4.40
  4. LSU – 8-4 (4-4)  /  7.98 (4.38)  /  4.73
  5. Arkansas – 7-5 (3-5)  /  6.81 (3.24)  /  4.25
  6. Texas A&M – 7-5 (3-5)  /  6.95 (3.55)  /  4.26
  7. Miss State – 5-7 (2-6)  /  5.54 (2.39)  /  3.89

 

East

Team – Record (Conf)  /  Win-Shares (Conf)  /  Rating

  1. Georgia – 9-3 (6-2)  /  8.27 (5.09)  /  4.59
  2. Florida – 8-4 (6-2)  /  7.19 (4.35)  /  4.49
  3. Tennessee – 8-4 (4-4)  /  7.75 (4.14)  /  4.36
  4. South Carolina – 6-6 (4-4)  /  6.37 (3.69)  /  4.03
  5. Vanderbilt – 7-5 (3-5)  /  6.96 (3.56)  /  4.28
  6. Missouri – 6-6 (2-6)  /  6.31 (2.89)  /  3.96
  7. Kentucky – 5-7 (2-6)  /  6.06 (3.01)  /  3.94

 

Alabama wins the West outright, despite losing to Auburn to close the regular season. Georgia beats Florida head to head and wins the tie-breaker.

 

Championship game – Alabama puts the whooping on Georgia (Saban stomping his protege) in the Championship game. Giving them their 4th straight SEC championship (something only Florida accomplished in 1993-1996 under Steve Spurrier).

 

 

That makes 12 bowl teams for the SEC:

Sugar Bowl – Alabama (Playoff)

Cotton Bowl – Auburn

Citrus Bowl – Georgia

Texas Bowl – LSU

Belk Bowl – Ole Miss

Outback Bowl – Texas A&M

Music City Bowl – Florida

Liberty Bowl – Tennessee

Camping World Independence Bowl – South Carolina

Birmingham Bowl – Arkansas

Tax Slayer Bowl – Vanderbilt

Quick Lane Bowl – Missouri

SEC 2016 Preview and Predictions

For each of the conference Predictions I will put in both the Predicted Finish according to Win-Shares, as well as my own personal predictions (which are largely very similar).

 

SEC Win-Shares

West

 

Alabama – 9.41 (5.8)

LSU – 8.94 (5.27)

TAMU – 7.35 (4.75)

Auburn – 7.19 (3.74)

Ole Miss – 6.76 (3.61)

Arkansas – 6.19 (2.97)

Mississippi St – 6.14 (2.79)

 

East

 

Georgia 8.01 (4.67)

Tennessee 7.9 (4.31)

Florida 7.13 (4.0)

South Carolina 6.6 (3.24)

Kentucky 6.33 (3.24)

Missouri 6.24 (3.23)

Vanderbilt 6.01 (3.19)

 

Alabama over Georgia in the SEC championship.

 

Essentially the West will come down to Alabama and LSU winner with the East coming down to the Georgia and Tennessee winner. SEC would have an astonishing 14 teams qualify for bowl games. I can pretty much guarantee you that won’t happen. This is a very strong year for the SEC. With Elite teams and a lot of depth (especially with Vanderbilt catching back up the pack). Most notable things is Missouri and South Carolina falling back to where they traditionally have been in the SEC pecking order.

 

Simplified Football Predictions

West

 

Alabama = 11-1 (7-1)

LSU = 10-2 (6-2)

Ole Miss = 8-4 (5-3)

TAMU = 8-4 (4-4)

Auburn = 8-4 (4-4)

Miss St = 7-5 (3-5)

Arkansas = 6-6 (3-5)

 

East

 

Georgia = 9-3 (5-3)

Tennessee = 9-3 (5-3)

Florida = 7-5 (4-4)

USCe = 7-5 (4-4)

Kentucky = 6-6 (3-5)

Missouri = 6-6 (3-5)

Vanderbilt = 4-8 (1-7)

 

Alabama over UGA in the SEC Champ

 

SF has the same SEC Champ game match up and outcome. A few notable differences is Ole Miss performing better than Win-Shares indicate as well as a few slight differences in the standings with teams like Auburn, Miss St, and Arkansas.

 

That is 13 bowl teams for the SEC

 

Peach Bowl – Alabama (Playoff)

Sugar Bowl – LSU

Citrus Bowl – Georiga

Outback Bowl – Tennessee

Liberty Bowl – Ole Miss

Belk Bowl – Auburn

Texas Bowl – TAMU

Music City – UF

Tax Slayer – USCe

Birmingham Bowl – Miss St

Independence – UK

St Pete – Arkansas

Heart of Dallas – Missouri

Week 8 Match Ups

4-2 again last week. On the season 21-15. Think this is a tricky week.

  1. Cal 34 – UCLA 31
  2. Clemson 28- Miami 24
  3. Oklahoma 42 – Texas Tech 28
  4. Ole Miss 38 – Texas A&M 34
  5. USC 35 – Utah 31

Week 7 Match Ups

Last week went 4-2, brings total on season to 17-13.

Had 6 games picked for the week, but wasn’t able to publish picks yesterday, so I will leave off the Stanford over UCLA pick as it’s a day late, and add the FSU v Louisville Game.

  1. Northwestern 17 – Iowa 14
  2. Michigan 24 – Michigan St 17
  3. Alabama 31 – Texas A&M 28
  4. LSU 24 – UF 17
  5. Notre Dame 38 – USC 28
  6. FSU 28 – Louisville 17

Week 6 Top Match-Ups

2 Weeks ago I was 3-3 which brings me to 13-11 on the season.

This weeks games:

  1. Clemson 24 – Georgia Tech 17: In a defensive battle Clemson is able to run the ball against GT and come out on top in this rivalry game.
  2. Michigan 17 – Northwestern 10: In a game that pits 2 of the better defensive teams, both with little offense, expect a very low scoring game. Michigan continues to impress in this game and comes up victorious.
  3. West Virginia 30 – Oklahoma St 28: In what will be the biggest defensive battle in the Big 12 this year, WVU is able to a tenacious OK St pass rush to win.
  4. Florida 24 – Missouri 17: Florida continues their assent to the top of the SEC East and is able to get a little more offense than Missouri in this game.
  5. Florida State 31 – Miami 21: Florida State is able to control the line of scrimmage and keeps the ball on the ground against Miami. The key will be turnovers. FSU has less turnovers than Miami.
  6. California 28 – Utah 24: Cal upsets Utah on the road, as Utah struggles to stop the Cal passing attack.

Week 2 Top Match-Ups

Last week was a very good start to the season getting all 6 games correct. This week there is only 5 match-ups, and one of them is a stretch to include in this. But there are 3 match-ups including Ranked teams, and 1 match-up of Group of 5 teams that could end up impacting the Playoff race.

 

Notre Dame @ Virginia

  • Notre Dame looked mighty impressive last week dismantling the Texas Longhorns. Virginia looked the opposite against UCLA. I included this game as I think there is a mild chance of an upset here with Virginia likely having a bounce-back game and looking better against Notre Dame than they did against UCLA. However in the end Notre Dame is just much more talented than UVA, and should pull away at the end. I do think Virginia’s defense will have some success against Notre Dame with Folston out for the year.
  • Notre Dame 28 – Virginia 14

Oklahoma @ Tennessee

  • I am a lot more bullish on Tennessee than most, and not sold on Oklahoma. Tennessee is more talented and is playing at home. A win here should solidify them as a top 25 team and people will start to talk about them in SEC East Championship circles. I don’t think this will be quite as high Scoring as many do. I think Tennessee out lasts Oklahoma and blasts Rocky Top all around campus all night long.
  • Tennessee 31 – Oklahoma 24

Oregon @ Michigan State

  • This is the biggest game of the day and the one with the most playoff implications on the line. A loss for either team could see them on the outside looking in, but won’t knock either from contention. Oregon is more talented overall, but Michigan State has quite a bit of talent. Both offenses looked very stellar and this should be a different looking game than last years. The score in this game could potentially get out of hand pretty quickly and perhaps approach 100. Although I think both offenses will be slow to start before gaining traction. Look for a very exciting 2nd half. In the end I think Oregon is just too much for Michigan St.
  • Oregon 42 – Michigan St 38

LSU @ Mississippi State

  • First SEC West match-up of the year. I do not think this one will disappoint. I am very high on LSU this year, and not so much for Mississippi State. However looking at the match-up I think Mississippi State matches up well with LSU and with it being at home (MORE COW BELLS??!!) I think Mississippi St could pull the upset. I think MSU’s front 7 on defense will be able to slow down Fournette and the LSU ground attack, which should severely limit what they do on Offense. In close games I like to go with the better QB. Miss St has the decided advantage in that category.
  • Mississippi St 24 – LSU 21

Boise St  @ BYU

  • Most when they see those 2 names would think you are going to get a lot of offense. However with Boise St having the #1 Defense (S&P) in the nation and BYU without QB Taysom Hill, and with Boise St’s offense looking pretty inept against Washington, I think this is going to be a low scoring affair.  This is a very even match-up with both teams having equal talent (slight advantage to Boise St). Both lines are matched up very evenly. I’m going with Boise St in a nail-biter, luck goes away from the Cougars this time as they fail to convert another Hail Mary (and luck stays with Boise St as they squeak out another win).
  • Boise St 21 – BYU 20