Week 8 Preview

Last week was a good week for me ATS, but a pretty bad one for the Formula.  I continue to inch toward 50% ATS and the Formula has fallen below 50%.  Straight up was another good week, although the worst week yet for both.

 

Straight up (Big-Games):

Me = 33-15 (68.8%)

Formula = 32-16 (66.7%)

 

ATS (Big Games):

Me = 24-21 (53.3%)

Formula = 24-23 (51.1%)

 

Straight up (all-Games):

Me = 257-101 (71.8%)

Formula = 269-89 (75.1%)

 

ATS:

Me = 169-176 (49.0%)

Formula = 169-175 (49.1%)

 

My Picks of the week ATS:

17-13 (56.7%) on the year.

 

Simplified Football Top 15:

  1. Alabama
  2. Clemson
  3. Ohio St
  4. Georgia
  5. Notre Dame
  6. Oklahoma
  7. LSU
  8. Michigan
  9. Penn St
  10. Florida
  11. UCF
  12. Texas
  13. Kentucky
  14. Mississippi St
  15. Washington

 

Playoff Match-ups as of now (taking into account future opponents):

1-Alabama v Notre Dame

2-Ohio St v Clemson

 

Playoff Front-runners (teams who control their own destiny):

Alabama, Georgia, Ohio St, Clemson, Notre Dame, Oklahoma, Texas, LSU, Michigan, & NC State.

 

Playoff Outsiders (Still can make it but need help):

Florida, UCF, Oregon, Kentucky, USF, Colorado, West Virginia and Cincinnati.

 

Big Games:

  1. 8 Michigan (-7.5) @ Michigan St – Rivalry game here.  They have split the last 2 years with Mich St winning last year and Michigan winning the year before. Typically a close game.  Michigan St is coming off of a strong win against Penn St and is riding high.  Michigan should control this game. Michigan St will need to keep this very low scoring to have a chance. Will need to force Shea Patterson into several turnovers.
    1. My Pick: Mich 24 – MSU 14 (Mich -7.5)
    2. Formula: Mich SU (Mich -7.5)
  2. 6 Oklahoma (-8) @ TCU – Oklahoma has beaten TCU the last 2 years. TCU has had trouble slowing down the Oklahoma offense (who doesn’t).  TCU’s offense this year has been pretty bad. If they can’t find a way to slow down Oklahoma then it will be a long day for TCU.
    1. My Pick: OU 42 – TCU 28 (OU -8)
    2. Formula: OU SU (OU -8)
  3. 17 North Carolina St @ 2 Clemson (-17.5) – Clemson has narrowly escaped NC St Upset bids the last 2 years.  I don’t think Clemson will struggle as much this year, but I don’t see them covering. NC State will need to have a prolific day throwing the ball (which is Clemson’s one weakness their pass defense). But Clemson’s offense under Freshman Trevor Lawrence and the pressure from the Clemson defensive front will end up being too much for NC St.
    1. My Pick: Clemson 35 – NC ST 24 (NCSU +17.5)
    2. Formula: Clem SU (Clem -17.5)
  4. 14 Mississippi St @ 7 LSU (-7) – Miss St easily handled LSU last year. But the last time they were in Death Valley LSU squeaked out a win.  I think this game will be closer to the last meeting in Death Valley. I think Miss St may be the better team, but being at home see’s LSU sneak away with a hard fought win.
    1. My Pick: LSU 21 – MSU 17 (MSU +7)
    2. Formula: LSU SU (PUSH)
  5. 18 Oregon at Washington St (-2.5) – Washington St has won the last 3 match-ups against Oregon, including the last time in Wash St.  This is the first time Gameday will be at Washington St, so there should be a very rowdy and enthusiastic crowd. The last 2 games between the 2 have not even been very close.  I’m not sold on Oregon yet. They have some holes, but Herbert is very good. Both offenses control this game.
    1. My Pick: WSU 35 – Oregon 31 (WSU -2.5)
    2. Formula: Oregon SU (Oreg +2.5)
  6. North Texas at UAB (-1.5) – This is the biggest Group of 5 game. Both teams have 1 loss and have outside chances at making a NY6 bowl (not very likely). North Texas got the upper hand last year beating UAB by a FG in Texas.  UAB has been playing very good the last few weeks and is gaining momentum.  I think they are one of the better Group of 5 teams at the moment. Should be a very close game.
    1. My Pick: UAB 35 – NT 33 (UAB -1.5)
    2. Formula: NT SU (NT +1.5)

 

The Rest:

  1. Georgia St @ Arkansas St (-14.5)
    1. My Pick: Ark St SU (GSU +14.5)
    2. Formula: ASU SU (GSU +14.5)
  2. Stanford (-2.5) @ Arizona St
    1. My Pick: Stan SU (Stan -2.5)
    2. Formula: Stan SU (Stan -2.5)
  3. Colorado St @ Boise St (-23.5)
    1. My Pick: BSU SU (BSU -23.5)
    2. Formula: BSU SU (CSU +23.5)
  4. Air Force (-11) @ UNLV
    1. My Pick: AFA SU (UNLV +11)
    2. Formula: AFA SU (UNLV +11)
  5. Northwestern (-20.5) @ Rutgers
    1. My Pick: NW SU (NW -20.5)
    2. Formula: NW SU (Rut +20.5)
  6. Cincinnati @ Temple (-3.5)
    1. My Pick: Temp SU (Temp -3.5)
    2. Formula: Cinci SU (Cinci +3.5)
  7. Maryland @ Iowa (-9)
    1. My Pick: Iowa SU (Iowa -9)
    2. Formula: Iowa SU (MD +9)
  8. Illinois @ Wisconsin (-25)
    1. My Pick: Wis SU (Wisc -25)
    2. Formula: Wis SU (Ill +25)
  9. Buffalo (-1) @ Toledo
    1. My Pick: Tol SU (Tol +1)
    2. Formula: Buff SU (Buff -1)
  10. Tulsa @ Arkansas (-7.5)
    1. My Pick: Ark SU (Ark -7.5)
    2. Formula: Ark SU (Tul +7.5)
  11. Auburn (-3.5) @ Ole Miss
    1. My Pick: Ole Miss SU (Ole Miss +3.5)
    2. Formula: Aub SU (Aub -3.5)
  12. Miami (oh) @ Army (-7.5)
    1. My Pick: Army SU (Army -7.5)
    2. Formula: Army SU (Moh +7.5)
  13. UNC @ Syracuse (-8.5)
    1. My Pick: Cuse SU (Cuse -8.5)
    2. Formula: Cuse SU (Cuse -8.5)
  14. Virginia @ Duke (-7.5)
    1. My Pick: Duke SU (UVA +7.5)
    2. Formula: Duke SU (UVA +7.5)
  15. Bowling Green @ Ohio (-16.5)
    1. My Pick: Ohio SU (Ohio -16.5)
    2. Formula: Ohio SU (BGU +16.5)
  16. Utah St (-15) @ Wyoming
    1. My Pick: USU SU (Wyoming +15)
    2. Formula: USU SU (USU -15)
  17. FAU (-2.5) @ Marshall
    1. My Pick: Marshall SU (Mar +2.5)
    2. Formula: FAU SU (Mar +2.5)
  18. Eastern Michigan (-3) @ Ball St
    1. My Pick: BSU SU (BSU +3)
    2. Formula: BSU SU (BSU +3)
  19. Western Michigan (-4) @ Central Michigan
    1. My Pick: WMU SU (WMU -4)
    2. Formula: WMU SU (CMU +4)
  20. Charlotte @ Middle Tennessee ST (-17)
    1. My Pick: MTSU SU (Char +17)
    2. Formula: MTSU SU (Char +17)
  21. Wake Forest @ FSU (-10.5)
    1. My Pick: FSU SU (FSU -10.5)
    2. Formula: FSU SU (FSU -10.5)
  22. Minnesota @ Nebraska (-3.5)
    1. My Pick: Neb SU (Neb -3.5)
    2. Formula: Minn SU (Minn +3.5)
  23. 9 Penn St (-15.5) @ Indiana
    1. My Pick: PSU SU (PSU -15.5)
    2. Formula: PSU SU (FSU -15.5)
  24. UTEP @ Louisiana Tech (-23.5)
    1. My Pick: LT SU (LT -23.5)
    2. Formula: LT SU (UTEP +23.5)
  25. Akron (-5) @ Kent St
    1. My Pick: Akron SU (Akron -5)
    2. Formula: Akron SU (Akron -5)
  26. 24 Colorado @ 15 Washington (-15.5)
    1. My Pick: Wash SU (Col +15.5)
    2. Formula: Wash SU (Col +15.5)
  27. 1 Alabama (-28.5) @ Tennessee
    1. My Pick: Bama SU (Tenn +28.5)
    2. Formula: Bama SU (Tenn +28.5)
  28. Kansas @ Texas TEch (-18.5)
    1. My Pick: TT SU (Kan +18.5)
    2. Formula: TT SU (Kan +18.5)
  29. Houston (-11.5) @ Navy
    1. My Pick: Hou SU (Navy +11.5)
    2. Formula: Hou SU (Hou -11.5)
  30. SMU @ Tulane (-7)
    1. My Pick: SMU SU (SMU +7)
    2. Formula: SMU SU (SMU +7)
  31. Louisiana @ Appalachian St (-25.5)
    1. My Pick: App SU (App -25.5)
    2. Formula: App SU (ULL +25.5)
  32. Coastal Carolina @ Umass (-3)
    1. My Pick: CC SU (CC +3)
    2. Formula: CC SU (CC +3)
  33. Memphis @ Missouri (-10)
    1. My Pick: Mizzou SU (Mem +10)
    2. Formula: Mizzou SU (PUSH)
  34. California (-7.5) @ Oregon St
    1. My Pick: Cal SU (Cal -7.5)
    2. Formula: Cal SU (Cal -7.5)
  35. Georgia Southern (-12) @ New Mexico St
    1. My Pick: GSU SU (GSU -12)
    2. Formula: GSU SU (GSU -12)
  36. UCF (-21) @ ECU
    1. My Pick: UCF SU (UCF -21)
    2. Formula: UCF SU (UCF -21)
  37. Texas St @ La-Monroe (-10.5)
    1. My Pick: ULM SU (TSU +10.5)
    2. Formula: ULM SU (TSU +10.5)
  38. UTSA @ Southern Miss (-17.5)
    1. My Pick: USM SU (UTSA +17.5)
    2. Formula: USM SU (UTSA +17.5)
  39. UCONN @ USF (-34)
    1. My Pick: USF SU (UCONN +34)
    2. Formula: USF SU (UCONN +34)
  40. 3 Ohio St (-13.5) @ Purdue
    1. My Pick: OSU SU (OSU -13.5)
    2. Formula: OSU SU (OSU -13.5)
  41. Vanderbilt @ 13 Kentucky (-11.5)
    1. My Pick: UK SU (Vandy +11.5)
    2. Formula: UK SU (Vandy +11.5)
  42. Fresno St (-13) @ New Mexico
    1. My Pick: FSU SU (FSU -13)
    2. Formula: FSU SU (FSU 13)
  43. Old Dominion @ Western Kentucky (-4.5)
    1. My Pick: WKU SU (WKU -4.5)
    2. Formula: ODU SU (ODU +4.5)
  44. Rice @ FIU (-23.5)
    1. My Pick: FIU SU (FIU -23.5)
    2. Formula: FIU SU (Rice +23.5)
  45. 25 Southern Cal @ Utah (-7)
    1. My Pick: Utah SU (USC +7)
    2. Formula: USC SU (USC +7)
  46. Arizona @ UCLA (-8)
    1. My Pick: UCLA SU (UCLA -8)
    2. Formula: UCLA SU (AZ +8)
  47. San Jose St @ San Diego St (-28)
    1. My Pick: SDSU SU (SJSU +28)
    2. Formula: SDSU SU (SJSU +28)
  48. Nevada @ Hawaii (-3)
    1. My Pick: Haw SU (Haw -3)
    2. Formula: Haw SU (Nev +3)

Have a great weekend!

Week 7 Preview

Going to be partial for now (10/8) so I can get the Arkansas St v App St game on record.

Last week was a good week for me ATS.  Also a good week for the System. Both of us were above 55%. I continue to inch toward 50% ATS and the Formula continues to stay above 50%.  Straight up was another good week, although the worst week yet for both.

 

Straight up (Big-Games):

Me = 29-12 (70.7%)

Formula = 29-12 (70.7%)

 

ATS (Big Games):

Me = 21-17 (55.3%)

Formula = 22-18 (55.0%)

 

Straight up (all-Games):

Me = 219-86 (71.8%)

Formula = 229-76 (75.1%)

 

ATS:

Me = 142-151 (48.5%)

Formula = 154-137 (52.9%)

 

My Picks of the week ATS:

13-10 (56.5%) on the year.

 

Simplified Football Top 15:

  1. Alabama
  2. Georgia
  3. Ohio St
  4. Clemson
  5. Penn St
  6. Notre Dame
  7. Michigan
  8. Oklahoma
  9. West Virginia
  10. UCF
  11. Florida
  12. LSU
  13. Auburn
  14. Washington
  15. Texas

 

Playoff Match-ups as of now (taking into account future opponents):

1-Alabama/UGA winner v Clemson

2-Ohio St v Notre Dame

 

Playoff Front-runners (teams who control their own destiny):

Alabama, Georgia, Ohio St, Clemson, Notre Dame, West Virginia, Colorado, Wisconsin, Miami, & NC State.

 

Playoff Outsiders (Still can make it but need help):

Penn St, Michigan, Florida, UCF, Washington, Texas, LSU, Oregon, Oklahoma, Kentucky, USF, and Cincinnati.

 

Big Games:

  1. 17 Miami (-6) @ Virginia – Virginia is statistically the best offense that Miami has faced this year.  Odd to say as they certainly are not known for offense (nor is coach Mendenhall), but so far their Offense has been better than their defense.  Both units are just above average. Not a great team, but one that could beat Miami at home after a big emotional win/struggle against a rival (Miami v FSU).  Could very easily be a trap game for Miami.  I think it will be closer than many expect, but Miami pulls it out with a big turnover at some point. Miami has won the last 2 easily.
    1. My Pick: Miami 28 – Virginia 24 (UVA +6)
    2. Formula: Miami SU (Mia -6)
    3. Over 47
  2. Baylor @ 15 Texas (-14.5) – Texas is in a position like Miami. Big win over a rival and go against an opponent that is good enough to beat them, but not great. Traditional Trap game.  Texas however gets an added advantage that the game is at home. Both offense should do well in this game.  Should be a traditional Big 12 shootout.  Texas won big last year and squeaked by the year before by 1 point. Texas’ superior defense wins this game for them.
    1. My Pick: Texas 38 Baylor 28 (Bay +14.5)
    2. Formula: Texas SU (Bay +14.5)
    3. Over 60
  3. 19 Wisconsin @ 7 Michigan (-7.5) – Wisconsin has started to play better the last few weeks, but still not playing near the level many expected, mostly because their defense has not been good.  Michigan looks to be a legit contender now that Shea Patterson is settling in.  However they have yet to play anyone since the first game (a loss) that can really challenge them.  Michigan statistically should win this relatively easily, but I think Wisconsin will be able to run the ball against Michigan’s strong front 7. The last 2 years have been defensive slugfests.  Wisconsin winning last year and Michigan winning the year before.  I think this year will be higher scoring, but still low scoring.
    1. My Pick: Michigan 24 – Wisconsin 17 (Wisconsin +7.5)
    2. Formula: Michigan SU (Michigan -7.5)
    3. Under 49
  4. 14 Washington (-3) @ 22 Oregon – Washington has won the previous 2 meetings by 35+.  Oregon is improved and Washington is not playing as well as they have in the past, however last week looked like they may have gotten the ball rolling offensively.  Oregon QB Herbert will keep them in this game against a strong Washington defense, but in the end Washington is just a better team and better coached, even in a rough environment like Autzen field.
    1. My Pick: Wash 31 – Oregon 24 (Wash -3)
    2. Formula: Wash SU (Wash -3)
    3. Under 57
  5. 18 Colorado @ USC (-7.5) – Colorado even in their banner year of 2016 was not able to beat USC, they have played them close but not been able to beat them.  This is probably USC’s worst team in the last few years as they are largely mediocre across the board. Colorado has been good in pass defense and throwing the ball. It’s a pretty even matchup and if Colorado can push the scores into the 30’s they will likely win.  However the superior talent of USC will limit what Colorado wants to do.
    1. My Pick: USC 27 – Colorado 24 (Col +7.5)
    2. Formula: Colorado SU (Col +7.5)
    3. Under 57
  6. 2 Georgia (-7.5) @ 12 LSU – These 2 conference foes have not played the last few years. Both come in with Playoff aspirations. Georgia can stay alive with a loss, but LSU is finished if they lose.  LSU’s defense should keep them in the game, this is the best defense (by a LARGE margin) that Georgia’s offense has faced. So it will be interesting to see how they respond.  Georgia did get lucky with the scheduling and playing the game at 3:30 instead of a night game in Death Valley.  Still will be a raucous crowd.  LSU’s offense will find it tough sledding against Georgia’s defense and that will be the difference.
    1. My Pick: Georgia 24 LSU 21 (LSU +7.5)
    2. Formula: Georgia SU (UGA -7.5)
    3. Under 50
  7. 10 UCF (-4.5) @ Memphis – In the AAC champ game last year these 2 teams played one of the most entertaining games of 2017. UCF won in OT.  In the regular season UCF was able to stop Memphis offensively and win going away.  I can see this game going either way.  Will be UCF’s toughest game yet (maybe toughest all-season).  If they can get by this game, then they could find themselves at 11-0 and facing Memphis again in the AAC champ game (with a potential Playoff spot on the line).
    1. My Pick: UCF 45 – Memphis 38 (UCF -4.5)
    2. Formula: UCF SU (UCF -4.5)
    3. Over 81

 

The Rest:

  1. Appalachian St (-10.5) @ Arkansas St (10/8)
    1. My Pick: App St SU (Ark St +10.5)
    2. Formula: App St SU (App St -10.5)
  2. Texas Tech (-7.5) @ TCU
    1. My Pick: TT SU (TT +7.5)
    2. Formula: TT SU (TT +7.5)
  3. Georgia Southern (-17) @ Texas St
    1. My Pick: GSU SU (GSU -17)
    2. Formula: GSU SU (GSU -17)
  4. South Florida (-7.5) @ Tulsa
    1. My Pick: USF SU (Tulsa +7.5)
    2. Formula: USF SU (USF -7.5)
  5. Air Force @ San Diego St (-10)
    1. My Pick: SDSU SU (SDSU -10)
    2. Formula: SDSU SU (SDSU -10)
  6. Arizona @ Utah (-14)
    1. My Pick: Utah SU (AZ +14)
    2. Formula: Utah SU (AZ +14)
  7. Rutgers @ Maryland (-25)
    1. My Pick: MD SU (MD -25)
    2. Formula: MD SU (Rut +25)
  8. Oklahoma St (-7) @ Kansas St
    1. My Pick: KSU SU (KSU +7)
    2. Formula: OSU SU (OSU -7)
  9. Iowa (-5) @ Indiana
    1. My Pick: Indiana SU (Ind +5)
    2. Formula: Iowa SU (Iowa -5)
  10. Nebraska @ Northwestern (-4)
    1. My Pick: Neb SU (Neb +4)
    2. Formula: NW SU (NW -4)
  11. Minnesota @ 3 Ohio St (-29.5)
    1. My Pick: OSU SU (Minn +29.5)
    2. Formula: OSU SU (Minn +29.5)
  12. Toledo (-1.5) @ Eastern Michigan
    1. My Pick: EMU SU (EMU +1.5)
    2. Formula: EMU SU (EMU +1.5)
  13. 11 Florida (-7.5) @ Vanderbilt
    1. My Pick: UF SU (UF -7.5)
    2. Formula: UF SU (UF -7.5)
  14. Tennessee @ 13 Auburn (-15)
    1. My Pick: Aub SU (Tenn +15)
    2. Formula: Aub SU (Tenn +15)
  15. Akron @ Buffalo (-11)
    1. My Pick: Buff SU (Akron +11)
    2. Formula: Buff SU (Akron +11)
  16. Duke @ Georgia Tech (-2.5)
    1. My Pick: Duke SU (Duke +2.5)
    2. Formula: GT SU (Duke +2.5)
  17. Louisville @ Boston College (-13.5)
    1. My Pick: BC SU (BC -13.5)
    2. Formula: BC SU (Lou +13.5)
  18. UAB (-16.5) @ Rice
    1. My Pick: UAB SU (UAB -16.5)
    2. Formula: UAB SU (Rice +16.5)
  19. Southern Miss @ North Texas (-8.5)
    1. My Pick: USM SU (USM +8.5)
    2. Formula: NT SU (USM +8.5)
  20. Troy (-9) @ Liberty
    1. My Pick: Troy SU (Troy -9)
    2. Formula: Troy SU (Lib +9)
  21. Kent St @ Miami (oh) (-11)
    1. My Pick: UM SU (UM -11)
    2. Formula: UM SU (UM -11)
  22. Pittsburgh @ Notre Dame (-21)
    1. My Pick: ND SU (Pitt +21)
    2. Formula: ND SU (ND -21)
  23. Western Michigan (-14.5) @ Bowling Green
    1. My Pick: WMU SU (WMU -14.5)
    2. Formula: WMU SU (WMU -14.5)
  24. Ball St @ Central Mich (-2)
    1. My Pick: CMU SU (CMU -2)
    2. Formula: BSU SU (BSU +2)
  25. Purdue (-10.5) @ Illinois
    1. My Pick: Purd SU (Pur -10.5)
    2. Formula: Pur SU (Illini +10.5)
  26. Michigan St @ 5 Penn St (-13.5)
    1. My Pick: PSU PU (PSU -13.5)
    2. Formula: PSU PU (PSU -13.5)
  27. Ohio @ NIU (-4)
    1. My Pick: NIU SU (NIU -4)
    2. Formula: NIU SU (PUSH)
  28. Army (-14.5) @ San Jose St
    1. My Pick: Army SU (Army -14.5)
    2. Formula: Army SU (SJSU +14.5)
  29. 23 Texas AM (-3.5) @ 25 So Carolina
    1. My Pick: USC SU (USC +3.5)
    2. Formula: TAMU SU (USC +3.5)
  30. Temple (-7.5) @ Navy
    1. My Pick: Temple SU (Navy +7.5)
    2. Formula: Temple SU (Temp -7.5)
  31. Marshall (-4) @ Old Dominion
    1. My Pick: ODU SU (ODU +4)
    2. Formula: Mar SU (PUSH)
  32. UNLV @ Utah St (-24)
    1. My Pick: USU SU (USU -24)
    2. Formula: USU SU (UNLV +24)
  33. New Mexico (-1) @ Colorado St
    1. My Pick: NM SU (NM -1)
    2. Formula:  NM SU (NM -1)
  34. New Mexico St @ Louisiana (-8)
    1. My Pick: ULL SU (NMSU -8)
    2. Formula: ULL SU (NMSU -8)
  35. ULM @ Coastal Carolina (-4.5)
    1. My Pick: CC SU (CC -4.5)
    2. Formula: CC SU (CC -4.5)
  36. Virginia Tech (-5.5) @ North Carolina
    1. My Pick: VT SU (VT -5.5)
    2. Formula: VT SU (VT -5.5)
  37. 9 West Virginia (-7) @ Iowa St
    1. My Pick: WVU SU (WVU -7)
    2. Formula: WVU SU (WVU -7)
  38. UCLA @ Cal (-7)
    1. My Pick: UCLA SU (UCLA +7)
    2. Formula: Cal SU (UCLA +7)
  39. Missouri @ 1 Alabama (-28.5)
    1. My Pick: Bama SU (Missouri +28.5)
    2. Formula: Bama SU (Missouri +28.5)
  40. Houston (-16) @ East Carolina
    1. My Pick: Hou SU (ECU +16)
    2. Formula: Hou SU (ECU +16)
  41. Louisiana Tech (-13.5) @ UTSA
    1. My Pick: La Tech SU (UTSA +13.5)
    2. Formula: LT SU (UTSA +13.5)
  42. Ole Miss (-6) @ Arkansas
    1. My Pick: Ole Miss SU (Ole Miss -6)
    2. Formula: Ole Miss SU (Ole Miss -6)
  43. Middle Tennessee St @ FIU (-2.5)
    1. My Pick: FIU SU (FIU -2.5)
    2. Formula: FIU SU (MTSU +2.5)
  44. Hawaii @ BYU (-14.5)
    1. My Pick: BYU SU (Hawaii +14.5)
    2. Formula: BYU SU (Hawaii +14.5)
  45. Boise St (-17.5) @ Nevada
    1. My Pick: BSU SU (BSU -17.5)
    2. Formula: BSU SU (BSU -17.5)
  46. Wyoming @ Fresno St (-19.5)
    1. My Pick: FSU SU (FSU -19.5)
    2. Formula: FSU SU (Wyo +19.5)

Have a great weekend all.

Week 6 Preview

I had a good week picking the big games. Not so much the rest of the games.  Formula continues to kick my butt.

 

Straight up (Big-Games):

Me = 24-10 (70.6%)

Formula = 26-8 (76.4%)

 

ATS (Big Games):

Me = 16-15 (51.6%)

Formula = 17-16 (51.5%)

 

Straight up (all-Games):

Me = 184-65 (73.9%)

Formula = 192-58 (76.8%)

 

ATS:

Me = 112-127 (46.9%)

Formula = 125-114 (50.8%)

 

My Picks of the week ATS:

7-9 (43.8%) on the year.

 

Simplified Football Top 15:

  1. Alabama
  2. Georgia
  3. Ohio St
  4. Oklahoma
  5. Clemson
  6. Penn St
  7. LSU
  8. Notre Dame
  9. Michigan
  10. West Virginia
  11. Auburn
  12. Florida
  13. UCF
  14. Kentucky
  15. Washington

 

Playoff Match-ups as of now (taking into account future opponents):

1-Alabama/UGA winner v Clemson

2-Ohio St v Oklahoma

 

Playoff Front-runners (teams who control their own destiny):

Alabama, Georgia, Ohio St, Clemson, Oklahoma, LSU, Notre Dame, West Virginia, Kentucky, Colorado, Oklahoma St, Wisconsin, Miami, & NC State.

 

Playoff Outsiders (Still can make it but need help):

Penn St, Michigan, Auburn, Florida, UCF, Washington, Stanford, Texas, Syracuse, Oregon, Missouri, USF, and Cincinnati.

 

Everyone else is pretty much dead in the water.  OU, Texas, LSU, ND, Kentucky, NC State, Miami, and Florida are all on the docket and can change where they are this weekend.

We are down to 14 undefeated teams left now. Not many ranked match-ups this week, but we do have a few rivalry games and a few games with ranked teams on the road against quality opponents.  One of those make or break type weeks.  I’m actually expecting some carnage.

 

Big Games:

  1. Florida State @ 18 Miami – Florida State has struggled this year so far and Miami has whooped up on lesser opponents, but lost to the one legit team it played (undefeated LSU) pretty big.  Miami won in the closing seconds last year to break FSU’s streak of 7 straight.  This rivalry often has unexpected results and is generally pretty hard to get a gauge on. One odd thing is Miami has no won a home game in this rivalry in over a decade. I expect both DL’s to take advantage of OL, get pressure on the QB and limit the ground game.  Miami will likely get a few big pass plays, but overall be pretty inefficient throwing the ball.  FSU will be more efficient and have some big plays as well there.  This rivalry typically comes down to who makes big plays.  FSU over the last year and a half has not been very good in that category, Miami has been.
    1. My Pick: Miami 24 – FSU 21 (FSU +14)
    2. Formula: Miami SU (FSU +14)
  2. 8 Notre Dame @ Virginia Tech – Virginia Tech won 34-31 two years ago.  VT had an awful loss to Old Dominion and ND has looked better each week.  However VT has looked pretty good outside of the Old Dominion game.  Both defenses are solid and should keep this a lower scoring game. Look for the winning team to be the one that has the most success in the air.
    1. My Pick: ND 27 – VT 20 (ND -5.5)
    2. Formula: ND SU (ND -5.5)
  3. 17 Texas v 4 Oklahoma – The red river shootout (I’m old school). Another rivalry game that has very unexpected results often. Last year OU won 29-24, and won 45-40 two years ago. Texas has looked much improved so far this year and OU has had a scare against Army. They do look more vulnerable this year than last year.  Texas is by far the best defense OU has faced this season.  I still expect it to be somewhat high scoring.  If this game starts getting carried away offensively then that definitely favors OU. UT will want to keep the scoring lower and make it a defensive game.
    1. My Pick: Texas 28 – OU 27 (Tex +7.5)
    2. Formula: OU SU (Tex +7.5)
  4. Maryland v 9 Michigan – Michigan has destroyed Maryland the last 2 years.  Maryland has had extensive injury issues at Quarterback dating back almost half a decade (really quite remarkable). I think this game will be significantly closer than the last two years.  However Michigan seems to have found some offense and looks pretty formidable.  Maryland will look to try and run the ball and stop Michigan’s rushing attack. How successful they are able to do that will determine how good they do in this game.
    1. My Pick: Mich 31-MD 21 (MD +17.5)
    2. Formula: Mich SU (MD +17.5)
  5. Utah at 16 Stanford – Stanford won a nail-biter last year 23-20.  Utah has one of the better defenses in the nation, but also one of the worst offenses.  Stanford has been decent in just about every aspect except run offense (the one aspect they usually excel at). In the end I think Stanford is just a better team and Utah will really struggle to move the ball against Stanford.
    1. My Pick: Stan 24 – Utah 14 (Stan -5)
    2. Formula: Stan SU (Stan -5)
  6. 7 LSU at 13 Florida – Both offenses have really struggled to be consistent. Both defenses have been pretty good.  This should be another SEC defensive slugfest. Both teams will struggle to throw the ball. UF should have better success on the ground (not much), that should be enough for them to pull it out.
    1. My Pick: UF 17 – LSU 14 (UF +2.5)
    2. Formula: LSU SU (UF +2.5)
  7. San Diego St @ Boise St – Overall this is a pretty even match-up except for one category.  Boise St should have no issues throwing it on San Diego St. SDSU Pass defense has been pretty bad and Boise’s pass offense has been pretty efficient.  Should be a big day for Boise St in that regard, even if the rest of the game is pretty close.
    1. My Pick: BSU 34 – SDSU 20 (SDSU +14.5)
    2. Formula: BSU SU (SDSU +14.5)

 

The Rest:

  1. Georgia St @ Troy (-15.5)
    1. My Pick: Troy SU (Troy -15.5)
    2. Formula: Troy SU (GSU +15.5)
  2. Tulsa at Houston (-18)
    1. My Pick: Houston SU (Tul +18)
    2. Formula: Houston SU (Tul +18)
  3. Georgia Tech (-3.5) @ Louisville
    1. My Pick: GT SU (GT -3.5)
    2. Formula: GT SU (GT -3.5)
  4. Middle Tennessee St @ Marshall (-7)
    1. My Pick: Marshall SU (MTSU +7)
    2. Formula: Marshall SU (MTSU +7)
  5. Utah St @ BYU (-2.5)
    1. My Pick: BYU SU (BYU -2.5)
    2. Formula: BYU SU (BYU -2.5)
  6. 1 Alabama (-35) @ Arkansas
    1. My Pick: Bama SU (Bama -35)
    2. Formula: Bama SU (Bama -35)
  7. Kansas @ 10 WVU (-28.5)
    1. My Pick: WVU SU (WVU -28.5)
    2. Formula: WVU SU (Kan +28.5)
  8. Northwestern @ Michigan St (-11.5)
    1. My Pick: MSU SU (NW +11.5)
    2. Formula: MSU SU (NW +11.5)
  9. Tulane at Cincinnati (-7.5)
    1. My Pick: Cinci SU (Cinci -7.5)
    2. Formula: Cinci SU (Cinci -7.5)
  10. Buffalo (-7.5) at Central Mich
    1. My Pick: Buff SU (Buff -7.5)
    2. FOrmula: Buff SU (CMU +7.5)
  11. Eastern Mich @ Western Mich (-3.5)
    1. My Pick: EMU SU (EMU +3.5)
    2. Formula: WMU SU (EMU +3.5)
  12. ECU at Temple (-11.5)
    1. My Pick: Temple SU (ECU +11.5)
    2. Formula: Temple SU (ECU +11.5)
  13. Missouri @ South Carolina (-2)
    1. My Pick: Missouri SU (Mizzou +2)
    2. Formula: So Car SU (Mizzou +2)
  14. Illinois (-4) at Rutgers
    1. My Pick: Illinois SU (Illini -4)
    2. Formula: Illinois SU (Illini -4)
  15. Syracuse (-4.5) at Pittsburgh
    1. My Pick: Cuse SU (Cuse -4.5)
    2. Formula: Cuse SU (Cuse -4.5)
  16. Boston College at 21 North Carolina St (-4.5)
    1. My Pick: BC SU (BC +4.5)
    2. Formula: NCSU SU (NCSU -4.5)
  17. Northern Illinois (-3.5) at Ball St
    1. My Pick: NIU SU (NIU -3.5)
    2. Formula: NIU SU (NIU -3.5)
  18. 5 Clemson (-17) at Wake Forest
    1. My Pick: Clem SU (WF +17)
    2. Formula: Clem SU (Clem -17)
  19. Iowa St at 24 Oklahoma St (-10.5)
    1. My Pick: Ok St SU (Ok St -10.5)
    2. Formula: Ok St SU (ISU +10.5)
  20. Ohio (-12.5) at Kent St
    1. My Pick: Ohio SU (Ohio -12.5)
    2. Formula: Ohio SU (KSU +12.5)
  21. Miami (oh) at Akron (-3.5)
    1. My Pick: Akron SU (Akron -3.5)
    2. Formula: Akron SU (Akron -3.5)
  22. Navy (-3.5) at Air Force
    1. My Pick: Navy SU (Navy -3.5)
    2. Formula: Navy SU (Navy -3.5)
  23. Bowling Green at Toledo (-20.5)
    1. My Pick: Toledo SU (BGU +20.5)
    2. Formula: Toledo SU (BGU +20.5)
  24. South Alabama at Georgia Southern (-14)
    1. My Pick: GSU SU (GSU -14)
    2. Formula: GSU SU (GSU -14)
  25. South Florida (13.5) at UMASS
    1. My Pick: USF SU (USF -13.5)
    2. Formula: USF SU (USF -13.5)
  26. Kansas St at Baylor (-5)
    1. My Pick: KSU SU (KSU +5)
    2. Formula: Baylor SU (KSU +5)
  27. Iowa (-6) at Minnesota
    1. My Pick: Minn SU (Minn +6)
    2. Formula: Iowa SU (Minn +6)
  28. Indiana at 3 Ohio St (-25)
    1. My Pick: OSU SU (Ind +25)
    2. Formula: OSU SU (Ind +25)
  29. Arizona St at Colorado (-2.5)
    1. My Pick: Ariz St SU (ASU +2.5)
    2. Formula: Colorado SU (ASU +2.5)
  30. La-Monroe at Ole Miss (-23)
    1. My Pick: Ole Miss SU (Ole Miss -23)
    2. Formula: Ole Miss SU (ULM +23)
  31. New Mexico at UNLV (-10)
    1. My Pick: UNLV SU (UNLV -10)
    2. Formula: UNLV SU (NM +10)
  32. Old Dominion at FAU (-15)
    1. My Pick: FAU SU (FAU -15)
    2. Formula: FAU SU (ODU +15)
  33. Southern Methodist at 13 Central Florida (-24)
    1. My Pick: UCF SU (SMU +24)
    2. Formula: UCF SU (PUSH)
  34. 14 Kentucky at Texas A&M (-5)
    1. My Pick: TAMU SU (UK +5)
    2. Formula: UK SU (UK +5)
  35. Alabama Birm at Louisiana Tech (-9)
    1. My Pick: LT SU (UAB +9)
    2. Formula: LT SU (UAB +9)
  36. UTSA at Rice (-2.5)
    1. My Pick: UTSA SU (UTSA +2.5)
    2. Formula: UTSA SU (UTSA +2.5)
  37. Louisiana (-3) at Texas St
    1. My Pick: ULL SU (ULL -3)
    2. Formula: ULL SU (ULL -3)
  38. UCONN at Memphis (-35)
    1. My Pick: Mem SU (Mem -35)
    2. Formula: Mem SU (UCONN +35)
  39. Vanderbilt at 2 Georgia (-26.5)
    1. My Pick: UGA SU (UGA -26.5)
    2. Formula: UGA SU (Vandy +26.5)
  40. 11 Auburn (-3) at Mississippi st
    1. My Pick: Aub SU (Aub -3)
    2. Formula: Aub SU (Aub -3)
  41. 15 Washington (-21) at UCLA
    1. My Pick: Wash SU (Wash -21)
    2. Formula: Wash SU (Wash -21)
  42. Nebraska at 25 Wisconsin (-20)
    1. My Pick: Wisc SU (Neb +20)
    2. Formula: Wisc SU (Neb +20)
  43. North Texas (-25.5) at UTEP
    1. My Pick: NT SU (NT -25.5)
    2. Formula: NT SU (NT -25.5)
  44. Liberty (-4) at New Mexico St
    1. My Pick: Lib SU (Lib -4)
    2. Formula: Lib SU (Lib -4)
  45. Washington St (-16) at Oregon St
    1. My Pick: Wash St SU (WSU -16)
    2. Formula: WSU SU (WSU -16)
  46. California (-2) at Arizona
    1. My Pick: Zona SU (Zona +2)
    2. Formula: EVEN (Zona +2)
  47. Colorado St (-3) at San Jose St
    1. My Pick: SJSU SU (SJSU +3)
    2. Formula: SJSU SU (SJSU +3)
  48. Fresno St (-11.5) at Nevada
    1. My Pick: Fresno St SU (FSU -11.5)
    2. Formula: Fresno St SU (FSU -11.5)
  49. Wyoming at Hawaii (-3)
    1. My Pick: Haw SU (Haw -3)
    2. Formula: Wyoming SU (Wyo +3)

Have a great weekend everyone.

Week 5 Preview

Had a pretty equal week compared to the Formula.  Although it’s still up big on me for the year:

Straight up (Big-Games):

Me = 19-7

Formula = 19-7

 

ATS (Big Games):

Me = 11-12

Formula = 11-14

 

Straight up (all-Games):

Me = 141-53 (72.6%)

Formula = 146-50 (74.5%)

 

ATS:

Me = 86-100 (46.2%)

Formula = 98-89 (51.3%)

 

Last week I also started keeping track of my own personal picks ATS:

6-2 (pretty good week there).

 

This week I will also debut the formula’s Top 15:

1-Alabama

2-Ohio St

3-Penn St

4-Georgia

5-Clemson

6-Michigan

7-Oklahoma

8-Stanford

9-LSU

10-Auburn

11-West Virginia

12-Notre Dame

13-Florida

14-Kentucky

15-UCF

 

Playoff Match-ups as of now (taking into account future opponents):

1-Alabama/UGA winner v Oklahoma

2-Penn St/Ohio St winner v Clemson

Pac 12 is the odd conference out.

 

As of right now there are 21 teams that are undefeated.  In addition there are 25 Power 5 teams that have 1 loss. So the playoff field is down to about 46 teams that  can make the playoffs.  Although some of them have a few low chance even if they win out.

This week we have a few ranked match-ups (AP/Coaches/Formula). So it’s a pretty good weekend for football. Should start to put the playoff picture into focus.

 

Big Games:

  1. 19 Syracuse @ 5 Clemson (-22.5) – Last year Clemson traveled to Syracuse and received their only loss of the season (not including playoffs). Clemson has made a Quarterback change (with the previous starter transferring) this week.  Starting true Freshman Trevor Lawrence.  Lawrence has been very impressive and has outplayed incumbent starter Kelly Bryant  by a wide margin so far this season.  To most CFB fans it was just a matter of time before Lawrence took over full time.  Personally I think this change will put Clemson into a different stratosphere (IE Alabama and Clemson and everyone else).  Separate them from the pack (joining Alabama).  The formula will likely undervalue Clemson for the next few weeks as it factors in Bryant starting the first 4 games.
    1. My Pick: Clemson 38 – Syracuse 21 (Clemson -22.5)
    2. Formula: Clemson SU (Syracuse +22.5)
  2. 11 West Virginia (-3.5) @ Texas Tech – Texas Tech has been unable to stop West Virginia the last two years, as WVU has won by at least 2 scores each year. This year shouldn’t be much different as both teams look to be improved, but West Virginia appears to be a legit contender for the Big 12 title and thus Playoffs. As someone who likes to see different teams in the playoffs, I am cheering for them. Will Grier is too much for TT’s defense to handle.
    1. My Pick: WVU 42 – TT 31 (WVU -3.5)
    2. Formula: WVU SU (WVU -3.5)
  3. Pittsburgh @ 15 UCF (-15.5) – It’s very odd for a Group of 5 team to be favored over a Power 5 team.  Even more odd is to be over a two touchdown favorite.  Pitt has been up and down this year. At times looking like a decent times and other times not so much.  If one can believe it UCF so far looks better than their undefeated team last year.  Pitts defense (particularly) Run defense has been very porous. UCF should have lots of space to run the ball.  If UCF can win going away and Pitt can finish with a solid season (possible), then this is a win that could catapult them into actual playoff relevancy.
    1. My Pick: UCF 45 – Pitt 21 (UCF -15.5)
    2. Formula: UCF SU (UCF -15.5)
  4. 13 Florida @ 21 Mississippi St (-7.5) – Miss St’s old coach is now coaching Florida. So this is an intriguing match-up.  Miss St has been very solid this year.  Both teams lost to Kentucky (only loss).  Florida took advantage of 6 Tennessee turnovers last week as they demolished them.  Overall this is a pretty even match-up.  Both teams will try to establish the run. Being at Miss St, home of the cow-bells, I think will be the edge needed.
    1. My Pick: Miss St 21 – Florida 17 (UF +7.5)
    2. Formula: UF SU (UF +7.5)
  5. 2 Ohio St (-3.5) @ 3 Penn St – The last 2 years these teams have had epic battles. Ohio St winning by 1 a year ago and Penn St knocking off Ohio St by 3 2 years ago.  This year looks to be a lot of the same. Both teams have explosive offenses and good defenses.  I expect the offenses to take over in this game. Although not quite as much as last year.  Going to Happy Valley is never an easy trip. Obviously the winner here inserts themselves as the Big Ten front-runner and one of the favorites for a playoff spot.
    1. My Pick: Penn St 35 – Ohio St 31 (Penn St +3.5)
    2. Formula: Ohio St SU (Penn St +3.5)
  6. 8 Stanford @ 12 Notre Dame (-4.5) – Stanford has gotten the best of Notre Dame the previous three years and 8 of the last 10. Coach Shaw is 5-2 against Brian Kelly. I expect this to be another close game. Both teams have good defenses and average offenses. Neither team has been especially outstanding this year and have some flaws.
    1. My Pick: Stanford 24 – Notre Dame 21 (Stan +4.5)
    2. Formula: Stanford SU (Stan +4.5)
  7. BYU @ 17 Washington (-17.5) – Washington’s defense has been shutting down opponents as their offense has struggled to get going.  BYU has had some solid defensive performances.  Very similar teams, just Washington is better.  Low scoring defensive score here.
    1. My Pick: Wash 21 – BYU 14 (BYU +17.5)
    2. Formula: Wash SU (BYU +17.5)
  8. Oregon (-3) @ California – Oregon won going away last year, California won the year before at home. These 2 teams are polar opposites.  Oregon’s offense has been good, but defensively not very.  Cal has had a good defense so far, but has been unable to move the ball.  Really how this game is dictated will determine the winner. If Oregon is able to dictate the pace and run the score up, then its likely they will pull out a win. If Cal is reasonably able to hold the pace down and get some stops, then they will likely pull out the win.
    1. My Pick: Oregon 31 – Cal 24 (Oregon -3)
    2. Formula: Oregon SU (Oregon -3)

 

The Rest:

  1. UNC @ 25 Miami (-18.5)
    1. My Pick: Miami SU (Miami -18.5)
    2. Formula: Miami SU (UNC +18.5)
  2. Memphis (-14) @ Tulane
    1. My Pick: Mem SU (Mem -14)
    2. Formula: Mem SU (PUSH)
  3. UCLA @ Colorado (CU -10)
    1. My Pick: Colorado SU (CU -10)
    2. Formula: Colorado SU (CU -10)
  4. Louisiana @ 1 Bama (-49)
    1. My Pick: Bama SU (Bama -49)
    2. Formula: Bama SU (Bama -49)
  5. Central Michigan @ Michigan St (-28.5)
    1. My Pick: MSU SU (CMU +28.5)
    2. Formula: MSU SU (CMU +28.5)
  6. Arkansas @ 23 TAMU (-20.5)
    1. My Pick: TAMU SU (TAMU -20.5)
    2. Formula: TAMU SU (Ark +20.5)
  7. Indiana (-17.5) @ Rutgers
    1. My Pick: Ind SU (Indiana -17.5)
    2. Formula: Ind SU (Indiana -17.5)
  8. Army @ Buffalo (-9)
    1. My Pick: Buff SU (Army +9)
    2. Formula: Buff SU (Army +9)
  9. Oklahoma St (-18) @ Kansas
    1. My Pick: Ok St SU (Kansas +18)
    2. Formula: Ok St SU (Kansas +18)
  10. Temple @ BC (-13.5)
    1. My Pick: BC SU (BC -13.5)
    2. Formula: BC SU (Temp +13.5)
  11. Bowling Green @ Georgia Tech (-28.5)
    1. My Pick: GT SU (GT -28.5)
    2. Formula: GT SU (BGU +28.5)
  12. Virginia @ 22 NC State (-6)
    1. My Pick: NCSU SU (UVA +6)
    2. Formula: NCSU SU (PUSH)
  13. UMASS @ Ohio (-13)
    1. My Pick: Ohio SU (UMASS +13)
    2. Formula: Ohio SU (UMASS +13)
  14. La-Monroe (-8) @ Georgia St
    1. My Pick: ULM SU (ULM -8)
    2. Formula: ULM SU (ULM -8)
  15. Kent St @ Ball St (-7.5)
    1. My Pick: BSU SU (BSU -7.5)
    2. Formula: BSU SU (KSU +7.5)
  16. Tennessee @ 4 Georgia (-31.5)
    1. My Pick: Georgia SU (Tenn +31.5)
    2. Formula: Georgia SU (Tenn +31.5)
  17. Baylor @ 7 Oklahoma (-23.5)
    1. My Pick: OU SU (OU -23.5)
    2. Formula: OU SU (Bay +23.5)
  18. 16 Texas (-8.5) @ Kansas St
    1. My Pick: Tex SU (KSU +8.5)
    2. Formula: Tex SU (Tex -8.5)
  19. Cincinnati (-17) @ UCONN
    1. My Pick: Cinci SU (Cinci -17)
    2. Formula: Cinci SU (Cinci -17)
  20. Old Dominion @ East Carolina (-5)
    1. My Pick: ECU SU ( ECU -7)
    2. Formula: ECU SU (ECU -7)
  21. Coastal Carolina @ Troy (-14)
    1. My Pick: Troy SU (Troy -14)
    2. Formula: Troy SU (CC +14)
  22. Western Michigan @ Miami (oh) (-1.5)
    1. My Pick: WMU SU (WMU +1.5)
    2. Formula: EVEN (WMU +1.5)
  23. USA @ Appalachian St (-26)
    1. My Pick: App St SU (USA +26)
    2. Formula: App St SU (USA +26)
  24. Rice @ Wake Forest (-25.5)
    1. My Pick: Wake SU (Rice +25.5)
    2. Formula: Wake SU (Rice +25.5)
  25. Purdue (-3) @ Nebraska
    1. My Pick: Neb SU (Neb +3)
    2. Formula: Pur SU (Purdue -3)
  26. FSU (-6) @ Louisville
    1. My Pick: FSU SU (FSU -6)
    2. Formula: FSU (FSU-6)
  27. Southern Miss @ 10 Auburn (-28.5)
    1. My Pick: Aub SU (Aub -28.5)
    2. Formula: Aub SU (Aub -28.5)
  28. Nevada @ Air Force (-7)
    1. My Pick: Nevada SU (Nev +7)
    2. Formula: Nevada SU (Nev +7)
  29. 6 Michigan (-14) @ Northwestern
    1. My Pick: Michigan SU (Mich -14)
    2. Formula: Mich SU (Mich -14)
  30. Utah @ Washington St (EVEN)
    1. My Pick: Wash St SU
    2. Formula: Wash St SU
  31. Liberty @ New Mexico (-6.5)
    1. My Pick: NM SU (NM -6.5)
    2. Formula: NM SU (Liberty +6.5)
  32. Arkansas St (-3) @ Georgia Southern
    1. My Pick: GSU SU (GSU +3)
    2. Formula: GSU SU (GSU +3)
  33. Northern Illinois @ Eastern Michigan (-3.5)
    1. My Pick: NIU SU (NIU +3.5)
    2. Formula: NIU SU (NIU +3.5)
  34. Virginia Tech @ 18 Duke (-5)
    1. My Pick: Duke SU (VT +5)
    2. Formula: Duke SU (Duke -5)
  35. UTEP @ UTSA (-10.5)
    1. My Pick: UTSA SU (UTSA -10.5)
    2. Formula: UTSA SU (UTEP +10.5)
  36. FAU (-4) @ MTSU
    1. My Pick: FAU SU (FAU -4)
    2. Formula: FAU SU (FAU -4)
  37. 20 Boise St (-17) @ Wyoming
    1. My Pick: Boise SU (Wyo +17)
    2. Formula: Boise SU (Boise -17)
  38. Hawaii (-13) @ San Jose St
    1. My Pick: Hawaii SU (SJSU +13)
    2. Formula: Hawaii SU (SJSU +13)
  39. Charlotte @ UAB (-17)
    1. My Pick: UAB SU (Char +17)
    2. Formula: UAB SU (Char +17)
  40. Iowa St @ TCU (-10.5)
    1. My Pick: TCU SU (Iowa St +10.5)
    2. Formula: TCU SU (Iowa St +10.5)
  41. South Carolina @ 14 KEntucky (-1.5)
    1. My Pick: SC SU (SC +1.5)
    2. Formula: UK SU (UK -1.5)
  42. La Tech @ North Texas (-7.5)
    1. My Pick: NT SU (NT -7.5)
    2. Formula: NT SU (NT -7.5)
  43. Marshall (-6.5) @ Western Kentucky
    1. My Pick: MU SU (MU -6.5)
    2. Formula: MU SU (MU -6.5)
  44. Ole Miss @ 9 LSU (-12)
    1. My Pick: LSU SU (LSU -12)
    2. Formula: LSU SU (LSU -12)
  45. Oregon St @ Arizona St (-21.5)
    1. My Pick: ASU SU (ASU -21.5)
    2. Formula: ASU SU (OSU +21.5)
  46. USC (-3) @ Arizona
    1. My Pick: USC SU (USC -3)
    2. Formula: USC SU (PUSH)
  47. Toledo @ Fresno St (-7.5)
    1. My Pick: Fresno St SU (Toledo -7.5)
    2. Formula: Fresno St SU (FSU -7.5)

Have a great weekend to all

Week 4 Preview

Finally beat the Formula this week.  Although it’s still up big on me for the year:

Straight up (Big-Games):

Me = 14-6

Formula = 13-7

 

ATS (Big Games):

Me = 6-12

Formula = 6-13

 

Straight up (all-Games):

Me = 99-40 (71%)

Formula = 104-38 (73%)

 

ATS:

Me = 59-73 (45%)

Formula = 71-63 (52%)

 

This week we have 2 ranked match-ups, and two others that should be a factor in divisional/conference races.  The other 2 are just the best of their respective groups.  Not a great week.

 

Big Games:

  1. 16 Notre Dame  @ Wake Forest – Last year Notre Dame won in a shoot-out.  Both offenses are struggling this year and Notre Dame’s defense is playing well and Wake’s is pretty scrappy. So I don’t think we will be seeing a replay of last year. What will probably make the difference is if Wake is able to do some damage in the run game.  If they can, then they can keep it close. If ND shuts it down, then this will end up a blow-out.
    1. My Pick: ND 41 WF 24 (ND -7.5)
    2. Formula: ND SU (ND -7.5)
  2. TCU @ 22 Texas – TCU has won easily the last 2 years (24-7 and 31-9).  Texas seems to be a better team this year so I don’t think we will see a replay.  It’s also in Austin and Texas will be ready to go.  Texas had a big upset last week at home against USC.  They will be looking to pull off another upset here and put their foot into the Big12/Playoff race.
    1. My Pick: TCU 24 Texas 21 (PUSH)
    2. Formula: Texas SU (Texas +3)
  3. Wisconsin @ Iowa – Wisconsin has won the last 2 years (38-14 and 17-9). Iowa’s defense has been playing lights out this year and Wisconsin’s has been suspect.  Wisconsin has one of the better Rushing Offenses in the nation, but haven’t looked as good as many expected.  Iowa’s offense has been abysmal. Wisconsin will look to get it’s ground game up and running at full capacity here. Likely come out with a chip on shoulder after last weeks upset loss to BYU. The winner will take control of the Big Ten West
    1. My Pick: Wisc 21 – Iowa 14 (Wisc -3.5)
    2. Formula: Wisc SU (Iowa +3.5)
  4. 8 Stanford @ 23 Oregon – Stanford has destroyed Oregon the last 2 years (49-7 and 52-27). Oregon’s defense is playing better this year than it has and Stanford’s offense has not gotten on track. So I don’t think we’ll be seeing Stanford score in the 40’s. Maybe not 30’s. The key will be how much Oregon can get their offense on track against a very stout Stanford defense.  A win here could put Stanford squarely in the thick of the Playoff race.
    1. My Pick: Stan 28 Oreg 21 (Stan -2)
    2. Formula: Stan SU (Stan -2)
  5. 25 Texas A&M @ 1 Alabama – Alabama has steamrolled all comers so far.  Now that they have a QB that can damage opposing defenses, instead of just being a game manager, they look unstoppable.  TAMU’s defense has not been great thus far, so they will have to rely on their offense being able to put up some points on Alabama. No easy task.  They have been unable to break 20 points the last 2 years (in Alabama wins). Don’t think this year will be much different. Although I think their defense will hold Bama to fewer points than anyone else.
    1. My Pick: Bama 41 TAMU 17 (Tamu +27)
    2. Formula: Bama SU (Tamu +27)
  6. FAU @ 15 UCF – In what looked preseason like a game that could go into the 90’s total, FAU’s offense has gotten off to a sputtering start (not bad, not great).  UCF has looked every bit the team people expected.  This is at the Bounce House on a Friday night.  FAU’s defense has been pretty porous so far against quality opponents.  UCF’s defense has looked improved over last year.
    1. My Pick: UCF 52 FAU 31 (UCF -13.5)
    2. Formula: UCF SU (UCF -13.5)

 

The Rest:

  1. Tulsa @ Temple (-7.5)
    1. My Pick: Temple SU (Tulsa +7.5)
    2. Formula: Tulsa SU (Tulsa +7.5)
  2. 5 Penn St (-28.5) @ Illinois
    1. My Pick: PSU SU (PSU -28.5)
    2. Formula: PSU SU (Illini +28.5)
  3. Wash St @ USC (-3.5)
    1. My Pick: USC SU (USC -3.5)
    2. Formula: USC SU (WSU +3.5)
  4. 3 UGA (-14.5) @ 20 Missouri
    1. My Pick: UGA SU (UGA -14.5)
    2. Formula: UGA SU (UGA -14.5)
  5. Nebraska @ 11 Michigan (-18.5)
    1. My Pick: Mich SU (Neb +18.5)
    2. Formula: Mich SU (Mich -18.5)
  6. BC (-7) @ Purdue
    1. My Pick: BC SU (BC -7)
    2. Formula: BC SU (BC -7)
  7. Kent St @ Ole Miss (-28)
    1. My Pick: Miss SU (KSU +28)
    2. Formula: Miss SU (KSU +28)
  8. Buffalo (-6) @ Rutgers
    1. My Pick: Buffalo SU (Rut +6)
    2. Formula: Buffalo SU (Rut +6)
  9. Minn @ Maryland (-3)
    1. My Pick: MD SU (MD -3)
    2. Formula: Minn SU (Minn +3)
  10. Akron @ Iowa St (-18.5)
    1. My Pick: ISU SU (Akron +18.5)
    2. Formula: ISU SU (Akron +18.5)
  11. Ohio @ Cincinnati (-8)
    1. My Pick: Cinci SU (Cinci -8)
    2. Formula: Cinci SU (Cinci -8)
  12. Nevada @ Toledo (-10)
    1. My Pick: Toledo SU (Nevada +10)
    2. Formula Toledo SU (Nev +10)
  13. Navy (-7) @ SMU
    1. My Pick: Navy SU (Navy -7)
    2. Formula: TIE (SMU +7)
  14. Pitt (-4.5) @ UNC
    1. My Pick: Pitt SU (Pitt -4.5)
    2. Formula: Pitt SU (Pitt -4.5)
  15. Louisville @ UVA (-5)
    1. My Pick: UVA SU (UVA -5)
    2. Formula: UVA SU (UL +5)
  16. Western Michigan (-7.5) @ Georgia State
    1. My Pick: WMU SU (WMU -7.5)
    2. Formula: WMU SU (WMU -7.5)
  17. Miami (oh) (-5) @ Bowling Green
    1. My Pick: BGU SU (BGU +5)
    2. Formula: Miami SU (Push)
  18. Western Kentucky @ Ball St (-3)
    1. My Pick: WKU SU (WKU +3)
    2. Formula: Ball St SU (Ball -3)
  19. 6 Clemson (-17) @ Georgia Tech
    1. My Pick: Clem SU (GT +17)
    2. Formula: Clem SU (Clem -17)
  20. Tulane @ 2 Ohio St (-35.5)
    1. My Pick: OSU SU (OSU -35.5)
    2. Formula: OSU SU (OSU -35.5)
  21. Kansas St @ 12 WVU (-16)
    1. My Pick WVU SU (WVU -16)
    2. Formula: WVU SU (PUSH)
  22. 9 Virginia Tech (-27.5) @ Old Dominion
    1. My Pick: VT SU (ODU +27.5)
    2. Formula: VT SU (VT -27.5)
  23. FIU @ Miami (-26.5)
    1. My Pick: Miami SU (FIU +26.5)
    2. Formula: Miami SU (FIU +26.5)
  24. Charlotte @ UMASS (-9)
    1. My Pick: Charlotte SU (Char +9)
    2. Formula: Charlotte SU (Char +9)
  25. Northern Illinois @ Florida State (-10)
    1. My Pick: FSU SU (FSU -10)
    2. Formula: FSU SU (FSU -10)
  26. Kansas @ Baylor (-7.5)
    1. My Pick: Kansas SU (Kan +7.5)
    2. Formula: Baylor SU (Kan +7.5)
  27. Arizona (-7) @ Oregon St
    1. My Pick: Arizona SU (Oreg St +7)
    2. Formula: AZ SU (OSU +7)
  28. South Carolina (-2) @ Vandy
    1. My Pick: Vandy SU (Vandy +2)
    2. Formula: Vandy SU (Vandy +2)
  29. UCONN @ Cuse (-27.5)
    1. My Pick: Cuse SU (UCONN +27.5)
    2. Formula: Cuse SU (Cuse -27.5)
  30. North Texas (-13.5) @ Liberty
    1. My Pick: NT SU (NT -13.5)
    2. Formula: NT SU (Lib +13.5)
  31. Army @ 4 Oklahoma (-31.5)
    1. My Pick: OU SU (OU -31.5)
    2. Formula: OU SU (OU -31.5)
  32. Louisiana Tech @ 7 LSU (-20)
    1. My Pick: LSU SU (LSU -20)
    2. Formula: LSU SU (LSU -20)
  33. 13 Mississippi St (MSU -10) @ 19 Kentucky
    1. My Pick: MSU SU (MSU -10)
    2. Formula: MSU SU (UK +10)
  34. Texas Tech @ 14 Oklahoma St (-13)
    1. My Pick: Ok St SU (Ok St -13)
    2. Formula: Ok St SU (TT +13)
  35. Rice @ Southern Mississippi (-14.5)
    1. My Pick: USM SU (Rice +14.5)
    2. Formula: USM SU (Rice +14.5)
  36. Texas St @ UTSA (-7.5)
    1. My Pick: UTSA SU (UTSA -7.5)
    2. Formula: UTSA SU (TSU +7.5)
  37. UNLV @ Arkansas St (-7.5)
    1. My Pick: ASU SU (ASU -7.5)
    2. Formula: UNLV SU (UNLV +7.5)
  38. Coastal Carolina @ Louisiana (-4)
    1. My Pick: CC SU (CC +4)
    2. Formula: CC SU (CC +4)
  39. Troy (-6) @ La-Monroe
    1. My Pick: Troy SU (Troy -6)
    2. Formula: Troy SU (ULM +6)
  40. NCSU (-6) @ Marshall
    1. My Pick: NCSU SU (NCSU -6)
    2. Formula: NCSU SU (NCSU -6)
  41. 18 UF (-4.5) @ Tennessee
    1. My Pick: UF SU (UF -4.5)
    2. Formula: UF SU (UF -4.5)
  42. Arkansas @ 10 Auburn (-29)
    1. My Pick: Auburn SU (Aub -29)
    2. Formula: Auburn SU (Ark +29)
  43. Michigan St (-4.5) @ Indiana
    1. My Pick: Indiana SU (Ind +4.5)
    2. Formula: MSU SU (Ind +4.5)
  44. New Mexico St (-3) @ UTEP
    1. My Pick: UTEP SU (UTEP +3)
    2. Formula: UTEP SU (UTEP +3)
  45. East Carolina @ South Florida (-22)
    1. My Pick: USF SU (ECU +22))
    2. Formula: USF SU (ECU +22)
  46. South Alabama @ Memphis (-29.5)
    1. My Pick: Mem SU (USA +29.5)
    2. Formula: Mem SU (USA +29.5)
  47. Air Force @ Utah St (-10.5)
    1. My Pick: USU SU (USU -10.5)
    2. Formula: USU SU (USU -10.5)
  48. Arizona St @ 17 Washington (-17.5)
    1. My Pick: Wash SU (ASU +17.5)
    2. Formula: Wash SU (ASU +17.5)
  49. Eastern Michigan @ San Diego St (-10.5)
    1. My Pick: SDSU SU (EMU +10.5)
    2. Formula: SDSU (EMU +10.5)

Picks in Bold are my best bets.

Good Luck to all teams and have fun watching

Week 3 Preview

Formula continues to beat up on me both Straight Up and Against the Spread.

Straight up (Big-Games):

Me = 11-3

Formula = 11-3

 

ATS (Big Games):

Me = 4-9

Formula = 4-9

 

Straight up (all-Games):

Me = 65-26 (71%)

Formula = 74-19 (80%)

 

ATS:

Me = 33-53 (38%)

Formula = 48-39 (55%)

 

This week there are a couple good match-ups but overall a down week.  Still have a few that will picture into the Playoff Picture. One more that could have, but was canceled due to Hurricane Florence (be safe).

Without further adieu here are this weeks games.

Big Games:

  1. 7 Boise St @ 24 Oklahoma St – Both teams have crushed weaker opponents so far this year.  First big test for both teams.  Boise St has a history of big upsets in these types of games, granted most of them were under Peterson and not Harsin, the availability is there.  Boise St seems to be playing very well and looks like they may have a NY6 bowl type of team. Think it’ll be a higher scoring game.
    1. My Pick: Boise St 35 Oklahoma St 31 (Boise -2.5)
    2. Formula: Boise St SU (Boise -2.5)
  2. 8 LSU @ 5 Auburn – Big SEC match-up here with Divisional, Conference, and National implications on the line.  Last year LSU beat Auburn at home by 3, 2 years ago Auburn won at home by 5.  Look for another close match-up. Both defenses should have good days. Very even match-up all around.
    1. My Pick: Auburn 24 LSU 14 (Aub -9.5)
    2. Formula Auburn SU (LSU +9.5)
  3. 2 Ohio St @ TCU – Neither team has faced any competition thus far. TCU started slow against SMU and looked in for a scare but ended up throttling them. Ohio St has dispatched of both opponents rather easily. Both teams are among the favorites for their respective conferences. So there is National implications on the line here.  With a win either team can greatly increase their resume and be Playoff Contenders. Both defenses have been stellar this year thus far. Ohio St’s offense has looked very good and TCU’s above average.
    1. My Pick: Ohio St 34  TCU 24 (TCU +13)
    2. Formula Ohio St SU (Ohio St -13)
  4. Washington @ Utah – Conference foes that have excellent defenses.  Washington has won both of the last 2 meetings buy 1 score (3 points in ’17 and 7 points in ’16).  I expect both defenses to really battle it out and slow this game down. Washington has a superior (far) offense and that might be the difference in this game as Browning has done very well against Utah the last 2 years.
    1. My Pick: Washington 24 Utah 14 (Wash -7)
    2. Formula: Washington SU (Wash -7)
  5. USC @ Texas – These 2 historic powers faced off last year with USC winning by 3 through the arm of Sam Darnold. Darnold is gone. Texas returns a lot.  It also is in Texas this year on the 2nd leg of a Home and Home (@USC last year). Both defenses should dominate this game and see a low scoring affair.
    1. My Pick: Texas 24 USC 21 (PUSH)
    2. Formula: USC SU (USC +3)
  6. Florida State @ Syracuse – Syracuse has not beaten FSU since the 1960’s (their lone win against FSU). FSU has won the last 10. Syracuse’s offense has been on fire against weaker opponents and FSU is mis-firing early in Taggart’s tenure.  If FSU does not get it going this could be a big win for Syracuse.  Look for FSU to continue to struggle as new schemes are implemented.  How much they struggle will be key here.  FSU won by 3 last year over Syracuse.
    1. My Pick: FSU 31 Syracuse 27 (FSU -3)
    2. Formula: FSU SU (FSU -3)

 

The Rest:

  1. Boston College (-5.5) @ Wake Forest
    1. My Pick: BC SU (BC -5.5)
    2. Formula: BC SU (BC -5.5)
  2. Georgia St @ Memphis
    1. My Pick: Memphis SU (Memphis -27.5)
    2. Formula: Memphis SU (GSU +27.5)
  3. Temple @ Maryland
    1. My Pick: MD SU (MD -16)
    2. Formula: MD SU (MD -16)
  4. 3 Oklahoma @ Iowa St
    1. My Pick: OU SU (OU -17)
    2. Formula: OU SU (OU -17)
  5. Rutgers @ Kansas
    1. My Pick: Rutgers SU (Rut +3)
    2. Formula: Rutgers SU (Rut +3)
  6. Troy @ Nebraska
    1. My Pick: Nebraska SU (Neb -11.5)
    2. Formula: Neb SU (Neb -11.5)
  7. Ball St @ Indiana
    1. My Pick: Indiana SU (Ind -16.5)
    2. Formula: Indiana SU (BSU +16.5)
  8. Kent St @ 10 Penn St
    1. My Pick: PSU SU (PSU -35)
    2. Formula: PSU SU (KSU +35)
  9. Miami @ Toledo
    1. My Pick: Miami SU (Miami -10)
    2. Formula: Miami SU (Miami -10)
  10. UTEP @ Tennessee
    1. My Pick: Tenn SU (Tenn -30.5)
    2. Formula: Tenn SU (Tenn -30.5)
  11. Hawaii @ Army
    1. My Pick: Army SU (Army -7)
    2. Formula: Hawaii SU (Hawaii +7)
  12. Georgia Tech @ Pittsburgh
    1. My Pick: GT SU (GT -4.5)
    2. Formula: GT SU (Pitt -4.5)
  13. Tulane @ UAB
    1. My Pick: UAB SU (UAB +4)
    2. Formula: Tulane SU (Tulane -4)
  14. 18 Vandy @ 20 ND
    1. My Pick: ND SU (ND -14)
    2. Formula: Vandy SU (Vandy +14)
  15. Georgia Southern @ 6 Clemson
    1. My Pick: Clem SU (GSU +33)
    2. Formula: Clem SU (GSU +33)
  16. USF @ Illinois
    1. My Pick: USF SU (Illini -10)
    2. Formula: USF SU (Illini -10)
  17. SMU @ 12 Michigan
    1. My Pick: Mich SU (Mich -35)
    2. Formula: Mich SU (Mich -35)
  18. Miami (Oh) @ Minnesota
    1. My Pick: Minn SU (Minn -14.5)
    2. Formula: Minn SU (Minn -14.5)
  19. BYU @ 15 Wisconsin
    1. My Pick: Wisc SU (Wisc -21)
    2. Formula: Wisc SU (BYU +21)
  20. Central Mich @ Northern Illinois
    1. My pick: NIU SU (NIU -14)
    2. Formula: NIU SU (CMU +14)
  21. Duke @ Baylor
    1. My Pick: Duke SU (Duke +6.5)
    2. Formula: Duke SU (Duke +6.5)
  22. Southern Miss @ Appalachian St
    1. My Pick: App St SU (USM +16)
    2. Formula: App St SU (UMS +16)
  23. UTSA @ Kansas St
    1. My Pick: KSU SU (KSU -21.5)
    2. Formula: KSU SU (UTSA +21.5)
  24. Colorado St @ Florida
    1. My Pick: UF SU (CSU +20)
    2. Formula: UF SU (CSU +20)
  25. North Texas @ Arkansas
    1. My Pick: Ark SU (Ark -7.5)
    2. Formula: Ark SU (NT +7.5)
  26. Houston @ Texas Tech
    1. My Pick: Houston SU (Hou -1)
    2. Formula: Hous SU (Hou -1)
  27. Ohio @ Virginia
    1. My Pick: UVA SU (UVA -3.5)
    2. Formula: UVA SU (UVA -3.5)
  28. San Jose St @ 23 Oregon
    1. My Pick: Oregon SU (SJSU +41)
    2. Formula: Oregon SU (SJSU +41)
  29. Eastern Michigan @ Buffalo
    1. My Pick: Buffalo SU (Buff -4.5)
    2. Formula: Buffalo SU (EMU +4.5)
  30. Old Dominion @ Charlotte
    1. My Pick: Charlotte SU (Char +1.5)
    2. Formula: Charlotte SU (Char +1.5)
  31. Oregon St @ Nevada
    1. My Pick: Oregon St SU (OSU +3.5)
    2. Formula: OSU SU (OSU +3.5)
  32. 1 Alabama @ 19 Ole Miss
    1. My Pick: Alabama SU (Bama -21)
    2. Formula: Alabama SU (PUSH)
  33. Arkansas St @ Tulsa
    1. My Pick: ASU SU (ASU -1.5)
    2. Formula: Tulsa SU (Tulsa +1.5)
  34. Texas St @ South Alabama
    1. My Pick: USA SU (TSU +10.5)
    2. Formula: USA SU (TSU +10.5)
  35. MTSU @ 4 Georgia
    1. My Pick: Georgia SU (UGA -32.5)
    2. Formula: UGA SU (UGA -32.5)
  36. Akron @ Northwestern
    1. My Pick: Northwestern SU (Akron +21.5)
    2. Formula: NW SU (Akron +21.5)
  37. 21 Missouri @ Purdue
    1. My Pick: Mizzou SU (Mizzou -7.5)
    2. Formula: Mizzou SU (Mizzou -7.5)
  38. Marshall @ South Carolina
    1. My Pick: USC SU (USC -13.5)
    2. Formula: USC SU (Marshall +13.5)
  39. Louisiana @ 16 Mississippi St
    1. My Pick: MSU SU (La +33)
    2. Formula: MSU SU (La +33)
  40. La-Monroe @ Texas AM
    1. My Pick: TAMU SU (TAMU -27)
    2. Formula: TAMU SU (ULM +27)
  41. Western KY @ Louisville
    1. My Pick: UL SU (UL -23)
    2. Formula: UL SU (UL -23)
  42. UMASS @ Florida Int’l
    1. My Pick: FIU SU (FIU -4)
    2. Formula: FIU SU (FIU -4)
  43. New Mexico @ New Mexico St
    1. My Pick: NM SU (NM -5)
    2. Formula: NM SU (NM -5)
  44. Fresno St @ UCLA
    1. My Pick: UCLA SU
    2. Formula: UCLA SU
  45. 22 Arizona St @ San Diego St
    1. My Pick: ASU SU (ASU -5)
    2. Formula: ASU SU (ASU -5)

Be Safe and have fun watching Football.

Week 2 Preview

Was a mixed bag last week for me.  Did great Straight up, but awful Against The Spread.  Formula did better in  both aspects.

Straight up (Big-Games):

Me = 6-2

Formula = 5-3

 

ATS (Big Games):

Me = 2-6

Formula = 2-6

 

Straight up (all-Games):

Me = 31-12

Formula = 34-9

 

ATS:

Me = 15-25

Formula = 21-19

 

Looking for a better week this week ATS.  Pretty slim pickings for games this week, but we do have Two (2) ranked match-ups and a few others that are intriguing. Again we will give my picks and the Formula’s picks for every game, with a short write-up on the big games:

 

Big Games:

  1. 5 Georgia (-10) @ South Carolina – SEC East rivalry game.  Game could go a long way in determining who wins the SEC East, as both are 2 of the favorites in that division.  Georgia is the favorite, but winning in Columbia is no cake-walk. Last year Georgia won 24-10 in Athens.  Neither team has a significant advantage in experience, although Georgia has a significant talent advantage.
    1. My Pick – Georgia 24 – South Carolina 14 (PUSH)
    2. Formula – Georgia Straight up (UGA -10)
  2. 4 Clemson (-12) @ Texas A&M – These teams have no seen each other, but the coaches have a nice little rivalry going in Jimbo Fisher and Dabo Swinney, so they are very familiar with each other.  The home of the 12th man is no easy place to gain a victory and Jimbo knows how to play against Clemson.  Clemson has the clear advantage here in both talent and experience. TAMU should struggle to score (as anyone does against Clemson). If Lawrence plays QB for Clemson this one could potentially get ugly, if not TAMU should be able to hang around.
    1. My Pick – Clemson 31 – TAMU 17 (Clemson -12)
    2. Formula – Clemson SU (Clemson -12)
  3. 17 Southern Cal @ 11 Stanford (5.5) – Pac 12 rivalry game.  A win will catapult the winner into the Playoff picture, a loss will not drop either out of the picture.  Last year USC won at home 42-24. Both teams are pretty equal in talent and experience.  Should be a close game.  Question is going to be if Stanford can hit some shots in the passing game and open up some room for Heisman Candidate Bryce Love.
    1. My Pick – Stanford 31 – USC 28 (USC +5.5)
    2. Formula – Stanford SU (USC +5.5)
  4. Iowa (-4) @ Iowa St – Good early season rivalry game here.  Iowa won last year in a shoot-out 44-41. This year it shifts to a home game for Iowa St. Both teams are pretty equal talent wise and Iowa St has more experience coming back.
    1. My Pick – Iowa St 41 – Iowa 38 (Iowa St +4)
    2. Formula – Iowa SU (PUSH)
  5. Penn St (-9) @ Pittsburgh – another traditional early season rivalry game. Last year Penn St won 33-14, but last time in Pittsburgh, Pitt upset Penn St (and ended up being the game that kept them out of the playoff). Penn St has gotten significantly more talented since then with top recruiting classes, Pitt has not.
    1. My Pick – Penn St 34 – Pitt 21 (PSU -9)
    2. Formula – Penn St SU (Pitt +9)
  6. Georgia Tech (-3.5) @ South Florida – One of the few Power 5 v Group of 5 games where there isn’t a significant talent advantage.  With the Group of 5 team being at home that presents a unique challenge for Georgia Tech.  They do have an experience advantage.  Will Paul Johnson’s Triple Option offense be able to control the ball and make plays when needed against a fast and scrappy USF defense?
    1. My Pick – USF 25 – GT 17 (USF +3.5)
    2. Formula – USF SU (USF +3.5)

 

The Rest:

  1. TCU @ SMU
    1. My Pick – TCU SU (TCU -22.5)
    2. Formula – TCU SU (SMU +22.5)
  2. 23 Mississippi St @ Kansas St
    1. My Pick – Miss St SU (KSU +9)
    2. Formula – Miss St SU (Miss St -9)
  3. Western Mich @ 13 Michigan
    1. My Pick – Michigan SU (WMU +28)
    2. Formula – Michigan SU (WMU +28)
  4. Duke @ Northwestern
    1. My Pick – Northwestern SU (NW -2.5)
    2. Formula – Duke SU (Duke +2.5)
  5. Eastern Michigan @ Purdue
    1. My Pick – Purdue SU (Purdue -16.5)
    2. Formula – Purdue SU (EMU +16.5)
  6. New Mexico @ 19 Wisconsin
    1. My Pick – Wisconsin SU (NM +34.5)
    2. Formula – Wisconsin SU (Wisconsin -34.5)
  7. Nevada @ 24 Vanderbilt
    1. My Pick – Vandy SU (Nevada +8.5)
    2. Formula – Vandy SU (Vandy -8.5)
  8. Arizona @ Houston
    1. My Pick – Houston SU (Hou -4)
    2. Formula – Houston SU (AZ +4)
  9. Liberty @ Army
    1. My Pick – Army SU (Army -9.5)
    2. Formula – Liberty SU (Liberty +9.5)
  10. Georgia St @ NC State
    1. My Pick – NCSU SU (GSU +24.5)
    2. Formula – NCSU SU (GSU +24.5)
  11. UCLA @ 2 Oklahoma
    1. My Pick – OU SU (OU -32)
    2. Formula – OU SU (OU -32)
  12. Air Force @ FAU
    1. My Pick – FAU SU (FAU -9.5)
    2. Formula – FAU SU (AFA +9.5)
  13. Kansas @ Central Michigan
    1. My Pick – CMU SU (CMU -5)
    2. Formula – CMU SU (CMU -5)
  14. Buffalo @ Temple
    1. My Pick – Temple SU (Temple -4.5)
    2. Formula – Buffalo SU (Buffalo +4.5)
  15. Colorado @ Nebraska
    1. My Pick – Nebraska SU (Neb -3.5)
    2. Formula – Colorado SU (Color +3.5)
  16. Rutgers @ 3 Ohio St
    1. My Pick – Ohio St SU (Ohio St -35)
    2. Formula – Ohio St SU (Rutgers +35)
  17. Arkansas St @ 1 Alabama
    1. My Pick – Alabama SU (Alabama -36)
    2. Formula – Alabama SU (Alabama -36)
  18. North Carolina @ East Carolina
    1. My Pick – UNC SU (ECU +17)
    2. Formula – UNC SU (UNC -17)
  19. Memphis @ Navy
    1. My Pick – Memphis SU (Navy +7.5)
    2. Formula – Memphis SU (Memphis -7.5)
  20. Ball St @ 9 Notre Dame
    1. My Pick – ND SU (ND -37.5)
    2. Formula – ND SU (ND -37.5)
  21. 18 Maryland @ Bowling Green
    1. My Pick – MD SU (BGU +16)
    2. Formula – MD SU (MD -16)
  22. UMASS @ Georgia Southern
    1. My Pick – Georgia Southern SU (GSU -2.5)
    2. Formula – GSU SU (GSU -2.5)
  23. Appalachian St @ Charlotte
    1. My Pick – App St SU (ASU -14)
    2. Formula – App St SU (ASU -14)
  24. Wyoming @ 25 Missouri
    1. My Pick – Missouri SU (Wyoming +18.5)
    2. Formula – Missouri SU (Mizzou -18.5)
  25. La-Monroe @ Southern Miss
    1. My Pick – USM SU (USM -5.5)
    2. Formula – ULM SU (ULM +5.5)
  26. UAB @ Coastal Carolina
    1. My Pick – UAB SU (UAB -10)
    2. Formula – UAB SU (CC +10)
  27. Baylor @ UTSA
    1. My Pick – Baylor SU (UTSA +15.5)
    2. Formula – Baylor SU (Baylor -15.5)
  28. Virginia @ Indiana
    1. My Pick – Indiana SU (Indiana -6.5)
    2. Formula – Indiana SU (UVA +6.5)
  29. Fresno St @ Minnesota
    1. My Pick – Minnesota SU (Minn -2.5)
    2. Formula – Minn SU (Minn -2.5)
  30. Utah @ Northern Illinois
    1. My Pick – Utah SU (Utah -10)
    2. Formula – Utah SU (Utah -10)
  31. Kentucky @ 12 Florida
    1. My pick – Florida SU (UF -13.5)
    2. Formula – Florida SU (UK +13.5)
  32. Arkansas @ Colorado St
    1. My Pick – Arkansas SU (Ark -14)
    2. Formula – Arkansas SU (Ark -14)
  33. Florida International @ Old Dominion
    1. My Pick – FIU SU
    2. Formula – FIU SU
  34. South Alabama @ Oklahoma St
    1. My Pick – OSU SU (OSU -32)
    2. Formula – OSU SU (USA +32)
  35. New Mexico St @ Utah St
    1. My Pick – USU SU (NMSU +24)
    2. Formula – USU SU (USU -24)
  36. Cincinnati @ Miami (ohio)
    1. My Pick – MU SU (MU -1)
    2. Formula – Cincinnati SU (CU +1)
  37. Tulsa @ Texas
    1. My Pick – Texas SU (Tulsa +23)
    2. Formula – Texas SU (Tulsa +23)
  38. UTEP @ UNLV
    1. My Pick – UNLV SU (UNLV -23.5)
    2. Formula – UNLV SU (UTEP +23.5)
  39. Cal @ BYU
    1. My Pick – Cal SU (Cal +3)
    2. Formula – Cal SU (Cal +3)
  40. UCONN @ 14 Boise St
    1. My Pick – Boise SU (Boise -31.5)
    2. Formula – Boise SU (Boise -31.5)
  41. Michigan St @ 21 Arizona St
    1. My Pick – MSU SU (MSU -6)
    2. Formula – ASU SU (ASU +6)
  42. San Jose ST @ Washington St
    1. My Pick – Wash St SU (WSU -34.5)
    2. Formula – WSU SU (SJSU +34.5)

 

Have fun watching the games.

Week 1-2018

Last year I was correct on 67% of the picks (both big games and all games). I’ll look to build on that success this year.  Also this year I will also put down the formula’s picks ATS, as well as compare the Formula’s Straight Up picks for all games with my own.

1-Big Games – Games between Ranked opponents, each Power 5 conferences biggest game, and biggest game for Group of 5. Usually will be 6-7 games, sometimes more depending on the quality of match-ups. Will usually include some kind of write-up and score prediction.

2-All Games – The Rest of the games between FBS opponents.

All Games will include The Formula’s pick Straight up and ATS, as well as My own picks.

 

Big Games:

Lot of big games in week 1, as is usually the case with a lot of Prime-Time Out of Conference match-ups. Four games feature ranked opponents facing off, one has a ranked opponent on the road against a quality opponent, and a few other games to round it out.

  1. Florida Atlantic @ 13 Oklahoma (-20.5) – At first glance you may think, why is this game on here.  FAU has a very potent offense with an NFL caliber running back (and lots of Power 5 transfers).  Oklahoma has a very porous defense that doesn’t look to be much better.  FAU returns a lot on both sides of the ball of a very good team. OU loses a heisman winner.  This should be a high scoring affair, and FAU will keep it closer than many would expect.
    1. My Pick – OU 41 – FAU 35 (FAU +20.5)
    2. Formula – Oklahoma SU (FAU +20.5)
  2. 18 Tennessee v West Virginia (-10) – Best match-up for a Big 12 school. Also a very intriguing one.  New coach for Tennessee and a Heisman candidate at QB for WVU.  Will be interesting to see how much success Grier can have against a Pruitt defense.  Pruitt’s defenses at new locations have typically started slow against quality opponents, before hitting stride mid-season (year 1).
    1. My Pick – WVU 31 – Tenn 28 (Tenn +10)
    2. Formula – Tennessee SU (Tenn +10)
  3. San Diego St @ 10 Stanford (-14) – Another game that you might question why is it here.  Last year Stanford went to San Diego and lost 20-17.  This year SDSU travels to Stanford.  Stanford returns a good amount including Heisman candidate at RB. San Diego St was led by their defense and RB last year, much of the defense is gone as is Penny the RB. This game should look significantly different than last year’s Defensive slug-fest.
    1. My Pick – Stanford 34 – SDSU 21 (SDSU +14)
    2. Formula – Stanford SU (Stanford -14)
  4. 8 Washington v 7 Auburn (-2) – Perhaps the biggest game of the day.  Both were in the Playoff Hunt last year and look to be in it again this year. Washington is the favorite for the Pac 12 Championship, and Auburn is one of the better teams in the SEC (will come down to their game against Alabama, again).  Both teams return a lot from last year’s very good teams. Particularly on offense.  Both teams have been prolific defensively the last several years and inconsistent offensively.  This game will come down to which offense can find consistency.
    1. My Pick – Auburn 27 – Washington 24 (Auburn – 2)
    2. Formula – Auburn SU (Washington +2)
  5. Boise St (-10.5) @ Troy – Boise St is not ranked by SF, but they are ranked in both media polls.  Should be 2 of the better Group of 5 teams. Boise St is very well balanced and Troy despite losing a bunch should still have a quality defense, and make a run at the Sun Belt championship.
    1. My Pick – Boise St 28 – Troy 24 (Troy +10.5)
    2. Formula – Boise St SU (Troy +10.5)
  6. 9 Michigan @ 19 Notre Dame (-1) – The old rivalry is back. They have been playing this game since 1887 mostly yearly (with a few hiatus’). They haven’t played since 2014 when ND moved their sports to the ACC. The 5th year seniors have faced off once with Notre Dame winning by 31, but a LOT has changed since then. ND returns a good amount of players off of a top 15 team. Michigan returns a good amount as well, but has recruited very well over the last several years.  Both defenses should be top 20 defenses, with ND having the better offense, although that remains to be seen with Harbaugh now having a quality QB.
    1. My Pick – Notre Dame 21 – Michigan 17 (ND -1)
    2. Formula – Michigan SU (Michigan +1)
  7. 23 Miami (-3.5) v 14 LSU – Both teams had good defenses last year, albeit in different ways. Miami was a big play defense that you could move the ball on, LSU was tough to move the ball on. LSU is adept at running the ball, although they lost star RB Derrius Guice. Miami had a balanced offense a year ago. Both Quarterbacks leave a lot to be desired.  I think Miami’s defense will come back down to earth this year and not create so many turnovers, although they will be tougher to move the ball against. However in game 1 against LSU I think we will see the Turnover Chain a decent amount.
    1. My Pick – Miami 24 – LSU 17 (Miami -3.5)
    2. Formula – LSU SU (LSU +3.5)
  8. Virginia Tech @ 5 FSU (-7.5) – Lot of unknowns in this game. How will FSU look with new coach and new schemes? How will VT do on defense with so many suspensions and departures? The new staff at FSU and huge shift in culture should create a lot of buzz and excitement in game 1. Should see a vastly improved FSU team over last years 7-6 team. Would be foolish to expect VT to fall to far with Fuente/Foster manning the helm, should still put together a borderline top 25, 8+ win season.
    1. My Pick – FSU 31 – VT 21 (FSU -7.5)
    2. Formula – FSU SU (FSU -7.5)

The Rest:

  1. Appalachian St @ 3 Penn St
    1. My Pick – Penn St SU (Penn St -23.5)
    2. Formula – Penn St SU (PSU -23.5)
  2. Wake Forest @ Tulane
    1. My Pick – Wake SU (Wake -6)
    2. Formula – Wake SU (Wake -6)
  3. Syracuse @ Western Michigan
    1. My Pick – Cuse SU (Cuse -5)
    2. Formula – Cuse SU (Cuse -5)
  4. Army @ Duke
    1. My Pick – Duke SU (Army +13.5)
    2. Formula – Duke SU (Duke -13.5)
  5. UMASS @ BC
    1. My Pick – BC SU (BC -18)
    2. Formula – BC SU (BC -18)
  6. UNC @ Cal
    1. My Pick – Cal SU (Cal -7.5)
    2. Formula – Cal SU (Cal -7.5)
  7. Louisville @ 1 Alabama
    1. My Pick – Bama SU (UL +24.5)
    2. Formula – Bama SU (UL +24.5)
  8. 24 UCF @ UCONN
    1. My Pick – UCF SU (UCONN +23.5)
    2. Formula – UCF SU (UCF -23.5)
  9. Houston @ Rice
    1. My Pick – Houston SU (Rice +25.5)
    2. Formula – Houston SU (Rice +25.5)
  10. Cincinnati @ 25 UCLA
    1. My Pick – UCLA SU (UCLA -15)
    2. Formula – UCLA SU (UCLA – 15)
  11. SMU @ North Texas
    1. My Pick – SMU SU (SMU -4.5)
    2. Formula – SMU SU (SMU -4.5)
  12. Navy @ Hawaii
    1. My Pick – Navy SU (Navy -11)
    2. Formula – Navy SU (Navy -11)
  13. 17 Texas v Maryland
    1. My Pick – Texas SU (Texas -13.5)
    2. Formula – Texas SU (Maryland +13.5)
  14. Ole Miss v Texas Tech
    1. My Pick – Ole Miss SU (Ole Miss +2.5)
    2. Formula – Ole Miss SU (Ole Miss +2.5)
  15. New Mexico St @ Minnesota
    1. My Pick – Minnesota SU (Minn – 21)
    2. Formula – Minnesota SU (Minn -21)
  16. Northwestern @ Purdue
    1. My Pick – Purdue SU (Purdue -1)
    2. Formula – Northestern SU (Northwestern +1)
  17. Utah St @ 20 Michigan St
    1. My Pick – MSU SU (USU +23.5)
    2. Formula – MSU SU ( USU +23.5)
  18. Western Kentucky @ 6 Wisconsin
    1. My Pick – Wisc SU (Wisc -34)
    2. Formula – Wisc SU (Wisc -34)
  19. Oregon St @ 11 Ohio St
    1. My Pick – Ohio St SU (Oregon St +38.5)
    2. Formula – Ohio St SU (Oregon St +38.5)
  20. Kent St @ Illinois
    1. My Pick – Illinois SU (Ilini -16.5)
    2. Formula – Illinois SU (Kent St +16.5)
  21. Texas St @ Rutgers
    1. My Pick – Rutgers SU (Texas St +16)
    2. Formula – Rutgers SU (Texas St +16)
  22. Northern Illinois @ Iowa
    1. My Pick – Iowa SU (NIU +10.5)
    2. Formula – Iowa SU (Iowa -10.5)
  23. Indiana @ FIU
    1. My Pick – Indiana SU (Ind -10.5)
    2. Formula – Indiana SU (Ind -10.5)
  24. Akron @ Nebraska
    1. My Pick – Nebraska SU (Nebraska -24.5)
    2. Formula – Nebraska SU (Akron +24.5)
  25. Marshall @ Miami (Oh)
    1. My Pick – Marshall SU (Marshall -2.5)
    2. Formula – Marshall SU ( Marshall -2.5)
  26. Old Dominion
    1. My Pick – ODU SU (ODU -7)
    2. Formula – ODU SU (ODU -7)
  27. Louisiana Tech @ South Alabama
    1. My Pick – USA SU (USA +10.5)
    2. Formula – LT SU (USA +10.5)
  28. Middle Tennessee St @ Vanderbilt
    1. My Pick – MTSU SU (MTSU +3)
    2. Formula – Vandy SU (MTSU +3)
  29. UTSA @ Arizona St
    1. My Pick – ASU SU (ASU -18.5)
    2. Formula – ASU SU (ASU -18.5)
  30. BYU @ Arizona
    1. My Pick – Arizona SU (BYU +12)
    2. Formula – Arisona SU (BYU +12)
  31. Central Michigan @ Kentucky
    1. My Pick – Kentucky SU (Kentucky -17)
    2. Formula – Kentucky SU (CMU +17)
  32. Bowling Green @ Oregon
    1. My Pick – Oregon SU (Oregon -32)
    2. Formula – Oregon SU (Oregon -32)
  33. Colorado @ Colorado St
    1. My Pick – CU SU (CU -7.5)
    2. Formula – CU SU (CU -7.5)
  34. Washington St @ Wyoming
    1. My Pick – Wyoming SU (Wyoming +1)
    2. Formula – WSU SU (WSU -1)
  35. UNLV @ USC
    1. My Pick – USC SU (USC -26.5)
    2. Formula – USC SU (USC – 26.5)
  36. Coastal Carolina @ South Carolina
    1. My Pick – So Car SU (So Car -29.5)
    2. Formula – So Car SU (CC +29.5)

 

Have fun watching the games! Isn’t it great to have Football Back!!??!!

SEC coach Rankings

  1. Nick Saban – Alabama
  2. Dan Mullen – Florida
  3. Jimbo Fisher – Texas AM
  4. Kirby Smart – Georgia
  5. Gus Malzahn – Auburn
  6. Ed Orgeron – LSU
  7. Mark Stoops – Kentucky
  8. Barry Odom – Missouri
  9. Will Muschamp – Florida
  10. Matt Luke – Ole Miss
  11. Derek Mason – Vanderbilt
  12. Chad Morris – Arkansas

Unranked:

Joe Moorhead – Mississippi St

Jeremy Pruitt – Tennessee

Pac 12 Coach Rankings

  1. David Shaw – Stanford
  2. Chris Peterson – Washington
  3. Clay Helton – USC
  4. Mike Leach – Washington St
  5. Kevin Sumlin – Arizona
  6. Kyle Whittingham – Utah
  7. Justin Wilcox – Cal
  8. Mike Macintyre – Colorado

Not Ranked (First year coaching in last 5 years)

Chip Kelly – UCLA

Jonathan Smith – Oregon St

Herm Edwards – Arizona St

Mario Cristobal – Oregon