Playoff Outlook

So in the 5 years of the playoff No playoff team has had lower than a 4.11 SF rating, lower than a 7.0 Win Share, AND lower than a 19 AP Ranking. There are 16 teams for 2019 who will likely (AP hasn’t come out yet) fit that criteria.

  1. Alabama
  2. Clemson
  3. Georgia
  4. LSU
  5. Mississippi St
  6. Texas
  7. Oklahoma
  8. Oregon
  9. Washington
  10. Utah
  11. Ohio St
  12. Michigan St
  13. Iowa
  14. Wisconsin
  15. Penn St
  16. Michigan

75% of the playoff participants have had a rating of 4.51 or higher, win-share of 8.7 or higher and a ranking of 8 or lower. There are 7 teams who meet that criteria.

  1. Alabama
  2. Clemson
  3. Georgia
  4. LSU
  5. Texas
  6. Oklahoma
  7. Ohio State

So look for 3 of the 4 playoff participants to come from those 7 and then 1 to come from the remaining 9 on the above list (Mississippi St, Oregon, Washington, Utah, Michigan, Michigan St, Wisconsin, Iowa, or Penn St).

SF has prediction Alabama, Clemson, Oklahoma, and Washington

Simplified Football Top 25

We will look at 2 different sets of Top 25. The first one is the Power ranking. This is purely a look at the teams ratings, it has some correspondence with how they may finish, but it’s not a projection of where they finish. The 2nd takes that and looks at schedules (W/L and SOS) and projects how they will finish to end the season.

SF Power Top 25

RankTeamRating
1Alabama5.38
2Georgia5.00
3Oklahoma4.95
4Clemson4.93
5LSU4.82
6Ohio St4.78
7Washington4.72
8Oregon4.60
9Penn State4.57
10Michigan4.56
11Texas4.55
12Michigan State4.55
13FSU4.43
14Auburn4.38
15Utah4.38
16USC4.37
17Stanford4.36
18Wisconsin4.35
19Florida4.34
20TCU4.34
21Texas A&M4.29
22Iowa4.21
23Mississippi St4.20
24UCF4.19
25South Carolina4.18

Projected Final Top 25

RankTeamRecord
1Alabama15-0 National Champ
2Clemson13-2 Runner-Ups
3Georgia12-2
4Oklahoma12-2 Playoff/Big 12 Champ
5Michigan11-3 B1G Champ
6Washington11-3 Playoff/Pac 12 Champ
7LSU11-2
8Penn St10-3
9Texas10-4
10UCF12-2 AAC Champ
11Ohio St10-3
12Wisconsin10-4
13Miami10-4
14FSU9-4
15Texas A&M9-4
16Auburn9-4
17Notre Dame9-4
18Oregon9-4
19Boise St12-2 MWC Champ
20Purdue9-4
21Michigan St9-4
22TCU9-4
23Florida8-5
24Kansas St8-5
25Iowa St9-4

2019 Independent Preview

Standings

TeamWin-ShareRecordRating
Army
Black Knights
7.19-33.16
Notre Dame
Fighting Irish
6.88-44.10
BYU Cougars5.06-63.62
Liberty Flames6.56-63.44
UMASS
Minutemen
4.74-82.88
New Mexico St
Aggies
4.02-102.92

Notes

Notre Dame made it to the playoffs a year ago, but lost quite a bit and will likely take a step back with a tougher schedule. They will still be a top 25 team.

Army should once again be the top Military team and continues to improve.

Bowl Projection

TeamBowl Projection
Notre DamePinstripe Bowl
ArmyMilitary Bowl
BYUHawaii Bowl
LibertyN/A

2019 Sun Belt Preview

East Division

PlaceTeamWin-Share (Conf)Record (Conf)Rating
1Appalachian State
Mountaineers
7.5 (5.2)9-3 (7-1)3.55
2Troy Trojans6.5 (4.4)9-3 (6-2)3.24
3Georgia Southern
Eagles
6.9 (4.6)7-5 (5-3)3.44
4Georgia State
Panthers
5.3 (3.6)4-8 (3-5)3.03
5Coastal Carolina
Chanticleers
4.7 (2.7)4-8 (2-6)2.80

West Division

PlaceTeamWin-Share (Conf)Record (Conf)Rating
1La-Monroe
Warhawks
5.8 (4.4)6-6 (5-3)3.25
1Arkansas St
Red Wolves
6.6 (4.6)7-5 (5-3)3.34
3Louisiana
Rajin-Cajuns
6.9 (4.7)6-6 (4-4)3.37
4Texas State
Bobcats
4.4 (2.8)3-9 (2-6)2.76
5USA
Jaguars
4.3 (2.9)2-10 (1-7)2.83

Championship Game

Appalachian State over Louisiana-Monroe

Notes

Appalachian State will look to make it 4 straight years with either a Conference Championship or Co-Championship. We think they will accomplish that. They will probably take a step back as the East looks to be a pretty tough division (top 3 teams in the Sun Belt), but still have enough to win it. Lot of coaching turmoil in the Sun Belt with a couple coaches fired and a couple moving on to bigger jobs.

App State nor Troy will likely garner much Top 25 attention. 6 bowl eligible teams, although half will likely be on the outside looking in come Bowl season.

Bowl Projections

TeamBowl Projections
App StateNew Orleans Bowl
TroyDollar General
La-Monroe
Georgia SouthernCamellia Bowl
Arkansas St
Louisiana

2019 MAC Preview

East Division

PlaceTeamWin-Share (Conf)Record (Conf)Rating
1Buffalo Bulls5.4 (3.8)6-6 (5-3)3.07
1Ohio Bobcats6.3 (4.2)7-5 (5-3)3.22
3Akron Zips5.2 (3.7)4-8 (4-4)2.91
4Miami (oh)
Redhawks
4.8 (3.7)4-8 (3-5)3.13
4Bowling Green
Falcons
4.9 (3.6)4-8 (3-5)2.90
4Kent State
Golden Flash
4.4 (3.5)4-8 (3-5)2.89

West Division

PlaceTeamWin-Share (Conf)Record (Conf)Rating
1Toledo Rockets8.0 (5.7)9-3 (7-1)3.70
2NIU Huskies6.1 (4.5)6-6 (5-3)3.39
2WMU Broncos7.1 (5.0)7-5 (5-3)3.52
4CMU Chippewas5.6 (3.7)5-7 (3-5)3.21
4EMU Eagles4.9 (3.3)4-8 (3-5)2.95
6Ball State
Cardinals
5.2 (3.3)3-9 (2-6)3.05

Championship Game

Toledo over Buffalo

Notes

Buffalo once again makes it to the championship game, this time falling short against Toledo. Toledo can make a solid case for a top 25 team. May be the best MAC team in several years. Probably 3rd best Group of 5 team after Boise St and UCF. Overall it looks to be a down year for the MAC. Not a lot of depth this year. A few of the better programs look to have rebuilding years.

No other team outside of Toledo makes a good case for Top 25 contention. 5 teams are eligible for bowls, although it’s likely 1 could end up on the outside looking in.

Bowl Projections

TeamBowl Projections
ToledoTart Cherry Bowl
Western MichCamellia Bowl
BuffaloIdaho Potato Bowl
NIUDollar General Bowl
OhioN/A

2019 CUSA Preview

East Division

PlaceTeamWin-Share (Conf)Record (Conf)Rating
1Marshall
Thundering Herd
8.5 (5.8)9-3 (7-1)3.74
2FAU Owls5.9 (4.2)7-5 (5-3)3.38
2FIU Panthers7.2 (4.7)7-5 (5-3)3.44
4MTSU
Blue Raiders
5.4 (4.0)4-8 (3-5)3.27
4Western KY
Hilltoppers
5.7 (3.8)4-8 (3-5)3.11
6Charlotte 49ers5.5 (3.8)4-8 (2-6)3.10
6Old Dominion
Monarchs
3.3 (2.2)3-9 (2-6)2.71

West Division

PlaceTeamWin-Share (Conf)Record (Conf)Rating
1North Texas
Mean Green
8.1 (5.7)8-4 (6-2)3.71
2UAB Blazers7.1 (4.7)8-4 (5-3)3.29
2Louisiana Tech
Bulldogs
6.9 (4.4)8-4 (5-3)3.46
2Southern Miss
Golden Eagles
5.9 (4.3)6-6 (5-3)3.30
2UTSA
Roadrunners
6.3 (4.5)7-5 (5-3)3.25
6Rice Owls3.0 (2.4)2-10 (2-6)2.82
7UTEP
Miners
3.1 (1.7)2-10 (1-7)2.47

Championship Game

Marshall over North Texas

Notes

There is a lot of parity in the CUSA in 2019 at the top. Lot of good teams and lot of not so good teams. Some teams that many may expect to be good, could find themselves on the outside looking in (Bowl season) and still have a pretty good team. Should make for some exciting match-ups during the regular season.

I have Marshall winning their first championship since 2014. They would mark the 4th different team to win the CUSA in as many years. FAU looks to have a rebound year after a disappointing 2018 where a lot was expected and they failed to make a bowl game.

No CUSA teams will finish in the top 25, but Marshall may finish with a few votes. 8 teams make a bowl.

Bowl Projections

TeamBowl Projections
MarshallBahamas Bowl Bowl
North TexasGasparilla Bowl
UABNew Orleans Bowl
Louisiana TechFirst Responders Bowl
FAUFrisco Bowl
FIUNew Mexico Bowl
UTSANo Bowl
Southern MissNo Bowl

2019 MWC Preview

Mountain Division

PlaceTeamWin-Share (Conf)Record (Conf)Rating
1Boise St
Broncos
9.6 (6.9)10-2 (7-1)4.12
2Utah State
Aggies
6.4 (4.2)8-4 (6-2)3.45
3Wyoming
Cowboys
5.6 (3.5)7-5 (5-3)3.11
4Air Force
Falcons
6.1 (4.1)7-5 (4-4)3.33
5Colorado St
Rams
6.0 (3.9)4-8 (3-5)3.35
6New Mexico
Lobos
3.7 (2.2)3-9 (1-7)2.66

West Division

PlaceTeamWin-Share (Conf)Record (Conf)Rating
1San Diego St
Aztecs
7.8 (5.2)9-3 (6-2)3.74
2Fresno St
Bulldogs
7.1 (4.7)8-4 (5-3)3.51
2Hawaii
Rainbow Warriors
7.4 (4.6)7-5 (5-3)3.53
4Nevada
Wolfpack
5.4 (3.5)5-7 (3-5)3.10
5UNLV Rebels4.3 (2.6)4-8 (2-6)3.02
6San Jose St
Spartans
4.4 (2.6)2-10 (1-7)2.90

Championship Game

Boise St over San Diego St

Notes

Boise St like UCF is a team that with their schedule could end up as a Group of 5 Playoff team. They would have to run the gauntlet and hope FSU reclaimed past glory (top 25 at least). As well as hoping 1-2 more of their opponents finished with 10 or 11 wins. Their chances are less than UCF, but they aren’t zero.

I expect Boise to be a top 25 team by season’s end and San Diego St to hover around the top 25 for much of the season (although not finish in it or receiving votes).

Should be a good year for the Mountain West. No NY6 bowl however. 7 bowl eligible teams.

Bowl Projections

TeamBowl Projection
Boise StLas Vegas Bowl
San Diego StIdaho Potato Bowl
Fresno StNew Mexico Bowl
Utah StArizona
HawaiiHawaii
WyomingFrisco Bowl
Air ForceArmed Forces Bowl

2019 AAC Preview

East Division

PlaceTeamWin-Share (Conf)Record (Conf)Rating
1UCF
Golden Knights
9.0 (6.1)10-2 (7-1)4.19
2Cincinnati
Bearcats
6.7 (4.9)8-4 (6-2)3.85
3Temple Owls7.0 (4.3)8-4 (5-3)3.65
3USF Bulls6.9 (4.5)7-5 (5-3)3.73
5ECU Pirates5.7 (2.9)4-8 (1-7)3.20
5UCONN Huskies4.2 (2.3)2-10 (1-7)2.97

West Division

PlaceTeamWin-Share (Conf)Record (Conf)Ratings
1Memphis Tigers7.4 (4.5)9-3 (5-3)3.76
1Houston Cougars6.0 (4.1)7-5 (5-3)3.63
3Navy Midshipmen5.5 (3.2)5-7 (4-4)3.21
4SMU Mustangs6.7 (4.4)4-8 (3-5)3.61
4Tulsa
Golden Hurricane
4.1 (2.7)5-7 (3-5)3.20
4Tulane
Green Wave
6.3 (4.1)5-7 (3-5)3.53

Championship Game

UCF over Memphis

**Memphis has tie-breaker over Houston (H2H)**

Notes

For the third straight year the Championship game is UCF v Memphis. For the third straight year UCF beats Memphis in the championship game and goes to a NY6 bowl.

UCF continues their run of dominance through the AAC. However with a tougher schedule this year they likely stumble 1-2 times. If UCF is able to run the table this year with Pitt and Stanford having good seasons, this could be a year when they are able to get into the playoffs. 13-0 Conference Champs with 2 wins over top 25 Power 5 teams is a pretty solid resume. Especially if one of the AAC conference opponents is able to get into the top 25 as well (Several could).

UCF finishes in top 25. No other team gets votes for top 25. 6 bowl teams.

Bowl Projections

TeamBowl Projections
UCFCotton Bowl (NY6)
MemphisBirmingham Bowl
CincinnatiFrisco Bowl
TempleBahamas Bowl
HoustonTart Cherry Bowl
USFCure Bowl

2019 Big Ten Preview

East Division

PlaceTeamWin-Share (Conf)Record (Conf)Rating
1Michigan
Wolverines
8.6 (5.8)9-3 (7-2)4.56
1Ohio St Buckeyes9.7 (6.7)10-2 (7-2)4.78
3Penn St
Nittany Lions
8.7 (5.9)9-3 (6-3)4.57
3Michigan St
Spartans
8.6 (5.9)9-3 (6-3)4.55
5Maryland
Terrapins
5.0 (2.4)6-6 (4-5)3.75
6Indiana Hoosiers6.1 (3.4)5-7 (2-7)3.80
7Rutgers
Scarlet Knights
4.2 (2.4)4-8 (1-8)3.50

West Division

PlaceTeamWin-Share (Conf)Record (Conf)Rating
1Wisconsin
Badgers
7.7 (5.0)9-3 (6-3)4.35
1Purdue
Boilermakers
6.6 (4.6)8-4 (6-3)4.03
3Iowa Hawkeyes7.6 (5.1)7-5 (5-4)4.21
4Nebraska
Cornhuskers
6.5 (4.3)7-5 (4-5)4.02
4Northwestern
Wildcats
6.3 (4.1)6-6 (4-5)4.04
6Minnesota
Golden Gophers
5.4 (3.4) 5-7 (3-6)3.67
7Illinois
Fighting Illini
5.6 (3.3)5-7 (2-7)3.70

Championship Game

Michigan over Wisconsin

**Michigan and Wisconsin win tie-breaker by virtue of H2H over Ohio St and Purdue**

Notes

After several years of falling short to Ohio St, Michigan finally beats them. However losing a few other games will keep them out of the playoffs, despite being Big Ten Champs (beating Wisconsin in Champ game). Think this is the year for Michigan, just not the year for the Big Ten. Ohio St drops another game (road games against Nebraska and Northwestern and games against Penn St, Wisconsin, and Michigan St. It’s not an easy schedule for first year coach Day. Purdue has a banner year, but is still a year away from really competing with the Big Boys consistently.

No playoff berth for Big Ten this year, but Michigan makes it to Rose Bowl. Ohio St to the Cotton Bowl. Both top 10/15 teams. Penn St, Michigan St, and Wisconsin as top 15/20 teams and Purdue as a top 25 team. 10 bowl teams.

Bowl Projections

TeamBowl Projection
MichiganRose Bowl (NY6)
Ohio StCotton Bowl (NY6)
Penn StHoliday Bowl
WisconsinCitrus Bowl
Michigan StOutback Bowl
PurdueTax Slayer Bowl
IowaRedBox Bowl
NebraskaNew Era Pinstripe Bowl
NorthwesternQuickLane Bowl
MarylandArmed Force Bowl

2019 Pac 12 Preview

North Division

PlaceTeamWin-Share (Conf)Record (Conf)Rating
1Washington
Huskies
9.6 (6.7)10-2 (7-2)4.72
1Oregon Ducks8.8 (6.3)9-3 (7-2)4.60
3Stanford Cardinal7.6 (5.8)8-4 (6-3)4.36
4Washington St
Cougars
5.8 (3.4)8-4 (5-4)3.83
5California
Bears
5.2 (3.2)4-8 (2-7)3.82
6Oregon State
Beavers
4.8 (2.8)3-9 (1-8)3.60

South Division

PlaceTeamWin-Share (Conf)Record (Conf)Rating
1Southern California
Trojans
7.3 (5.3)8-4 (6-3)4.37
1Utah Utes8.4 (5.8)8-4 (6-3)4.38
3Arizona St
Sun Devils
7.0 (4.8)6-6 (4-5)4.12
3UCLA Bruins5.8 (4.4)6-6 (4-5)4.04
5Arizona Wildcats4.0 (2.2)6-6 (3-6)3.54
5Colorado Buffaloes5.7 (3.6)5-7 (3-6)3.96

Championship Game

Washington over USC

**Washington and USC get tie-breakers over Oregon and Utah respectively due to H2H**

Notes

Washington repeats as Champs. This time beating USC instead of Utah in champ game. Probably one of Washington’s better teams, but Pac 12 stands to be improved this year with 5 legit top 25 type teams. Making it a tough road for Washington (or whoever the champ ends up being). Will be hard for any of them to come out with less than 2 losses. Washington is the team that could end up doing it IF Eason ends up performing to his hype.

Oregon is another team that could end up a playoff contender with Herbert staying. The key will be how their defense performs. Stanford, USC, Utah, and even Wash St are all teams that could beat Oregon or Washington. Should be an exciting year in the Pac 12.

I think Washington ends up as the 4th Playoff team. Edging out UGA and Big Ten Champ (better record than Big Ten Champ and Conference Champ over UGA). Oregon is a top 15 team, with Stanford, Utah, and USC as potential top 25 teams.

9 teams go bowling.

Bowl Projections

TeamBowl Projections
WashingtonPeach Bowl (CFP Semifinal)
OregonRose Bowl
USCAlamo Bowl
UtahHoliday Bowl
StanfordRedbox Bowl
Washington StSun Bowl
Arizona StLas Vegas Bowl
UCLACheez-It Bowl
ArizonaArizona Bowl