Week 4 Top Match-Ups

3-3 Last week. 10-8 overall. Have a few important games in the Pac12 this week, as well as a few others that may shape conference championship races.

Picks this week:

  1. Michigan 28 BYU 21
  2. Georgia Tech 24 Duke 21
  3. Tennessee 21 Florida 20
  4. TCU 45 Texas Tech 42
  5. UCLA 31 Arizona 26
  6. Oregon 31 Utah 28

Will be on Vacation next week, so there will be no picks.

Week 3 Top Match-Ups

Last week was the worst week in 3 years. Missing 4 games by a couple points, and getting robbed in a few of them (Hail Mary, bad QB play, and bad plays period to finish games).

Season total is now 7-4.

I am on a time constraint this week so there is no write-up for each game. Just the final Score prediction.


  1. Duke 24 – Northwestern 20
  2. Notre Dame 31 – Georgia Tech 28
  3. LSU 24 – Auburn 21
  4. USC 27 – Stanford 17
  5. Alabama 28 – Ole Miss 24
  6. UCLA 35 – BYU 21

Enjoy the games this week.

Simplified Football Top 15 Power Rankings

1 – Alabama 4.96

2 – Oregon 4.82

3 – Ohio State 4.81

4 – Baylor 4.80

5 – Michigan State 4.74

6 – Florida State 4.70

7 – Ole Miss 4.65

8 – Auburn 4.64

9 – USC 4.63

10 – LSU 4.62

11 – TCU 4.60

12 – TAMU 4.59

13 – Georgia 4.56

14 – UCLA 4.54

15 – Notre Dame 4.53

Week 10 Top 10

  1. Mississippi State
  2. Alabama
  3. Georgia
  4. Florida State
  5. Ole Miss
  6. TCU
  7. Ohio State
  8. Auburn
  9. Oregon
  10. Nebraska

2014 Playoff and Contract Bowl predictions

Here is the Simplified Football 2014 Contract Bowl Predictions:


Peach Bowl 

Florida Stanford

Fiesta Bowl

Oklahoma UCLA

Cotton Bowl

Houston Baylor

Orange Bowl

Clemson Auburn




2014 Playoff Predictions:

#1 Florida State v #4 Wisconsin (Sugar Bowl)

#2 Oregon v #3 Alabama (Rose Bowl)



Best of luck to ALL College Football FBS teams this year.


NCAA – Top Matchups Week 6

Jason sat out last week, Steve went 4-1 (just missing on the UCF upset).  Brings Steve to 23-5 on the season.

This week we have 2 top 25 matchups, 2 other good matchups, and 1 top 15 matchup.

This week I will also start to use the current ratings and not the pre-season ratings).


Texas Christian (4.02)  @ Oklahoma (4.43)

TCU offense (4.15) vs OU defense (4.09): This matchup is a bit misleading.  Pre-season the general consensus was that TCU would have a good offense and OU’s defense would be suspect as normal, and the ratings here seem to agree with that.  However TCU’s offense has woefully underperformed (lower half of FBS schools) and Oklahoma’s defense has performed quite well (top 25). Oklahoma does have big weakness up front as they have not generated much pass rush and have not been able to stop the run. However TCU’s Offensive Line has not blocked well either.  The difference here is in the passing game as Oklahoma has performed well against the pass (top 10) and TCU has not been able to throw the ball with any consistency.  TCU may move the ball on the ground some but Oklahoma will shut down the TCU passing game. Advantage Oklahoma.


OU offense (4.39) vs TCU defense (3.82): This is kind of like the other matchup only reversed.  OU’s offense is typically one of the better ones in the nation and TCU’s defense is the same.  However TCU’s defense was expected to take a step back this year. Indeed TCU’s defense has not be great, but it has been good.  However the OU offense has been pedestrian so far. They have looked better the last 2 weeks with a quarterback change.  Look for TCU to put pressure on Blake Bell and stop OU’s passing attack, but expect OU to be able to run the ball.  Slight Advantage to Oklahoma.


Steve: TCU will make a game of this, however the home field advantage and the OU running game will prove too much for TCU. Oklahoma 34-21


Arizona St (3.99) @ Notre Dame (3.9)

ASU offense (3.65) vs ND defense (4.14): Arizona St has had one of the better offenses this year in the nation, going against what was supposed to be one of the top defenses. Notre Dame hasn’t been bad on defense, however they have not performed to the level of their talent or what was expected thus far.  Particularly the pass defense/pass rush has been lacking.  Which is where Arizona St excels. Notre Dame will try to get their defensive line going and put pressure on Arizona St, who will try to air it out. Despite the talent disparity I will give the advantage here to Arizona St.


ND offense (4.38) vs ASU defense (3.82): Again Notre Dame has the better talent. However ND’s offense has performed well at times this year (generally against lesser teams/defenses).  Arizona’s defense has been bad this year (bottom 25% of FBS). Notre Dame should find some open running lanes as well as plenty of time for Tommy Rees to throw the ball to open receivers.  Advantage here to Notre Dame.


Steve: Both offenses should have no problem putting up points in this game. Arizona St has been the better team up to this point in the season, however having to travel to Notre Dame I will give this one to ND 34-31


Maryland (4.16) @ Florida State (5.04)

Maryland offense (3.91) vs FSU defense (5.02): Florida State has one of the most talented defenses in the nation. However they have not performed up to that level.  They are still a top 25 defense. Maryland’s offense has some playmakers and one of the better passing attacks in the nation so far. FSU has been able to force some turnovers. Look for them to be try to put pressure on the Maryland QB and force him into throwing some interceptions. Both teams have been strong in the pass game and weaker up front.  Maryland will have some success on offense, but overall FSU will win the battle. Slight Advantage to FSU in this matchup.


FSU offense (4.91) vs Maryland defense (3.63): Maryland’s defense has actually performed better than it’s offense this year and has performed like a top 25 defense. However FSU has a top 5 offense. Florida State is very balanced on offense running the ball and throwing it with equal proficiency. Maryland has been equally balanced in their defense being able to stop the run and the pass.  Maryland has been excellent in rushing the passer this year and FSU has shown some kinks in the armor up front.  Maryland will try to put pressure on FSU’s young QB Jameis Winston. In the end FSU’s talent will be too much. FSU has a big advantage here.


Steve: Florida State has started slow in every game so far.  I’d expect more of the same here, however if they get to far behind against Maryland they may not be able to come back.  Playing at home however FSU should be able to control this game. FSU 35-21


Ohio St (4.56) @ Northwestern (4.05)

OSU offense (4.8) vs Northwestern defense (3.71): Ohio St has one of the better rush offenses in the nation. This year their passing offense has also been very good. Northwestern’s defense has been very mediocre this year.  Ohio State should have no problem moving the ball and putting up points in this matchup. Advantage to Ohio State.


Northwestern offense (3.53) vs OSU defense (4.75): Northwestern’s offense has been the strength of their team thus far, where Ohio State’s has been a weakness. Northwestern should be able to move the ball in the air against Ohio State’s pass defense. Ohio State has the talent advantage but Northwestern has been good on offense so far.  I’ll give the slight advantage to Northwestern in this matchup.


Steve: This will be another high scoring affair. The key will be if Northwestern can put the ball into the endzone consistently and slow down Ohio State’s rushing attack.  I don’t think they will even though it is at home. Ohio St 38-28


Washington (4.66) @ Stanford (4.4)

Washington offense (4.21) vs Stanford defense (3.87): Washington has the talent advantage in this matchup, however both units have been good this year equal in their rankings.  Washington has been prolific at throwing the ball and pass blocking. Stanford has been good in the secondary but just average rushing the passer (a change from last years “Party in the back field” front 7). Stanford’s weakness has been up front, however Washington is only average running the ball.  This will be a good matchup, however with Washington’s pass offense and their OL, I’m going to give the slight advantage to Washington.


Stanford offense (4.22) vs Washington defense (4.32): Talent wise these 2 units are pretty equal.  Washington has had a top 10 defense up to this point in the season, Stanford has had a top 25 offense.  Washington’s weakness is stopping the run, something that Stanford has been great at in years past, but has not done very well this year (above average). Stanford has been very good at throwing the ball, but Washington has been even better at stopping the pass.  Another great matchup. Going to give the slight advantage to Stanford.


Steve: I expect Stanford to get their rushing attack on track (like last week) this week. Washington will be able to throw the ball. I think Washington shows they deserve to be at the big boy table but in the end they come up just short. Stanford 28-27

NCAA – Week 3 Top Matchups

Welcome to week 3, things are starting to get more exciting with a big upset last week and a HUGE matchup this week. This season is really starting to pickup.

Last week both Steve and Jason went 4-2 (both missing badly on the Texas game). On the season that brings Steve to 9-3 and Jason to 8-4.

This week we have some good matchups with 2 battles vs ranked teams (with the higher ranked team on the road), 2 Tough matchups with Ranked teams at home against underrated opponents, and 2 games with ranked teams on the road against tough opponents.

Vanderbilt (3.7) @ South Carolina (4.10)
Vanderbilt Offense (3.83) vs USC Defense (4.18): This will be the “easiest” test yet for the South Carolina Defense which has gone against 2 of the better offenses in the nation so far (UGA and UNC). Vanderbilt is not easy however. South Carolina should be able to control the line of scrimmage, however look for Vandy to have a good gameplan to take Clowney out of the game (something that both UNC and UGA have been able to do). Vanderbilt should be able to put up a few points and move the ball in the air, but nothing with consistency. Give the advantage to USC.

USC Offense (4.01) vs Vanderbilt Defense (3.57): USC has a decided talent advantage here, particularly on the Line of Scrimmage. USC has been able to run with power on both UGA and UNC. However Vanderbilt’s defense is better than both of those defenses and plays over their talent level. Also Vanderbilt should be able to force USC into some turnovers in the passing game, as they thrive on that. I’ll go with a Toss up in this matchup.

Steve: Vanderbilt will make it a good game to watch and keep it close, but in the end the advantage in the trenches and being at home will prove too much for Vanderbilt to overcome USC 24-17

Jason: I continue to think South Carolina has been overrated from the start, but I just don’t think Vandy is going to have enough to win on the road. South Carolina 27-20.

Tennessee (4.36) @ Oregon (4.25)
Tennessee Offense (4.55) vs Oregon Defense (4.06): Tennessee has one of the most experienced and talented Offensive lines in the nation. So far it has focused on rushing the ball, gashing Western KY. Oregon has a good defensive line, but I like Tennessee in that matchup. Tennessee’s weakness is in the passing game, which is where Oregon is even better. Tennessee will try to run the ball to keep Oregon’s offense off the field and take the loud Oregon crowd out of the game. They should have success doing it as well. Despite Oregon’s superiority at the skill positions, I’ll give the advantage to Tennessee.

Oregon Offense (4.43) vs Tennessee Defense (4.16): Everyone knows what Oregon is going to try to do. Run plays at lightspeed and run the football with their zone Read. They gashed a decent Virginia defense last week. Tennessee’s defense is no better than Virginia’s. Tennessee will try to force Oregon to throw the ball and in force turnovers, as well as try to force Oregon into some quick 3 and outs, thus allowing their Offense to get back on the field and eat up the clock. I just don’t think they will be too successful. Big Advantage here to Oregon.

Steve: Tennessee was one of my pre-season surprise picks and have thus far done nothing to think otherwise. I do think Tennessee will keep this game close and give Oregon a run for their money, but in the end the home crowd and Oregon’s offense will put up too many points and force Tennessee out of their gameplan. Oregon 42-28

Jason: Were this in Tennessee, I might have called for an upset here as I think Tennessee is underrated and Oregon might be vulnerable after playing so well last week. I’ve got Oregon winning but closer than expected: Oregon 38-31.

Mississippi (4.11) @ Texas (5.04)
Ole Miss Offense (4.0) vs Texas Defense (5.11): Texas Defense has been much maligned this past week, firing their Defensive Coordinator. They are back in Austin and against an Offense that is built more for passing than rushing so the same problems that BYU presented against them, shouldn’t be an issue here. However how their defense reacts to a new coach in mid-season , etc is a mystery. On paper Texas should dominate this matchup, but with the questionable intangibles heading into this matchup, I’ll give it a Toss up.

Texas Offense (4.97) vs Ole Miss Defense (4.22): Ole Miss is very young on defense, but very talented. They made some mistakes against Vanderbilt, but also did some very nice things. Texas offense has looked good so far, but not great and Ole Miss is far and away the best defense they have and likely WILL face all season. However how will the young stars for Ole Miss fare in DKR stadium? I will give the slight advantage to Ole Miss in this matchup.

Steve: Everything is telling me to pick Texas at home. They will bounce back, etc. But I want to pick Ole Miss because of the uncertainties around Texas. In the end the pounding that Texas gave Ole Miss last year (@ Ole Miss) stands out in my head. Going with Texas 42-38

Jason: Like Steve, I can’t forget what happened when these teams played last year at Ole Miss. Texas 38-34

Wisconsin (3.42) @ Arizona State (3.74)
Wisconsin Offense (3.45) vs ASU Defense (3.82): These teams are a pretty even matchup, particularly on the line of scrimmage. Wisconsin likes to run the ball and has a solid Offensive Line. ASU’s strength lies in their secondary. Look for ASU to load the box and try to force Wisconsin to throw the ball. Wisconsin’s offense has looked good against bad opponents this year. I will give the very slight advantage to Wisconsin because of their ability to run the ball.

ASU Offense (3.65) vs Wisconsin Defense (3.39): Again the matchup is very close on the line of scrimmage, with ASU having the advantage at the skill positions. ASU is very balanced on offense and will try to remain so. Wisconsin will likely try to take away the run first as their strength lies in their front 7. I will give the advantage here to ASU.

Steve: This is a tough game to call as both teams have played garbage opponents, looking good in every game. Neither team has been scored on as of yet. That should change relatively quick. With both teams equal in the trenches, I’ll go with the team with more speed and that is at home. Arizona St 32-28

Jason: I’m not sold on either team, but I’ve got the home team winning here. ASU 34-31

UCLA (4.22) @ Nebraska (3.83)
UCLA Offense (4.15) vs Nebraska Defense (3.95): UCLA has one of the most under valued QB’s in the nation with some nice skill positions to go with him. However Nebraska does hold an advantage on the Line of Scrimmage. Nebraska has looked sub-par on defense again this year (and both games were at home against non-AQ teams). UCLA should have a good day against this defense, Big advantage UCLA.

Nebraska Offense (3.71) vs UCLA Defense (4.3): UCLA has one of the most talented Defensive Lines in the nation, Nebraska’s Offensive Line is a far cry from the Osborne days. Nebraska’s offense revolves around Taylor Martinez. UCLA will try to contain him and force him to throw the ball. He is a dynamic playmaker though and will get some big plays as UCLA’s defense is inexperienced. In the end I will give this matchup a Toss Up.

Steve: UCLA is the better team and I think a top 10 team in the country right now. However Nebraska is not an easy place to win and having a QB like Taylor Martinez gives and team a chance. In the end UCLA will prove to much for Nebraska UCLA 42-24

Jason: At the risk of agreeing with Steve across the board, UCLA 45-31

Now for the game most CFB fans have been waiting for since last year…

Alabama (4.57) vs Texas A&M (4.01)
Alabama Offense (4.55) vs TAMU Defense (3.78): Alabama’s offense looked like garbage against a very tough Virginia Tech Defense (something we called for here at Simplified Football). TAMU’s defense has looked like garbage against bad opponents. Alabama has the decided advantage upfront and at the skill position players. Despite their poor showing in the first game Alabama should be able to run at will against Texas A&M and AJ McCarron should find plenty of open WR’s. Huge advantage Alabama.

TAMU Offense (4.25) vs Alabama Defense (4.59): Alabama’s defense stymied a good QB with wheels in Logan Thomas in game one, consider it preparation for Johnny Manziel (who is a better player than Thomas). Despite the Off-Field issues TAMU and Manziel have looked sensational this year. Expect the best Defensive Coaching staff to have come up with some new wrinkles to try and stop Manziel. Give a Toss-Up to this matchup.

Steve: Nick Saban is the master at “revenge” games, Rarely does someone beat him with the same thing twice (think Tim Tebow trying a jump pass against Bama and getting stuffed). Manziel is a gamer, but I do not expect him to have the game that he did last year. The only thing that keeps this close is the Kyle Field 12th man. Alabama 42-28

Jason: I just don’t see how this game is going to be much different here because of “revenge” factors. I called last year’s upset and still think Manziel and the TAMU offense present problems for the Bama defense, which lacks elite edge rushers and (surprisingly) lacks elite coverage players in the secondary. I think this game is still basically a coin flip, but I just can’t pull the trigger for TAMU this year due to my lack of faith in this year’s Aggie defense and the fact that Bama won the last three quarters in last year’s game. I’m taking Bama 38-31

There are a few other games you should keep an eye on such as UCF @ Penn St, Miss st @ Auburn, and Washington @ Illinois. Here’s to a great weekend for College Football Fans!