2019 AAC Preview

East Division

PlaceTeamWin-Share (Conf)Record (Conf)Rating
1UCF
Golden Knights
9.0 (6.1)10-2 (7-1)4.19
2Cincinnati
Bearcats
6.7 (4.9)8-4 (6-2)3.85
3Temple Owls7.0 (4.3)8-4 (5-3)3.65
3USF Bulls6.9 (4.5)7-5 (5-3)3.73
5ECU Pirates5.7 (2.9)4-8 (1-7)3.20
5UCONN Huskies4.2 (2.3)2-10 (1-7)2.97

West Division

PlaceTeamWin-Share (Conf)Record (Conf)Ratings
1Memphis Tigers7.4 (4.5)9-3 (5-3)3.76
1Houston Cougars6.0 (4.1)7-5 (5-3)3.63
3Navy Midshipmen5.5 (3.2)5-7 (4-4)3.21
4SMU Mustangs6.7 (4.4)4-8 (3-5)3.61
4Tulsa
Golden Hurricane
4.1 (2.7)5-7 (3-5)3.20
4Tulane
Green Wave
6.3 (4.1)5-7 (3-5)3.53

Championship Game

UCF over Memphis

**Memphis has tie-breaker over Houston (H2H)**

Notes

For the third straight year the Championship game is UCF v Memphis. For the third straight year UCF beats Memphis in the championship game and goes to a NY6 bowl.

UCF continues their run of dominance through the AAC. However with a tougher schedule this year they likely stumble 1-2 times. If UCF is able to run the table this year with Pitt and Stanford having good seasons, this could be a year when they are able to get into the playoffs. 13-0 Conference Champs with 2 wins over top 25 Power 5 teams is a pretty solid resume. Especially if one of the AAC conference opponents is able to get into the top 25 as well (Several could).

UCF finishes in top 25. No other team gets votes for top 25. 6 bowl teams.

Bowl Projections

TeamBowl Projections
UCFCotton Bowl (NY6)
MemphisBirmingham Bowl
CincinnatiFrisco Bowl
TempleBahamas Bowl
HoustonTart Cherry Bowl
USFCure Bowl

Simplified Football New Years Day Bowl Predictions

We have posted the Top 25 Rankings, and each conference prediction.  Here is the College Football Playoff and New Years 6 bowl projections:

Playoffs:

Orange Bowl – #1 Clemson v #4 Washington

Cotton Bowl – #2 Alabama v #3 Penn State

 

New Years Day Bowls:

Rose Bowl – #8 Ohio St v #9 Stanford

Peach Bowl – #11 UCF v # 12 FSU

Fiesta Bowl – #7 Auburn v #10 Wisconsin

Sugar Bowl – #5 Oklahoma v #6 Georgia

 

National Champ (Bay Area, CA) – Clemson v Alabama

National Champ = Clemson

Group of 5 Conferences Preview and Predictions

2017 was probably the best team the Group of 5 has put forth in the Playoff Era. UCF went undefeated and beat Top 10 Auburn in a bowl game.  Still was unable to come close to the playoff.  There is a healthy chance that UCF could be even better in 2018, but with a much more difficult schedule.  If they are able to run the table again they should be looking at a potential playoff spot. Other schools who could fight for that Group of 5 New Years Bowl slot are Memphis, FAU, Boise St, San Diego St, Northern Illinois, and maybe a few others.

 

American Predictions:

East

Team – Record (Conf)  /  Win-Shares (Conf)  /  Rating

  1. Central Florida – 11-1 (7-1)  /  8.72 (5.82)  /  4.29
  2. South Florida – 8-4 (6-2)  /  7.54 (4.73)  /  3.86
  3. Temple – 6-6 (4-4)  /  6.04 (3.91)  /  3.53
  4. ECU – 5-7 (3-5)  /  5.83 (3.58)  /  3.41
  5. Cincinnati – 5-7 (3-5)  /  5.13 (3.18)  /  3.21
  6. UCONN – 4-8 (2-6)  /  4.05 (2.35)  /  2.88

West

Team – Record (Conf)  /  Win-Shares (Conf)  /  Rating

  1. Memphis – 9-3 (6-2)  /  8.19 (5.09)  /  4.12
  2. Houston – 8-4 (5-3)  /  7.84 (5.04)  /  3.86
  3. Navy – 7-5 (4-4)  /  5.71 (3.12)  /  3.34
  4. SMU – 6-6 (4-4)  /  6.5 (3.40)  /  3.70
  5. Tulsa – 5-7 (3-5)  /  5.82 (3.97)  /  3.97
  6. Tulane – 2-10 (1-7)  /  4.43 (2.87)  /  3.20

Memphis and UCF meet again in the AAC championship game. UCF wins the AAC and repeats as the Group of 5 representative in the New Years 6 bowls. Memphis finishes as a borderline top 25 team. 7 teams are bowl eligible.

 

 

MWC Predictions:

Mountain

Team – Record (Conf)  /  Win-Shares (Conf)  /  Rating

  1. Boise State – 9-3 (6-2)  /  8.46 (5.98)  /  4.05
  2. Wyoming – 8-4 (6-2)  /  6.92 (4.72)  /  3.46
  3. Utah St – 7-5 (5-3)  /  6.83 (4.63)  /  3.43
  4. Colorado St – 7-5 (5-3)  /  6.40 (4.55)  /  3.41
  5. Air Force – 4-8 (3-5)  /  5.05 (3.05)  /  3.05
  6. New Mexico – 5-7 (2-6)  /  4.90 (2.75)  /  2.83

West

Team – Record (Conf)  /  Win-Shares (Conf)  /  Rating

  1. San Diego St – 8-4 (6-2)  /  7.30 (5.10)  /  3.59
  2. Fresno St – 7-5 (5-3)  /  6.42 (4.45)  /  3.43
  3. Nevada – 7-5 (5-3)  /  5.82 (3.77)  /  3.18
  4. UNLV – 5-7 (3-5)  /  5.34 (3.44)  /  2.99
  5. San Jose St– 3-9 (1-7 )  /  4.65 (3.05)  /  2.64
  6. Hawaii – 3-9 (1-7 ) /  4.84 (2.51)  /  2.57

Boise St against San Diego St in the MWC Championship game.  Boise St winds up the MWC champions.  MWC ends up with 7 Bowl Eligible teams.

 

 

 

 

CUSA Predictions:

East

Team – Record (Conf)  /  Win-Shares (Conf)  /  Rating

  1. FAU – 9-3 (7-1)  /  8.38 (5.83)  /  4.08
  2. Marshall – 8-4 (6-2)  / 6.70 (4.65)  /  3.53
  3. MTSU – 6-6 (5-3)  /  5.90 (4.35)  /  3.60
  4. FIU – 6-6 (5-3)  / 6.36 (4.16)  /  3.26
  5. Old Dominion – 6-6 (4-4)  /  6.40 (4.10)  /  3.24
  6. Charlotte – 6-6 (3-5)  /  5.67 (3.52)  /  3.32
  7. WKU – 3-9 (1-7)  /  4.10 (2.75)  /  2.52

West

Team – Record (Conf)  /  Win-Shares (Conf)  /  Rating

  1. UAB – 9-3 (6-2)  /  7.98 (5.38)  /  3.63
  2. Southern Miss – 7-5 (5-3)  /  5.90 (4.35)  /  3.17
  3. North Texas – 5-7 (3-5)  /  6.15 (4.00)  /  3.27
  4. UTSA – 4-8 (3-5)  /  4.36 (3.41)  /  2.91
  5. UTEP – 4-8 (3-5)  /  5.50 (3.50)  /  2.89
  6. Rice – 4-8 (3-5)  /  4.62 (2.95)  /  2.70
  7. La Tech – 4-8 (2-6)  /  4.97 (3.20)  /  2.97

FAU runs through the Conference USA and almost pulls off a major upset in Norman. They win against UAB in the CUSA championship game and crack the top 25 poll. 7 teams from CUSA gain bowl eligibility.

 

 

 

MAC Predictions:

East

Team – Record (Conf)  /  Win-Shares (Conf)  /  Rating

  1. Miami (Oh) – 6-6 (5-3)  /  6.47 (4.60)  /  3.36
  2. Akron – 6-6 (5-3)  /  5.81 (4.36)  /  3.33
  3. Ohio – 6-6 (4-4)  /  6.02 (3.75)  /  3.01
  4. Buffalo – 5-7 (3-5)  /  5.84 (3.29)  /  3.08
  5. Bowling Green – 4-8 (3-5)  /  4.50 (3.20)  /  2.77
  6. Kent State – 3-9 (2-6)  /  5.00 (3.75)  /  2.86

West

Team – Record (Conf)  /  Win-Shares (Conf)  /  Rating

  1. Northern Ill – 9-3 (6-2)  /  6.05 (4.92)  /  3.64
  2. Western Mich – 8-4 (6-2)  /  6.91 (4.73)  /  3.35
  3. Central Mich – 6-6 (5-3)  /  6.10 (4.35)  /  3.36
  4. Toledo – 7-5 (5-3)  /  6.38 (4.25)  /  3.38
  5. East Mich – 5-7 (3-5)  /  5.55 (3.60)  /  3.06
  6. Ball St – 3-9 (2-6)  /  4.35 (2.90)  /  2.76

Northern Illinois over Miami (oh) in the MAC championship game.  6 teams gain bowl eligibility.

 

Sun Belt Predictions:

East

Team – Record (Conf)  /  Win-Shares (Conf)  /  Rating

  1. Troy – 10-2 (7-1) / 8.02 (5.70) / 3.72
  2. Appalachian St – 8-4 (6-2) / 7.35 (5.20) / 3.50
  3. Coastal Carolina – 4-8 (3-5) / 5.1 (3.40) / 2.83
  4. Georgia State – 4-8 (3-5) / 4.35 (2.90) / 2.69
  5. Georgia Southern – 4-8 (2-6) / 6.45 (4.15) / 3.13

West

Team – Record (Conf)  /  Win-Shares (Conf)  /  Rating

  1. Arkansas St – 8-4 (6-2) / 6.97 (4.82) / 3.32
  2. La-Monroe – 6-6 (5-3) / 6.06 (4.41) / 3.17
  3. South Alabama – 5-7 (4-4) / 5.13 (3.40) / 2.86
  4. Louisiana – 5-7 (3-5) / 4.97 (3.37) / 2.74
  5. Texas St – 4-8 (2-6) / 4.55 (2.70) / 2.53

In the inaugural Sun Belt Championship game Troy over Arkansas St.  Troy finishes in the top 25. Sun Belt finishes with 4 Bowl Eligible teams.

 

 

Independent Predictions:

Team – Record  /  Win-Shares   /  Rating

  1. Notre Dame – 8-4 / 7.66 / 4.40
  2. Army – 7-5 / 6.71 / 3.19
  3. BYU – 6-6 / 6.60 / 3.74
  4. UMASS – 3-9 / 4.28 / 2.90
  5. New Mexico St – 3-9 / 4.50 / 2.80
  6. Liberty – 3-9 / 4.65 / 2.75

3 independent teams wind up Bowl eligible.  Notre Dame cracks the top 25.

2017 American Conference Preview

For much of last year it appeared as if the American Conference would have its 2nd straight appearance in a contract bowl. Until Houston crumpled down the stretch. The American Conference probably has the 4  best Group of 5 teams in the nation and 2 of them looked primed to be the  Group of 5 representative in the Contract bowls. As stated in the Season preview the American conference looks very strong this year and well above the rest of the Group of 5. They have quite a few games that should garner lots of NFL scouts and national attention.

 

For each Conference we will have the Simplified Football predictions (record) with the Projected Win-Shares and rating of each team next to it. We will also have Bowl Projections for each conference.

 

American Predictions:

East

Team – Record (Conf)  /  Win-Shares (Conf)  /  Rating

  1. South Florida – 10-2 (6-2)  /  8.74 (5.42)  /  4.09
  2. Central Florida – 8-4 (6-2)  /  7.91 (5.01)  /  3.89
  3. ECU – 6-6 (4-4)  /  6.26 (2.82)  /  3.77
  4. Cincinnati – 5-7 (3-5)  /  5.32 (3.48)  /  3.31
  5. UCONN – 4-8 (3-5)  /  5.32 (3.48)  /  3.43
  6. Temple – 5-7 (2-6)  /  4.77 (2.82)  /  3.25

West

Team – Record (Conf)  /  Win-Shares (Conf)  /  Rating

  1. Houston – 10-2 (6-2)  /  8.79 (5.76)  /  4.29
  2. Tulsa – 7-5 (5-3)  /  5.95 (3.8)  /  3.67
  3. Memphis – 7-5 (4-4)  /  7-37 (4.57)  /  4.03
  4. Navy – 7-5 (4-4)  /  4.73 (3.06)  /  3.27
  5. SMU – 6-6 (3-5)  /  6.29 (3.71)  /  3.44
  6. Tulane – 4-8 (2-6)  /  4.53 (2.68)  /  3.09

 

Houston wins the West out-right and USF wins the East on a tie-break (beating UCF head to head).

 

Championship game – USF beats Houston in the Championship game and is the highest ranked Group of 5 team.

 

 

That makes 8 bowl teams for the AAC

 

Peach Bowl – USF

Cure Bowl – Memphis

Boca Raton Bowl – UCF

Birmingham Bowl – Houston

Hawaii Bowl – Tulsa

Frisco Bowl – SMU

Military Bowl – Navy

St Petersburg Bowl – ECU

AAC Preview and Predictions

For each of the conference Predictions I will put in both the Predicted Finish according to Win-Shares, as well as my own personal predictions (which are largely very similar).

 

AAC Win-Shares

West

 

Houston – 7.97 (5.27)

Tulsa – 5.81 (3.62)

Navy – 5.57 (3.6)

Memphis – 5.43 (3.41)

Tulane – 5.42 (3.22)

Southern Methodist – 4.77 (3.1)

 

East

 

South Florida – 7.66 (5.13)

Cincinnati – 7.67 (4.82)

Central Florida – 6.84 (4.48)

Temple – 6.5 (3.84)

East Carolina – 5.47 (3.78)

Connecticut – 5.92 (3.73)

 

USF over Houston in the AAC championship.

 

 

Simplified Football Predictions

West

 

Houston = 10-2 (7-1)

Navy = 7-5 (4-4)

Memphis = 6-6 (4-4)

Tulsa = 6-6 (3-5)

SMU = 4-8 (2-6)

Tulane = 3-9 (1-7)

 

East

 

Cincinnati = 8-4 (6-2)

USF = 8-4 (6-2)

UCF = 7-5 (4-4)

UCONN = 6-6 (4-4)

ECU = 5-7 (4-4)

Temple = 6-6 (3-5)

 

Houston over Cincinnati in AAC Championship game.

 

 

That is 9 bowl teams for the AAC

Cotton Bowl – Houston

Armed Forces Bowl – Navy

Birmingham Bowl – USF

Military Bowl – Cincinnati

St Petersburg Bowl – UCF

Cure Bowl – UCONN

Boca Raton Bowl – Memphis

Miami Beach Bowl – Tulsa

Bahamas Bowl – Temple

 

Group of 5 Notable Win Shares

Here are the teams of note from the Group of 5 and their Win Shares:

American:

Champion: Cincinnati 7.39 (4.89)

Mountain West:

West Champion: San Deigo St 6.97 (4.97)

Mountain Champion: Boise St 9.22 (6.71)

Boise St in Championship over San Deigo St with .67 Win Share.

NOTE: With their strongest team in the last few years and 2 Power 5 opponents on their schedule (both winnable) We could see Boise St crash the Playoff Party if they run the table. Long-Shot but better chance than anyone last year.

Conference USA:

East Champion: Marshall 8.83 (5.95)

West Champion: Louisiana Tech 8.34 (5.85)

Marshall in Championship over La Tech with .55 Win Share

Mid-American:

East Champion: Akron 6.47 (4.7)

West Champion: Western Michigan 6.56 (4.93)

Western Michigan over Akron in Championship with .55 Win Share

Sun Belt:

Champion: Arkansas St 7.04 (5.26)

Independents:

Notre Dame 8.8

BYU 7.29

2014 Group of 5 and Independent Preview

Last year Fresno State came very close to getting into the BCS.  This year everything changes for the Group of 5.  The American Conference goes from being an automatic qualifier (IE being recognized with the top conferences) to being recognized with the Group of 5 conferences.  The highest ranked team from here on out gets to one of the big bowls and a nice pay-day. Of course it is possible that an undefeated group of 5 team can make it to the playoffs, but they will have to win convincingly and/or beat a Power 5 school.

This year the top contenders for a playoff spot are Marshall, Boise St, UCF, Houston, and Cincinnati. Marshall has the easiest schedule, but no marquee matchups, so they have the best chance of being undefeated, but they will need to win big in almost every game.  Boise State has a game against Ole Miss to start the season, if they can win that game (provided Ole Miss does well in the SEC) and win convincingly against the rest of their schedule, they will have a good argument.  UCF has Penn State, Missouri and BYU, if they can somehow win 2 of 3 against that and win the rest, they are one team that has any kind of argument with 1 loss (still not a great one). Houston has BYU, so they will need to win convincingly against every opponent and win that game. Cincinnati has Ohio St and Miami (Fl), they like UCF could also have a weak argument for getting in with 1 loss if they win the rest big.  Of course a loss to any other team than one that finishes in the top 5, knocks them out.  With that said I think the best chance lies with Marshall going undefeated.

 

Here is a look at the top teams from each conference that should compete for the conference Title, as well as our picks to win each conference.

 

American Conference

HOUSTON:

Overall Rating: 3.91

AAC Win Share: 5.92 (overall 9.01)

CINCINNATI:

Overall Rating: 3.88

AAC Win Share: 5.86 (overall 8.11)

UCF:

Overall Rating: 3.61

AAC Win Share: 5.29 (overall 7.31)

 

Our Pick for Conference Champion is Houston, winning the tie-breaker over UCF and Cincinnati, All 3 teams get left out of Contract Bowls and Playoff.

 

Mountain West Conference

BOISE STATE:

Overall Rating: 4.05

MWC Win Share: 6.45 (overall 8.98)

UTAH STATE:

Overall Rating: 3.44

MWC Win Share: 5.09 (overall 7.61)

FRESNO STATE:

Overall Rating: 3.39

MWC Win Share: 4.90 (overall 6.39)

SAN DIEGO STATE:

Overall Rating: 3.26

MWC Win Share: 4.51 (overall 6.53)

 

We have Boise State facing off against Fresno State in the MWC championship game, with Boise winning.  Boise will contend with Marshall for the Contract bowl automatic spot, but fall short of the Playoffs.

 

 

Conference USA

MARSHALL:

Overall Rating: 3.63

CUSA Win Share: 5.85 (overall 9.42)

MIDDLE TENNESSEE STATE:

Overall Rating: 3.32

CUSA Win Share: 5.26 (overall 7.40)

RICE:

Overall Rating: 3.43

CUSA Win Share: 5.36 (overall 6.97)

UTSA:

Overall Rating: 3.37

CUSA Win Share: 5.23 (overall 6.71)

NORTH TEXAS:

Overall Rating: 3.34

CUSA Win Share: 4.87 (overall 6.66)

 

We have Marshall beating Rice in the CUSA Championship game, with Marshall winning and contending with Boise St for the Contract Bowl automatic spot, but missing the playoffs as they will not go undefeated.

 

 

Mid-American Conference

BOWLING GREEN:

Overall Rating: 3.44

MAC Win Share: 6.02 (overall 8.37)

BUFFALO:

Overall Rating: 3.30

MAC Win Share: 5.10 (overall 7.55)

NORTHERN ILLINOIS:

Overall Rating: 3.54

MAC Win Share: 6.30 (overall 8.40)

TOLEDO:

Overall Rating: 3.34

MAC Win Share: 5.09 (overall 6.82)

 

We have Northern Illinois facing off against Bowling Green for the MAC Championship, with NIU winning. However they will not make a run at a big bowl or the playoffs.

 

 

Sun Belt

USA:

Overall Rating: 3.26

Sun Belt Win Share: 5.21 (overall 6.31)

LOUISIANA LAFAYETTE:

Overall Rating: 3.22

Sun Belt Win Share: 5.55 (overall 7.28)

 

We have Louisiana winning the Sun Belt Championship, but falling short of the big bowls and playoffs.

 

 

Independents

NOTRE DAME:

Overall Rating: 4.35

Win Share: 7.21

BRIGHAM YOUNG:

Overall Rating: 4.05

Win Share: 8.48

NAVY:

Overall Rating: 3.48

Win Share: 7.76

 

Despite all of these teams (and potentially Army too) making a bowl game, none of them will come close to competing for a playoff spot.

 

Top 10 offenses:

BYU

Navy

Cincinnati

Notre Dame

Marshall

Toledo

UCF
Louisiana

Houston

Air Force

 

 

Top 10 Defenses:

Boise State

Notre Dame

BYU

Utah State

Colorado State

UCF
Houston

Cincinnati

Middle Tenn St

Rice