Week 1 Top Match-ups

Last year I finished the season 46-23 on my predictions, that is 67% correct. I will look to improve on that this year. This week there is only 1 match-up between ranked teams, however there are several others that are good match-ups and could figure into the Playoff picture (and several more that do not make the top 6).

 

  1. Washington at Boise St
    • This figures to be one of Boise States most talented teams ever, on the other side Washington has lost a lot of talent over the last few years. Coach Peterson has his work cut out for him there. Despite being a Group of 5 school Boise State is actually the more talented team. Add that to Boise State being at home and I am going with Boise State in this game.
    • Boise State 32 – Washington 24
  2. Louisville vs Auburn
    • Many expect Auburn to have a very explosive offense this season, despite many of their best on offense being gone. They certainly have the talent to reload and not rebuild. Louisville is rebuilding in Coach Petrino’s image and it will be a project. However they do have some talent (some transferred in) on defense and at least in the first half should be able to slow down Auburn’s attack. Auburn’s defense which has been atrocious in the last few years, has one of the top Defensive Coordinators now, and has recruited very well on that side of the ball.  Louisville does not have many play-makers on offense. Auburn will likely give up a few plays on mistakes and I like this game to be close through the first half. Auburn pulls away in the 4th though.
    • Auburn 34 – Louisville 21
  3. Arizona St at Texas A&M
    • Arizona State is a trendy pick to win the Pac 12 and be a playoff team to some experts. I don’t see it. I have them finishing 4th in the Pac 12 South (behind USC, UCLA, and Arizona). Texas A&M I feel could challenge in the SEC if they continue to improve on defense.  Arizona State was torched at times on defense last year, I see that happening again this year and in this game. Expecting a pretty high scoring game in this one. As both offenses out match the defenses. But with the 12th man behind them I have Texas A&M shocking Arizona State.
    • Texas A&M 45 – Arizona State 35
  4. Texas at Notre Dame
    • This Notre Dame team will surprise a lot of people. They are as talented as the squad that took them to the National Championship game a few years ago. Texas is still in the rebuilding process, but they do have a defense that was pretty good last year and should improve even more this year. The difference in this game however will be Texas’ lack of a QB/offense. After this game Notre Dame fans will be clamoring for Everett Golson at QB as Zaire will likely struggle some against a good Texas defense. However being at home, with more weapons and a better QB and more talent gives Notre Dame the advantage still.
    • Notre Dame 28 – Texas 21
  5. Wisconsin vs Alabama
    • Alabama looks as though they are going to have another juggernaut defense and a power running game, however their QB situation is very unsettled and has lots of question marks. Wisconsin is breaking in a new coach, in previous years it has taken them at least half of the season to start to gel and work together with new coaches, although they adjust pretty quickly. The biggest problem in this game is the match-up for Wisconsin. Wisconsin’s strength (it’s power running game) is exactly what Alabama excels at stopping. I don’t expect Wisconsin to have much room to run in this game and relying on Joel Stave to move the ball against Alabama is not a recipe for success. However Alabama’s offense will keep Wisconsin in the game. Look for a lot of running and a low scoring affair.
    • Alabama 28 – Wisconsin 17
  6. Ohio State at Virginia Tech
    • The game Buckeye fans and players alike have been waiting for all summer. REVENGE. Virginia Tech looked like they had derailed Ohio State’s plans at a National Championship run last year, obviously that proved to not be true as they ran the table and won the National Championship. However i’m sure it still stings in Columbus that Tech upset them at home last year. This year they have to travel to Blacksburg to face what is potentially one of the best defenses in the nation. They have a very solid front 7 that uses a lot of blitz packages to keep offenses on their heels, and perhaps the best Cornerback combo in the nation. Many expect Ohio State to run it all over Virginia Tech. We do not think that will happen, especially with some key WR’s out for Ohio State.  On the other side of the ball is where Virginia Tech has been lacking recently, and this year should be no better. They have not been able to find any consistency on offense in several years. The one thing that will be to their advantage is Ohio State is without perhaps the best defensive player in the nation in Joey Bosa for this game. In the end I expect Ohio State to pull this game out as I just don’t think Virginia Tech will be able to put enough points on the board.
    • Ohio State 24 – Virginia Tech 17

SEC Win Shares

Due to time constraints instead of full previews we will only be posting Win Shares for the Power 5 conferences and the best Group of 5 teams.

Here are the SEC Win Shares:

WEST Total (SEC)

Alabama 8.8 (5.02)

TAMU 8.33 (4.56)

Ole Miss 8.51 (4.53)

Auburn 8.21 (4.46)

LSU 8.16 (4.36)

Arkansas 7.56 (3.86)

Miss State 6.86 (3.27)

EAST

Georgia 8.46 (4.88)

Tennessee 8.29 (4.6)

Florida 7.29 (4.01)

Missouri 6.82 (3.71)

South Carolina 5.99 (3.27)

Kentucky 6.35 (2.93)

Vanderbilt 5.24 (2.42)

 

That puts Georgia and Alabama in the SEC Championship game. With Alabama having a Win Share in that game of .61.

So Alabama is the pick for the SEC.

Notes: This is probably the strongest year for the SEC with several teams that are VERY good and possibly ELITE. We see a lot of the top teams knocking each other off and despite it being the strongest SEC, but possibly having no teams in the Playoffs as no one is better than 10-2 and possibly 9-3. Also potentially having 11 teams 7-5 and better and 8 teams 8-4 or better.  That is VERY strong. As the Win Shares suggest perhaps 13 Bowl Eligible teams!

2014 SEC Preview

The SEC had an unprecedented run of 7 straight National Championship runs come to an end last year as Auburn fell to Florida State 34-31.  Last year was also an uncharacteristic year for the SEC as they were more of an offensive loaded conference.  This year you will see the SEC go back to what it is known for (Good defense), as the offenses once again (outside of a couple of teams) will take a back seat to the SEC defenses. Last year you saw a few of the middle of the pack SEC teams step it up a notch and added more balance, as the SEC top tier teams were knocked back a little bit.  We think you will see more of the same this year, as there will be a larger “middle of the pack” group, however we do see Auburn and Alabama as pulling away from the pack SLIGHTLY, and being a bit better than the rest. However there will be little difference between 3-10. We also feel there will be improved at the bottom as Arkansas, and Kentucky look to improve this year. There should be a lot of good football games (like normal) in the SEC.

 

Without any more delay here is the SEC Preview:

West

ALABAMA:

Overall Rating – 4.94

SEC Win Share – 5.99 (Total of 9.89)

AUBURN:

Overall Rating – 4.91

SEC Win Share – 5.56 (Total of 9.26)

OLE MISS:

Overall Rating – 4.37

SEC Win Share – 4.52 (Total of 8.07)

LSU:

Overall Rating – 4.34

SEC Win Share – 4.06 (Total of 7.46)

TEXAS A&M:

Overall Rating – 4.27

SEC Win Share – 3.78 (Total of 7.43)

MISSISSIPPI ST:

Overall Rating – 4.06

SEC Win Share – 3.52 (Total of 7.3)

ARKANSAS:

Overall Rating – 3.86

SEC Win Share – 2.44 (Total of 5.54)

East

FLORIDA:

Overall Rating – 4.36

SEC Win Share – 5.20 (Total of 8.30)

GEORGIA:

Overall Rating – 4.28

SEC Win Share – 4.69 (Total of 8.02)

SOUTH CAROLINA:

Overall Rating – 4.25

ACC Win Share – 4.49 (Total of 7.92)

MISSOURI:

Overall Rating – 4.08

SEC Win Share – 4.25 (Total of 7.39)

TENNESSEE:

Overall Rating – 3.75

SEC Win Share – 2.94 (Total of 5.69)

VANDERBILT:

Overall Rating – 3.53

SEC Win Share – 2.43 (Total of 5.93)

KENTUCKY:

Overall Rating – 3.46

SEC Win Share – 2.13(Total of 5.00)

 

We have Alabama playing Florida in Atlanta for the SEC championship, with Alabama winning that game.

 

Top 5 Offenses:

Auburn

South Carolina

Alabama

Texas A&M

Georgia

Top 5 Defenses:

Alabama

Ole Miss

Mississippi St

Florida

Auburn

Storylines to watch for:

  1. How much will Auburn’s defense improve, and will it be enough to put them in the Title game again?
  2. Which of the new Quarterbacks in the conference will step up and lead their team?
  3. Who will survive the East, as 4 teams look to compete for the East division crown.
  4. Will Alabama’s defense get back to their suffocating ways of old?
  5. How will Vanderbilt fare with Head Coach Franklin leaving for B1G country?
  6. Will the Mississippi schools finally live up to the hype?
  7. Will LSU finally take a real fall after losing so many underclassmen the last few years to the draft?

SEC – 2013 SF Power Ratings

Here are the 2013 Simplified Football Power Ratings for the SEC:

West
Alabama – 4.57
LSU – 4.40
Ole Miss – 4.11
Auburn – 4.10
Texas A&M – 4.01
Mississippi St – 3.85
Arkansas – 3.85

East
Georgia – 4.8
Florida – 4.8
Tennessee – 4.36
Missouri – 4.10
South Carolina – 4.10
Vanderbilt – 3.70
Kentucky – 3.64

As you can see there are more Elite and 2nd tier teams in the SEC than there are in the ACC. Overall a much stronger conference. The ACC does have more experience than the SEC does, SEC just has a LOT more talent.