Week 8 Preview

Last week was a good week for me ATS, but a pretty bad one for the Formula.  I continue to inch toward 50% ATS and the Formula has fallen below 50%.  Straight up was another good week, although the worst week yet for both.

 

Straight up (Big-Games):

Me = 33-15 (68.8%)

Formula = 32-16 (66.7%)

 

ATS (Big Games):

Me = 24-21 (53.3%)

Formula = 24-23 (51.1%)

 

Straight up (all-Games):

Me = 257-101 (71.8%)

Formula = 269-89 (75.1%)

 

ATS:

Me = 169-176 (49.0%)

Formula = 169-175 (49.1%)

 

My Picks of the week ATS:

17-13 (56.7%) on the year.

 

Simplified Football Top 15:

  1. Alabama
  2. Clemson
  3. Ohio St
  4. Georgia
  5. Notre Dame
  6. Oklahoma
  7. LSU
  8. Michigan
  9. Penn St
  10. Florida
  11. UCF
  12. Texas
  13. Kentucky
  14. Mississippi St
  15. Washington

 

Playoff Match-ups as of now (taking into account future opponents):

1-Alabama v Notre Dame

2-Ohio St v Clemson

 

Playoff Front-runners (teams who control their own destiny):

Alabama, Georgia, Ohio St, Clemson, Notre Dame, Oklahoma, Texas, LSU, Michigan, & NC State.

 

Playoff Outsiders (Still can make it but need help):

Florida, UCF, Oregon, Kentucky, USF, Colorado, West Virginia and Cincinnati.

 

Big Games:

  1. 8 Michigan (-7.5) @ Michigan St – Rivalry game here.  They have split the last 2 years with Mich St winning last year and Michigan winning the year before. Typically a close game.  Michigan St is coming off of a strong win against Penn St and is riding high.  Michigan should control this game. Michigan St will need to keep this very low scoring to have a chance. Will need to force Shea Patterson into several turnovers.
    1. My Pick: Mich 24 – MSU 14 (Mich -7.5)
    2. Formula: Mich SU (Mich -7.5)
  2. 6 Oklahoma (-8) @ TCU – Oklahoma has beaten TCU the last 2 years. TCU has had trouble slowing down the Oklahoma offense (who doesn’t).  TCU’s offense this year has been pretty bad. If they can’t find a way to slow down Oklahoma then it will be a long day for TCU.
    1. My Pick: OU 42 – TCU 28 (OU -8)
    2. Formula: OU SU (OU -8)
  3. 17 North Carolina St @ 2 Clemson (-17.5) – Clemson has narrowly escaped NC St Upset bids the last 2 years.  I don’t think Clemson will struggle as much this year, but I don’t see them covering. NC State will need to have a prolific day throwing the ball (which is Clemson’s one weakness their pass defense). But Clemson’s offense under Freshman Trevor Lawrence and the pressure from the Clemson defensive front will end up being too much for NC St.
    1. My Pick: Clemson 35 – NC ST 24 (NCSU +17.5)
    2. Formula: Clem SU (Clem -17.5)
  4. 14 Mississippi St @ 7 LSU (-7) – Miss St easily handled LSU last year. But the last time they were in Death Valley LSU squeaked out a win.  I think this game will be closer to the last meeting in Death Valley. I think Miss St may be the better team, but being at home see’s LSU sneak away with a hard fought win.
    1. My Pick: LSU 21 – MSU 17 (MSU +7)
    2. Formula: LSU SU (PUSH)
  5. 18 Oregon at Washington St (-2.5) – Washington St has won the last 3 match-ups against Oregon, including the last time in Wash St.  This is the first time Gameday will be at Washington St, so there should be a very rowdy and enthusiastic crowd. The last 2 games between the 2 have not even been very close.  I’m not sold on Oregon yet. They have some holes, but Herbert is very good. Both offenses control this game.
    1. My Pick: WSU 35 – Oregon 31 (WSU -2.5)
    2. Formula: Oregon SU (Oreg +2.5)
  6. North Texas at UAB (-1.5) – This is the biggest Group of 5 game. Both teams have 1 loss and have outside chances at making a NY6 bowl (not very likely). North Texas got the upper hand last year beating UAB by a FG in Texas.  UAB has been playing very good the last few weeks and is gaining momentum.  I think they are one of the better Group of 5 teams at the moment. Should be a very close game.
    1. My Pick: UAB 35 – NT 33 (UAB -1.5)
    2. Formula: NT SU (NT +1.5)

 

The Rest:

  1. Georgia St @ Arkansas St (-14.5)
    1. My Pick: Ark St SU (GSU +14.5)
    2. Formula: ASU SU (GSU +14.5)
  2. Stanford (-2.5) @ Arizona St
    1. My Pick: Stan SU (Stan -2.5)
    2. Formula: Stan SU (Stan -2.5)
  3. Colorado St @ Boise St (-23.5)
    1. My Pick: BSU SU (BSU -23.5)
    2. Formula: BSU SU (CSU +23.5)
  4. Air Force (-11) @ UNLV
    1. My Pick: AFA SU (UNLV +11)
    2. Formula: AFA SU (UNLV +11)
  5. Northwestern (-20.5) @ Rutgers
    1. My Pick: NW SU (NW -20.5)
    2. Formula: NW SU (Rut +20.5)
  6. Cincinnati @ Temple (-3.5)
    1. My Pick: Temp SU (Temp -3.5)
    2. Formula: Cinci SU (Cinci +3.5)
  7. Maryland @ Iowa (-9)
    1. My Pick: Iowa SU (Iowa -9)
    2. Formula: Iowa SU (MD +9)
  8. Illinois @ Wisconsin (-25)
    1. My Pick: Wis SU (Wisc -25)
    2. Formula: Wis SU (Ill +25)
  9. Buffalo (-1) @ Toledo
    1. My Pick: Tol SU (Tol +1)
    2. Formula: Buff SU (Buff -1)
  10. Tulsa @ Arkansas (-7.5)
    1. My Pick: Ark SU (Ark -7.5)
    2. Formula: Ark SU (Tul +7.5)
  11. Auburn (-3.5) @ Ole Miss
    1. My Pick: Ole Miss SU (Ole Miss +3.5)
    2. Formula: Aub SU (Aub -3.5)
  12. Miami (oh) @ Army (-7.5)
    1. My Pick: Army SU (Army -7.5)
    2. Formula: Army SU (Moh +7.5)
  13. UNC @ Syracuse (-8.5)
    1. My Pick: Cuse SU (Cuse -8.5)
    2. Formula: Cuse SU (Cuse -8.5)
  14. Virginia @ Duke (-7.5)
    1. My Pick: Duke SU (UVA +7.5)
    2. Formula: Duke SU (UVA +7.5)
  15. Bowling Green @ Ohio (-16.5)
    1. My Pick: Ohio SU (Ohio -16.5)
    2. Formula: Ohio SU (BGU +16.5)
  16. Utah St (-15) @ Wyoming
    1. My Pick: USU SU (Wyoming +15)
    2. Formula: USU SU (USU -15)
  17. FAU (-2.5) @ Marshall
    1. My Pick: Marshall SU (Mar +2.5)
    2. Formula: FAU SU (Mar +2.5)
  18. Eastern Michigan (-3) @ Ball St
    1. My Pick: BSU SU (BSU +3)
    2. Formula: BSU SU (BSU +3)
  19. Western Michigan (-4) @ Central Michigan
    1. My Pick: WMU SU (WMU -4)
    2. Formula: WMU SU (CMU +4)
  20. Charlotte @ Middle Tennessee ST (-17)
    1. My Pick: MTSU SU (Char +17)
    2. Formula: MTSU SU (Char +17)
  21. Wake Forest @ FSU (-10.5)
    1. My Pick: FSU SU (FSU -10.5)
    2. Formula: FSU SU (FSU -10.5)
  22. Minnesota @ Nebraska (-3.5)
    1. My Pick: Neb SU (Neb -3.5)
    2. Formula: Minn SU (Minn +3.5)
  23. 9 Penn St (-15.5) @ Indiana
    1. My Pick: PSU SU (PSU -15.5)
    2. Formula: PSU SU (FSU -15.5)
  24. UTEP @ Louisiana Tech (-23.5)
    1. My Pick: LT SU (LT -23.5)
    2. Formula: LT SU (UTEP +23.5)
  25. Akron (-5) @ Kent St
    1. My Pick: Akron SU (Akron -5)
    2. Formula: Akron SU (Akron -5)
  26. 24 Colorado @ 15 Washington (-15.5)
    1. My Pick: Wash SU (Col +15.5)
    2. Formula: Wash SU (Col +15.5)
  27. 1 Alabama (-28.5) @ Tennessee
    1. My Pick: Bama SU (Tenn +28.5)
    2. Formula: Bama SU (Tenn +28.5)
  28. Kansas @ Texas TEch (-18.5)
    1. My Pick: TT SU (Kan +18.5)
    2. Formula: TT SU (Kan +18.5)
  29. Houston (-11.5) @ Navy
    1. My Pick: Hou SU (Navy +11.5)
    2. Formula: Hou SU (Hou -11.5)
  30. SMU @ Tulane (-7)
    1. My Pick: SMU SU (SMU +7)
    2. Formula: SMU SU (SMU +7)
  31. Louisiana @ Appalachian St (-25.5)
    1. My Pick: App SU (App -25.5)
    2. Formula: App SU (ULL +25.5)
  32. Coastal Carolina @ Umass (-3)
    1. My Pick: CC SU (CC +3)
    2. Formula: CC SU (CC +3)
  33. Memphis @ Missouri (-10)
    1. My Pick: Mizzou SU (Mem +10)
    2. Formula: Mizzou SU (PUSH)
  34. California (-7.5) @ Oregon St
    1. My Pick: Cal SU (Cal -7.5)
    2. Formula: Cal SU (Cal -7.5)
  35. Georgia Southern (-12) @ New Mexico St
    1. My Pick: GSU SU (GSU -12)
    2. Formula: GSU SU (GSU -12)
  36. UCF (-21) @ ECU
    1. My Pick: UCF SU (UCF -21)
    2. Formula: UCF SU (UCF -21)
  37. Texas St @ La-Monroe (-10.5)
    1. My Pick: ULM SU (TSU +10.5)
    2. Formula: ULM SU (TSU +10.5)
  38. UTSA @ Southern Miss (-17.5)
    1. My Pick: USM SU (UTSA +17.5)
    2. Formula: USM SU (UTSA +17.5)
  39. UCONN @ USF (-34)
    1. My Pick: USF SU (UCONN +34)
    2. Formula: USF SU (UCONN +34)
  40. 3 Ohio St (-13.5) @ Purdue
    1. My Pick: OSU SU (OSU -13.5)
    2. Formula: OSU SU (OSU -13.5)
  41. Vanderbilt @ 13 Kentucky (-11.5)
    1. My Pick: UK SU (Vandy +11.5)
    2. Formula: UK SU (Vandy +11.5)
  42. Fresno St (-13) @ New Mexico
    1. My Pick: FSU SU (FSU -13)
    2. Formula: FSU SU (FSU 13)
  43. Old Dominion @ Western Kentucky (-4.5)
    1. My Pick: WKU SU (WKU -4.5)
    2. Formula: ODU SU (ODU +4.5)
  44. Rice @ FIU (-23.5)
    1. My Pick: FIU SU (FIU -23.5)
    2. Formula: FIU SU (Rice +23.5)
  45. 25 Southern Cal @ Utah (-7)
    1. My Pick: Utah SU (USC +7)
    2. Formula: USC SU (USC +7)
  46. Arizona @ UCLA (-8)
    1. My Pick: UCLA SU (UCLA -8)
    2. Formula: UCLA SU (AZ +8)
  47. San Jose St @ San Diego St (-28)
    1. My Pick: SDSU SU (SJSU +28)
    2. Formula: SDSU SU (SJSU +28)
  48. Nevada @ Hawaii (-3)
    1. My Pick: Haw SU (Haw -3)
    2. Formula: Haw SU (Nev +3)

Have a great weekend!

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