Week 7 Preview

October 9, 2018 by Leave a Comment

Going to be partial for now (10/8) so I can get the Arkansas St v App St game on record.

Last week was a good week for me ATS.  Also a good week for the System. Both of us were above 55%. I continue to inch toward 50% ATS and the Formula continues to stay above 50%.  Straight up was another good week, although the worst week yet for both.

 

Straight up (Big-Games):

Me = 29-12 (70.7%)

Formula = 29-12 (70.7%)

 

ATS (Big Games):

Me = 21-17 (55.3%)

Formula = 22-18 (55.0%)

 

Straight up (all-Games):

Me = 219-86 (71.8%)

Formula = 229-76 (75.1%)

 

ATS:

Me = 142-151 (48.5%)

Formula = 154-137 (52.9%)

 

My Picks of the week ATS:

13-10 (56.5%) on the year.

 

Simplified Football Top 15:

  1. Alabama
  2. Georgia
  3. Ohio St
  4. Clemson
  5. Penn St
  6. Notre Dame
  7. Michigan
  8. Oklahoma
  9. West Virginia
  10. UCF
  11. Florida
  12. LSU
  13. Auburn
  14. Washington
  15. Texas

 

Playoff Match-ups as of now (taking into account future opponents):

1-Alabama/UGA winner v Clemson

2-Ohio St v Notre Dame

 

Playoff Front-runners (teams who control their own destiny):

Alabama, Georgia, Ohio St, Clemson, Notre Dame, West Virginia, Colorado, Wisconsin, Miami, & NC State.

 

Playoff Outsiders (Still can make it but need help):

Penn St, Michigan, Florida, UCF, Washington, Texas, LSU, Oregon, Oklahoma, Kentucky, USF, and Cincinnati.

 

Big Games:

  1. 17 Miami (-6) @ Virginia – Virginia is statistically the best offense that Miami has faced this year.  Odd to say as they certainly are not known for offense (nor is coach Mendenhall), but so far their Offense has been better than their defense.  Both units are just above average. Not a great team, but one that could beat Miami at home after a big emotional win/struggle against a rival (Miami v FSU).  Could very easily be a trap game for Miami.  I think it will be closer than many expect, but Miami pulls it out with a big turnover at some point. Miami has won the last 2 easily.
    1. My Pick: Miami 28 – Virginia 24 (UVA +6)
    2. Formula: Miami SU (Mia -6)
    3. Over 47
  2. Baylor @ 15 Texas (-14.5) – Texas is in a position like Miami. Big win over a rival and go against an opponent that is good enough to beat them, but not great. Traditional Trap game.  Texas however gets an added advantage that the game is at home. Both offense should do well in this game.  Should be a traditional Big 12 shootout.  Texas won big last year and squeaked by the year before by 1 point. Texas’ superior defense wins this game for them.
    1. My Pick: Texas 38 Baylor 28 (Bay +14.5)
    2. Formula: Texas SU (Bay +14.5)
    3. Over 60
  3. 19 Wisconsin @ 7 Michigan (-7.5) – Wisconsin has started to play better the last few weeks, but still not playing near the level many expected, mostly because their defense has not been good.  Michigan looks to be a legit contender now that Shea Patterson is settling in.  However they have yet to play anyone since the first game (a loss) that can really challenge them.  Michigan statistically should win this relatively easily, but I think Wisconsin will be able to run the ball against Michigan’s strong front 7. The last 2 years have been defensive slugfests.  Wisconsin winning last year and Michigan winning the year before.  I think this year will be higher scoring, but still low scoring.
    1. My Pick: Michigan 24 – Wisconsin 17 (Wisconsin +7.5)
    2. Formula: Michigan SU (Michigan -7.5)
    3. Under 49
  4. 14 Washington (-3) @ 22 Oregon – Washington has won the previous 2 meetings by 35+.  Oregon is improved and Washington is not playing as well as they have in the past, however last week looked like they may have gotten the ball rolling offensively.  Oregon QB Herbert will keep them in this game against a strong Washington defense, but in the end Washington is just a better team and better coached, even in a rough environment like Autzen field.
    1. My Pick: Wash 31 – Oregon 24 (Wash -3)
    2. Formula: Wash SU (Wash -3)
    3. Under 57
  5. 18 Colorado @ USC (-7.5) – Colorado even in their banner year of 2016 was not able to beat USC, they have played them close but not been able to beat them.  This is probably USC’s worst team in the last few years as they are largely mediocre across the board. Colorado has been good in pass defense and throwing the ball. It’s a pretty even matchup and if Colorado can push the scores into the 30’s they will likely win.  However the superior talent of USC will limit what Colorado wants to do.
    1. My Pick: USC 27 – Colorado 24 (Col +7.5)
    2. Formula: Colorado SU (Col +7.5)
    3. Under 57
  6. 2 Georgia (-7.5) @ 12 LSU – These 2 conference foes have not played the last few years. Both come in with Playoff aspirations. Georgia can stay alive with a loss, but LSU is finished if they lose.  LSU’s defense should keep them in the game, this is the best defense (by a LARGE margin) that Georgia’s offense has faced. So it will be interesting to see how they respond.  Georgia did get lucky with the scheduling and playing the game at 3:30 instead of a night game in Death Valley.  Still will be a raucous crowd.  LSU’s offense will find it tough sledding against Georgia’s defense and that will be the difference.
    1. My Pick: Georgia 24 LSU 21 (LSU +7.5)
    2. Formula: Georgia SU (UGA -7.5)
    3. Under 50
  7. 10 UCF (-4.5) @ Memphis – In the AAC champ game last year these 2 teams played one of the most entertaining games of 2017. UCF won in OT.  In the regular season UCF was able to stop Memphis offensively and win going away.  I can see this game going either way.  Will be UCF’s toughest game yet (maybe toughest all-season).  If they can get by this game, then they could find themselves at 11-0 and facing Memphis again in the AAC champ game (with a potential Playoff spot on the line).
    1. My Pick: UCF 45 – Memphis 38 (UCF -4.5)
    2. Formula: UCF SU (UCF -4.5)
    3. Over 81

 

The Rest:

  1. Appalachian St (-10.5) @ Arkansas St (10/8)
    1. My Pick: App St SU (Ark St +10.5)
    2. Formula: App St SU (App St -10.5)
  2. Texas Tech (-7.5) @ TCU
    1. My Pick: TT SU (TT +7.5)
    2. Formula: TT SU (TT +7.5)
  3. Georgia Southern (-17) @ Texas St
    1. My Pick: GSU SU (GSU -17)
    2. Formula: GSU SU (GSU -17)
  4. South Florida (-7.5) @ Tulsa
    1. My Pick: USF SU (Tulsa +7.5)
    2. Formula: USF SU (USF -7.5)
  5. Air Force @ San Diego St (-10)
    1. My Pick: SDSU SU (SDSU -10)
    2. Formula: SDSU SU (SDSU -10)
  6. Arizona @ Utah (-14)
    1. My Pick: Utah SU (AZ +14)
    2. Formula: Utah SU (AZ +14)
  7. Rutgers @ Maryland (-25)
    1. My Pick: MD SU (MD -25)
    2. Formula: MD SU (Rut +25)
  8. Oklahoma St (-7) @ Kansas St
    1. My Pick: KSU SU (KSU +7)
    2. Formula: OSU SU (OSU -7)
  9. Iowa (-5) @ Indiana
    1. My Pick: Indiana SU (Ind +5)
    2. Formula: Iowa SU (Iowa -5)
  10. Nebraska @ Northwestern (-4)
    1. My Pick: Neb SU (Neb +4)
    2. Formula: NW SU (NW -4)
  11. Minnesota @ 3 Ohio St (-29.5)
    1. My Pick: OSU SU (Minn +29.5)
    2. Formula: OSU SU (Minn +29.5)
  12. Toledo (-1.5) @ Eastern Michigan
    1. My Pick: EMU SU (EMU +1.5)
    2. Formula: EMU SU (EMU +1.5)
  13. 11 Florida (-7.5) @ Vanderbilt
    1. My Pick: UF SU (UF -7.5)
    2. Formula: UF SU (UF -7.5)
  14. Tennessee @ 13 Auburn (-15)
    1. My Pick: Aub SU (Tenn +15)
    2. Formula: Aub SU (Tenn +15)
  15. Akron @ Buffalo (-11)
    1. My Pick: Buff SU (Akron +11)
    2. Formula: Buff SU (Akron +11)
  16. Duke @ Georgia Tech (-2.5)
    1. My Pick: Duke SU (Duke +2.5)
    2. Formula: GT SU (Duke +2.5)
  17. Louisville @ Boston College (-13.5)
    1. My Pick: BC SU (BC -13.5)
    2. Formula: BC SU (Lou +13.5)
  18. UAB (-16.5) @ Rice
    1. My Pick: UAB SU (UAB -16.5)
    2. Formula: UAB SU (Rice +16.5)
  19. Southern Miss @ North Texas (-8.5)
    1. My Pick: USM SU (USM +8.5)
    2. Formula: NT SU (USM +8.5)
  20. Troy (-9) @ Liberty
    1. My Pick: Troy SU (Troy -9)
    2. Formula: Troy SU (Lib +9)
  21. Kent St @ Miami (oh) (-11)
    1. My Pick: UM SU (UM -11)
    2. Formula: UM SU (UM -11)
  22. Pittsburgh @ Notre Dame (-21)
    1. My Pick: ND SU (Pitt +21)
    2. Formula: ND SU (ND -21)
  23. Western Michigan (-14.5) @ Bowling Green
    1. My Pick: WMU SU (WMU -14.5)
    2. Formula: WMU SU (WMU -14.5)
  24. Ball St @ Central Mich (-2)
    1. My Pick: CMU SU (CMU -2)
    2. Formula: BSU SU (BSU +2)
  25. Purdue (-10.5) @ Illinois
    1. My Pick: Purd SU (Pur -10.5)
    2. Formula: Pur SU (Illini +10.5)
  26. Michigan St @ 5 Penn St (-13.5)
    1. My Pick: PSU PU (PSU -13.5)
    2. Formula: PSU PU (PSU -13.5)
  27. Ohio @ NIU (-4)
    1. My Pick: NIU SU (NIU -4)
    2. Formula: NIU SU (PUSH)
  28. Army (-14.5) @ San Jose St
    1. My Pick: Army SU (Army -14.5)
    2. Formula: Army SU (SJSU +14.5)
  29. 23 Texas AM (-3.5) @ 25 So Carolina
    1. My Pick: USC SU (USC +3.5)
    2. Formula: TAMU SU (USC +3.5)
  30. Temple (-7.5) @ Navy
    1. My Pick: Temple SU (Navy +7.5)
    2. Formula: Temple SU (Temp -7.5)
  31. Marshall (-4) @ Old Dominion
    1. My Pick: ODU SU (ODU +4)
    2. Formula: Mar SU (PUSH)
  32. UNLV @ Utah St (-24)
    1. My Pick: USU SU (USU -24)
    2. Formula: USU SU (UNLV +24)
  33. New Mexico (-1) @ Colorado St
    1. My Pick: NM SU (NM -1)
    2. Formula:  NM SU (NM -1)
  34. New Mexico St @ Louisiana (-8)
    1. My Pick: ULL SU (NMSU -8)
    2. Formula: ULL SU (NMSU -8)
  35. ULM @ Coastal Carolina (-4.5)
    1. My Pick: CC SU (CC -4.5)
    2. Formula: CC SU (CC -4.5)
  36. Virginia Tech (-5.5) @ North Carolina
    1. My Pick: VT SU (VT -5.5)
    2. Formula: VT SU (VT -5.5)
  37. 9 West Virginia (-7) @ Iowa St
    1. My Pick: WVU SU (WVU -7)
    2. Formula: WVU SU (WVU -7)
  38. UCLA @ Cal (-7)
    1. My Pick: UCLA SU (UCLA +7)
    2. Formula: Cal SU (UCLA +7)
  39. Missouri @ 1 Alabama (-28.5)
    1. My Pick: Bama SU (Missouri +28.5)
    2. Formula: Bama SU (Missouri +28.5)
  40. Houston (-16) @ East Carolina
    1. My Pick: Hou SU (ECU +16)
    2. Formula: Hou SU (ECU +16)
  41. Louisiana Tech (-13.5) @ UTSA
    1. My Pick: La Tech SU (UTSA +13.5)
    2. Formula: LT SU (UTSA +13.5)
  42. Ole Miss (-6) @ Arkansas
    1. My Pick: Ole Miss SU (Ole Miss -6)
    2. Formula: Ole Miss SU (Ole Miss -6)
  43. Middle Tennessee St @ FIU (-2.5)
    1. My Pick: FIU SU (FIU -2.5)
    2. Formula: FIU SU (MTSU +2.5)
  44. Hawaii @ BYU (-14.5)
    1. My Pick: BYU SU (Hawaii +14.5)
    2. Formula: BYU SU (Hawaii +14.5)
  45. Boise St (-17.5) @ Nevada
    1. My Pick: BSU SU (BSU -17.5)
    2. Formula: BSU SU (BSU -17.5)
  46. Wyoming @ Fresno St (-19.5)
    1. My Pick: FSU SU (FSU -19.5)
    2. Formula: FSU SU (Wyo +19.5)

Have a great weekend all.

Filed Under: 2018 Games

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