Week 6 Preview

I had a good week picking the big games. Not so much the rest of the games.  Formula continues to kick my butt.

 

Straight up (Big-Games):

Me = 24-10 (70.6%)

Formula = 26-8 (76.4%)

 

ATS (Big Games):

Me = 16-15 (51.6%)

Formula = 17-16 (51.5%)

 

Straight up (all-Games):

Me = 184-65 (73.9%)

Formula = 192-58 (76.8%)

 

ATS:

Me = 112-127 (46.9%)

Formula = 125-114 (50.8%)

 

My Picks of the week ATS:

7-9 (43.8%) on the year.

 

Simplified Football Top 15:

  1. Alabama
  2. Georgia
  3. Ohio St
  4. Oklahoma
  5. Clemson
  6. Penn St
  7. LSU
  8. Notre Dame
  9. Michigan
  10. West Virginia
  11. Auburn
  12. Florida
  13. UCF
  14. Kentucky
  15. Washington

 

Playoff Match-ups as of now (taking into account future opponents):

1-Alabama/UGA winner v Clemson

2-Ohio St v Oklahoma

 

Playoff Front-runners (teams who control their own destiny):

Alabama, Georgia, Ohio St, Clemson, Oklahoma, LSU, Notre Dame, West Virginia, Kentucky, Colorado, Oklahoma St, Wisconsin, Miami, & NC State.

 

Playoff Outsiders (Still can make it but need help):

Penn St, Michigan, Auburn, Florida, UCF, Washington, Stanford, Texas, Syracuse, Oregon, Missouri, USF, and Cincinnati.

 

Everyone else is pretty much dead in the water.  OU, Texas, LSU, ND, Kentucky, NC State, Miami, and Florida are all on the docket and can change where they are this weekend.

We are down to 14 undefeated teams left now. Not many ranked match-ups this week, but we do have a few rivalry games and a few games with ranked teams on the road against quality opponents.  One of those make or break type weeks.  I’m actually expecting some carnage.

 

Big Games:

  1. Florida State @ 18 Miami – Florida State has struggled this year so far and Miami has whooped up on lesser opponents, but lost to the one legit team it played (undefeated LSU) pretty big.  Miami won in the closing seconds last year to break FSU’s streak of 7 straight.  This rivalry often has unexpected results and is generally pretty hard to get a gauge on. One odd thing is Miami has no won a home game in this rivalry in over a decade. I expect both DL’s to take advantage of OL, get pressure on the QB and limit the ground game.  Miami will likely get a few big pass plays, but overall be pretty inefficient throwing the ball.  FSU will be more efficient and have some big plays as well there.  This rivalry typically comes down to who makes big plays.  FSU over the last year and a half has not been very good in that category, Miami has been.
    1. My Pick: Miami 24 – FSU 21 (FSU +14)
    2. Formula: Miami SU (FSU +14)
  2. 8 Notre Dame @ Virginia Tech – Virginia Tech won 34-31 two years ago.  VT had an awful loss to Old Dominion and ND has looked better each week.  However VT has looked pretty good outside of the Old Dominion game.  Both defenses are solid and should keep this a lower scoring game. Look for the winning team to be the one that has the most success in the air.
    1. My Pick: ND 27 – VT 20 (ND -5.5)
    2. Formula: ND SU (ND -5.5)
  3. 17 Texas v 4 Oklahoma – The red river shootout (I’m old school). Another rivalry game that has very unexpected results often. Last year OU won 29-24, and won 45-40 two years ago. Texas has looked much improved so far this year and OU has had a scare against Army. They do look more vulnerable this year than last year.  Texas is by far the best defense OU has faced this season.  I still expect it to be somewhat high scoring.  If this game starts getting carried away offensively then that definitely favors OU. UT will want to keep the scoring lower and make it a defensive game.
    1. My Pick: Texas 28 – OU 27 (Tex +7.5)
    2. Formula: OU SU (Tex +7.5)
  4. Maryland v 9 Michigan – Michigan has destroyed Maryland the last 2 years.  Maryland has had extensive injury issues at Quarterback dating back almost half a decade (really quite remarkable). I think this game will be significantly closer than the last two years.  However Michigan seems to have found some offense and looks pretty formidable.  Maryland will look to try and run the ball and stop Michigan’s rushing attack. How successful they are able to do that will determine how good they do in this game.
    1. My Pick: Mich 31-MD 21 (MD +17.5)
    2. Formula: Mich SU (MD +17.5)
  5. Utah at 16 Stanford – Stanford won a nail-biter last year 23-20.  Utah has one of the better defenses in the nation, but also one of the worst offenses.  Stanford has been decent in just about every aspect except run offense (the one aspect they usually excel at). In the end I think Stanford is just a better team and Utah will really struggle to move the ball against Stanford.
    1. My Pick: Stan 24 – Utah 14 (Stan -5)
    2. Formula: Stan SU (Stan -5)
  6. 7 LSU at 13 Florida – Both offenses have really struggled to be consistent. Both defenses have been pretty good.  This should be another SEC defensive slugfest. Both teams will struggle to throw the ball. UF should have better success on the ground (not much), that should be enough for them to pull it out.
    1. My Pick: UF 17 – LSU 14 (UF +2.5)
    2. Formula: LSU SU (UF +2.5)
  7. San Diego St @ Boise St – Overall this is a pretty even match-up except for one category.  Boise St should have no issues throwing it on San Diego St. SDSU Pass defense has been pretty bad and Boise’s pass offense has been pretty efficient.  Should be a big day for Boise St in that regard, even if the rest of the game is pretty close.
    1. My Pick: BSU 34 – SDSU 20 (SDSU +14.5)
    2. Formula: BSU SU (SDSU +14.5)

 

The Rest:

  1. Georgia St @ Troy (-15.5)
    1. My Pick: Troy SU (Troy -15.5)
    2. Formula: Troy SU (GSU +15.5)
  2. Tulsa at Houston (-18)
    1. My Pick: Houston SU (Tul +18)
    2. Formula: Houston SU (Tul +18)
  3. Georgia Tech (-3.5) @ Louisville
    1. My Pick: GT SU (GT -3.5)
    2. Formula: GT SU (GT -3.5)
  4. Middle Tennessee St @ Marshall (-7)
    1. My Pick: Marshall SU (MTSU +7)
    2. Formula: Marshall SU (MTSU +7)
  5. Utah St @ BYU (-2.5)
    1. My Pick: BYU SU (BYU -2.5)
    2. Formula: BYU SU (BYU -2.5)
  6. 1 Alabama (-35) @ Arkansas
    1. My Pick: Bama SU (Bama -35)
    2. Formula: Bama SU (Bama -35)
  7. Kansas @ 10 WVU (-28.5)
    1. My Pick: WVU SU (WVU -28.5)
    2. Formula: WVU SU (Kan +28.5)
  8. Northwestern @ Michigan St (-11.5)
    1. My Pick: MSU SU (NW +11.5)
    2. Formula: MSU SU (NW +11.5)
  9. Tulane at Cincinnati (-7.5)
    1. My Pick: Cinci SU (Cinci -7.5)
    2. Formula: Cinci SU (Cinci -7.5)
  10. Buffalo (-7.5) at Central Mich
    1. My Pick: Buff SU (Buff -7.5)
    2. FOrmula: Buff SU (CMU +7.5)
  11. Eastern Mich @ Western Mich (-3.5)
    1. My Pick: EMU SU (EMU +3.5)
    2. Formula: WMU SU (EMU +3.5)
  12. ECU at Temple (-11.5)
    1. My Pick: Temple SU (ECU +11.5)
    2. Formula: Temple SU (ECU +11.5)
  13. Missouri @ South Carolina (-2)
    1. My Pick: Missouri SU (Mizzou +2)
    2. Formula: So Car SU (Mizzou +2)
  14. Illinois (-4) at Rutgers
    1. My Pick: Illinois SU (Illini -4)
    2. Formula: Illinois SU (Illini -4)
  15. Syracuse (-4.5) at Pittsburgh
    1. My Pick: Cuse SU (Cuse -4.5)
    2. Formula: Cuse SU (Cuse -4.5)
  16. Boston College at 21 North Carolina St (-4.5)
    1. My Pick: BC SU (BC +4.5)
    2. Formula: NCSU SU (NCSU -4.5)
  17. Northern Illinois (-3.5) at Ball St
    1. My Pick: NIU SU (NIU -3.5)
    2. Formula: NIU SU (NIU -3.5)
  18. 5 Clemson (-17) at Wake Forest
    1. My Pick: Clem SU (WF +17)
    2. Formula: Clem SU (Clem -17)
  19. Iowa St at 24 Oklahoma St (-10.5)
    1. My Pick: Ok St SU (Ok St -10.5)
    2. Formula: Ok St SU (ISU +10.5)
  20. Ohio (-12.5) at Kent St
    1. My Pick: Ohio SU (Ohio -12.5)
    2. Formula: Ohio SU (KSU +12.5)
  21. Miami (oh) at Akron (-3.5)
    1. My Pick: Akron SU (Akron -3.5)
    2. Formula: Akron SU (Akron -3.5)
  22. Navy (-3.5) at Air Force
    1. My Pick: Navy SU (Navy -3.5)
    2. Formula: Navy SU (Navy -3.5)
  23. Bowling Green at Toledo (-20.5)
    1. My Pick: Toledo SU (BGU +20.5)
    2. Formula: Toledo SU (BGU +20.5)
  24. South Alabama at Georgia Southern (-14)
    1. My Pick: GSU SU (GSU -14)
    2. Formula: GSU SU (GSU -14)
  25. South Florida (13.5) at UMASS
    1. My Pick: USF SU (USF -13.5)
    2. Formula: USF SU (USF -13.5)
  26. Kansas St at Baylor (-5)
    1. My Pick: KSU SU (KSU +5)
    2. Formula: Baylor SU (KSU +5)
  27. Iowa (-6) at Minnesota
    1. My Pick: Minn SU (Minn +6)
    2. Formula: Iowa SU (Minn +6)
  28. Indiana at 3 Ohio St (-25)
    1. My Pick: OSU SU (Ind +25)
    2. Formula: OSU SU (Ind +25)
  29. Arizona St at Colorado (-2.5)
    1. My Pick: Ariz St SU (ASU +2.5)
    2. Formula: Colorado SU (ASU +2.5)
  30. La-Monroe at Ole Miss (-23)
    1. My Pick: Ole Miss SU (Ole Miss -23)
    2. Formula: Ole Miss SU (ULM +23)
  31. New Mexico at UNLV (-10)
    1. My Pick: UNLV SU (UNLV -10)
    2. Formula: UNLV SU (NM +10)
  32. Old Dominion at FAU (-15)
    1. My Pick: FAU SU (FAU -15)
    2. Formula: FAU SU (ODU +15)
  33. Southern Methodist at 13 Central Florida (-24)
    1. My Pick: UCF SU (SMU +24)
    2. Formula: UCF SU (PUSH)
  34. 14 Kentucky at Texas A&M (-5)
    1. My Pick: TAMU SU (UK +5)
    2. Formula: UK SU (UK +5)
  35. Alabama Birm at Louisiana Tech (-9)
    1. My Pick: LT SU (UAB +9)
    2. Formula: LT SU (UAB +9)
  36. UTSA at Rice (-2.5)
    1. My Pick: UTSA SU (UTSA +2.5)
    2. Formula: UTSA SU (UTSA +2.5)
  37. Louisiana (-3) at Texas St
    1. My Pick: ULL SU (ULL -3)
    2. Formula: ULL SU (ULL -3)
  38. UCONN at Memphis (-35)
    1. My Pick: Mem SU (Mem -35)
    2. Formula: Mem SU (UCONN +35)
  39. Vanderbilt at 2 Georgia (-26.5)
    1. My Pick: UGA SU (UGA -26.5)
    2. Formula: UGA SU (Vandy +26.5)
  40. 11 Auburn (-3) at Mississippi st
    1. My Pick: Aub SU (Aub -3)
    2. Formula: Aub SU (Aub -3)
  41. 15 Washington (-21) at UCLA
    1. My Pick: Wash SU (Wash -21)
    2. Formula: Wash SU (Wash -21)
  42. Nebraska at 25 Wisconsin (-20)
    1. My Pick: Wisc SU (Neb +20)
    2. Formula: Wisc SU (Neb +20)
  43. North Texas (-25.5) at UTEP
    1. My Pick: NT SU (NT -25.5)
    2. Formula: NT SU (NT -25.5)
  44. Liberty (-4) at New Mexico St
    1. My Pick: Lib SU (Lib -4)
    2. Formula: Lib SU (Lib -4)
  45. Washington St (-16) at Oregon St
    1. My Pick: Wash St SU (WSU -16)
    2. Formula: WSU SU (WSU -16)
  46. California (-2) at Arizona
    1. My Pick: Zona SU (Zona +2)
    2. Formula: EVEN (Zona +2)
  47. Colorado St (-3) at San Jose St
    1. My Pick: SJSU SU (SJSU +3)
    2. Formula: SJSU SU (SJSU +3)
  48. Fresno St (-11.5) at Nevada
    1. My Pick: Fresno St SU (FSU -11.5)
    2. Formula: Fresno St SU (FSU -11.5)
  49. Wyoming at Hawaii (-3)
    1. My Pick: Haw SU (Haw -3)
    2. Formula: Wyoming SU (Wyo +3)

Have a great weekend everyone.

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