Week 1-2018

August 30, 2018 by Leave a Comment

Last year I was correct on 67% of the picks (both big games and all games). I’ll look to build on that success this year.  Also this year I will also put down the formula’s picks ATS, as well as compare the Formula’s Straight Up picks for all games with my own.

1-Big Games – Games between Ranked opponents, each Power 5 conferences biggest game, and biggest game for Group of 5. Usually will be 6-7 games, sometimes more depending on the quality of match-ups. Will usually include some kind of write-up and score prediction.

2-All Games – The Rest of the games between FBS opponents.

All Games will include The Formula’s pick Straight up and ATS, as well as My own picks.

 

Big Games:

Lot of big games in week 1, as is usually the case with a lot of Prime-Time Out of Conference match-ups. Four games feature ranked opponents facing off, one has a ranked opponent on the road against a quality opponent, and a few other games to round it out.

  1. Florida Atlantic @ 13 Oklahoma (-20.5) – At first glance you may think, why is this game on here.  FAU has a very potent offense with an NFL caliber running back (and lots of Power 5 transfers).  Oklahoma has a very porous defense that doesn’t look to be much better.  FAU returns a lot on both sides of the ball of a very good team. OU loses a heisman winner.  This should be a high scoring affair, and FAU will keep it closer than many would expect.
    1. My Pick – OU 41 – FAU 35 (FAU +20.5)
    2. Formula – Oklahoma SU (FAU +20.5)
  2. 18 Tennessee v West Virginia (-10) – Best match-up for a Big 12 school. Also a very intriguing one.  New coach for Tennessee and a Heisman candidate at QB for WVU.  Will be interesting to see how much success Grier can have against a Pruitt defense.  Pruitt’s defenses at new locations have typically started slow against quality opponents, before hitting stride mid-season (year 1).
    1. My Pick – WVU 31 – Tenn 28 (Tenn +10)
    2. Formula – Tennessee SU (Tenn +10)
  3. San Diego St @ 10 Stanford (-14) – Another game that you might question why is it here.  Last year Stanford went to San Diego and lost 20-17.  This year SDSU travels to Stanford.  Stanford returns a good amount including Heisman candidate at RB. San Diego St was led by their defense and RB last year, much of the defense is gone as is Penny the RB. This game should look significantly different than last year’s Defensive slug-fest.
    1. My Pick – Stanford 34 – SDSU 21 (SDSU +14)
    2. Formula – Stanford SU (Stanford -14)
  4. 8 Washington v 7 Auburn (-2) – Perhaps the biggest game of the day.  Both were in the Playoff Hunt last year and look to be in it again this year. Washington is the favorite for the Pac 12 Championship, and Auburn is one of the better teams in the SEC (will come down to their game against Alabama, again).  Both teams return a lot from last year’s very good teams. Particularly on offense.  Both teams have been prolific defensively the last several years and inconsistent offensively.  This game will come down to which offense can find consistency.
    1. My Pick – Auburn 27 – Washington 24 (Auburn – 2)
    2. Formula – Auburn SU (Washington +2)
  5. Boise St (-10.5) @ Troy – Boise St is not ranked by SF, but they are ranked in both media polls.  Should be 2 of the better Group of 5 teams. Boise St is very well balanced and Troy despite losing a bunch should still have a quality defense, and make a run at the Sun Belt championship.
    1. My Pick – Boise St 28 – Troy 24 (Troy +10.5)
    2. Formula – Boise St SU (Troy +10.5)
  6. 9 Michigan @ 19 Notre Dame (-1) – The old rivalry is back. They have been playing this game since 1887 mostly yearly (with a few hiatus’). They haven’t played since 2014 when ND moved their sports to the ACC. The 5th year seniors have faced off once with Notre Dame winning by 31, but a LOT has changed since then. ND returns a good amount of players off of a top 15 team. Michigan returns a good amount as well, but has recruited very well over the last several years.  Both defenses should be top 20 defenses, with ND having the better offense, although that remains to be seen with Harbaugh now having a quality QB.
    1. My Pick – Notre Dame 21 – Michigan 17 (ND -1)
    2. Formula – Michigan SU (Michigan +1)
  7. 23 Miami (-3.5) v 14 LSU – Both teams had good defenses last year, albeit in different ways. Miami was a big play defense that you could move the ball on, LSU was tough to move the ball on. LSU is adept at running the ball, although they lost star RB Derrius Guice. Miami had a balanced offense a year ago. Both Quarterbacks leave a lot to be desired.  I think Miami’s defense will come back down to earth this year and not create so many turnovers, although they will be tougher to move the ball against. However in game 1 against LSU I think we will see the Turnover Chain a decent amount.
    1. My Pick – Miami 24 – LSU 17 (Miami -3.5)
    2. Formula – LSU SU (LSU +3.5)
  8. Virginia Tech @ 5 FSU (-7.5) – Lot of unknowns in this game. How will FSU look with new coach and new schemes? How will VT do on defense with so many suspensions and departures? The new staff at FSU and huge shift in culture should create a lot of buzz and excitement in game 1. Should see a vastly improved FSU team over last years 7-6 team. Would be foolish to expect VT to fall to far with Fuente/Foster manning the helm, should still put together a borderline top 25, 8+ win season.
    1. My Pick – FSU 31 – VT 21 (FSU -7.5)
    2. Formula – FSU SU (FSU -7.5)

The Rest:

  1. Appalachian St @ 3 Penn St
    1. My Pick – Penn St SU (Penn St -23.5)
    2. Formula – Penn St SU (PSU -23.5)
  2. Wake Forest @ Tulane
    1. My Pick – Wake SU (Wake -6)
    2. Formula – Wake SU (Wake -6)
  3. Syracuse @ Western Michigan
    1. My Pick – Cuse SU (Cuse -5)
    2. Formula – Cuse SU (Cuse -5)
  4. Army @ Duke
    1. My Pick – Duke SU (Army +13.5)
    2. Formula – Duke SU (Duke -13.5)
  5. UMASS @ BC
    1. My Pick – BC SU (BC -18)
    2. Formula – BC SU (BC -18)
  6. UNC @ Cal
    1. My Pick – Cal SU (Cal -7.5)
    2. Formula – Cal SU (Cal -7.5)
  7. Louisville @ 1 Alabama
    1. My Pick – Bama SU (UL +24.5)
    2. Formula – Bama SU (UL +24.5)
  8. 24 UCF @ UCONN
    1. My Pick – UCF SU (UCONN +23.5)
    2. Formula – UCF SU (UCF -23.5)
  9. Houston @ Rice
    1. My Pick – Houston SU (Rice +25.5)
    2. Formula – Houston SU (Rice +25.5)
  10. Cincinnati @ 25 UCLA
    1. My Pick – UCLA SU (UCLA -15)
    2. Formula – UCLA SU (UCLA – 15)
  11. SMU @ North Texas
    1. My Pick – SMU SU (SMU -4.5)
    2. Formula – SMU SU (SMU -4.5)
  12. Navy @ Hawaii
    1. My Pick – Navy SU (Navy -11)
    2. Formula – Navy SU (Navy -11)
  13. 17 Texas v Maryland
    1. My Pick – Texas SU (Texas -13.5)
    2. Formula – Texas SU (Maryland +13.5)
  14. Ole Miss v Texas Tech
    1. My Pick – Ole Miss SU (Ole Miss +2.5)
    2. Formula – Ole Miss SU (Ole Miss +2.5)
  15. New Mexico St @ Minnesota
    1. My Pick – Minnesota SU (Minn – 21)
    2. Formula – Minnesota SU (Minn -21)
  16. Northwestern @ Purdue
    1. My Pick – Purdue SU (Purdue -1)
    2. Formula – Northestern SU (Northwestern +1)
  17. Utah St @ 20 Michigan St
    1. My Pick – MSU SU (USU +23.5)
    2. Formula – MSU SU ( USU +23.5)
  18. Western Kentucky @ 6 Wisconsin
    1. My Pick – Wisc SU (Wisc -34)
    2. Formula – Wisc SU (Wisc -34)
  19. Oregon St @ 11 Ohio St
    1. My Pick – Ohio St SU (Oregon St +38.5)
    2. Formula – Ohio St SU (Oregon St +38.5)
  20. Kent St @ Illinois
    1. My Pick – Illinois SU (Ilini -16.5)
    2. Formula – Illinois SU (Kent St +16.5)
  21. Texas St @ Rutgers
    1. My Pick – Rutgers SU (Texas St +16)
    2. Formula – Rutgers SU (Texas St +16)
  22. Northern Illinois @ Iowa
    1. My Pick – Iowa SU (NIU +10.5)
    2. Formula – Iowa SU (Iowa -10.5)
  23. Indiana @ FIU
    1. My Pick – Indiana SU (Ind -10.5)
    2. Formula – Indiana SU (Ind -10.5)
  24. Akron @ Nebraska
    1. My Pick – Nebraska SU (Nebraska -24.5)
    2. Formula – Nebraska SU (Akron +24.5)
  25. Marshall @ Miami (Oh)
    1. My Pick – Marshall SU (Marshall -2.5)
    2. Formula – Marshall SU ( Marshall -2.5)
  26. Old Dominion
    1. My Pick – ODU SU (ODU -7)
    2. Formula – ODU SU (ODU -7)
  27. Louisiana Tech @ South Alabama
    1. My Pick – USA SU (USA +10.5)
    2. Formula – LT SU (USA +10.5)
  28. Middle Tennessee St @ Vanderbilt
    1. My Pick – MTSU SU (MTSU +3)
    2. Formula – Vandy SU (MTSU +3)
  29. UTSA @ Arizona St
    1. My Pick – ASU SU (ASU -18.5)
    2. Formula – ASU SU (ASU -18.5)
  30. BYU @ Arizona
    1. My Pick – Arizona SU (BYU +12)
    2. Formula – Arisona SU (BYU +12)
  31. Central Michigan @ Kentucky
    1. My Pick – Kentucky SU (Kentucky -17)
    2. Formula – Kentucky SU (CMU +17)
  32. Bowling Green @ Oregon
    1. My Pick – Oregon SU (Oregon -32)
    2. Formula – Oregon SU (Oregon -32)
  33. Colorado @ Colorado St
    1. My Pick – CU SU (CU -7.5)
    2. Formula – CU SU (CU -7.5)
  34. Washington St @ Wyoming
    1. My Pick – Wyoming SU (Wyoming +1)
    2. Formula – WSU SU (WSU -1)
  35. UNLV @ USC
    1. My Pick – USC SU (USC -26.5)
    2. Formula – USC SU (USC – 26.5)
  36. Coastal Carolina @ South Carolina
    1. My Pick – So Car SU (So Car -29.5)
    2. Formula – So Car SU (CC +29.5)

 

Have fun watching the games! Isn’t it great to have Football Back!!??!!

Filed Under: 2018 Games

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