Last week SF went 5-2 bringing the yearly total to 13-7 (65%).

Formula was 39-16 Straight up, 101-39 on the year.

It was 22-32 ATS, 56-82 on the year.

 

It is another good week of Football games featuring several top Match-ups, will see a few undefeated teams fall this week again.

Simplified Football Picks:

1. Clemson over GT 24-20
2. Baylor over Oklahoma St 31-28
3. Ole Miss over UGA 34-31
4. Michigan St over Wisconsin 24-21
5. Tennessee over Florida 17-14
6. UCLA over Stanford 28-24
7. Texas A&M over Arkansas 34-27

 

Formula Picks (Straight up picks in Bold):

Clemson -10 (@ GT)

Eastern Michigan +3 (v Wyoming)

SMU +21 (v TCU)

USC +3 (@ Utah)

Kent St +44 (@ Bama)

Georgia +7.5 (@ Ole Miss)

Purdue -6 (v Nevada)

San Jose St +7 (@Iowa St)

Charlotte +27.5 (@ Temple)

Rutgers +13.5 (@ Iowa)

FSU -7 (@ USF)

Colorado St +16 (@ Minnesota)

Wisconsin +5.5 (@ Michigan St)

Virginia Tech -11 (v ECU)

Syracuse +3.5 (@ UCONN)

Miami (oh) +17.5 (@ Cincinnati)

Akron +6.5 (v Appalachian St)

Oregon St +13.5 (v Boise St)

West Virginia -7 (v BYU)

Duke +21 (@ Notre Dame)

UMASS +22 (v Miss St)

UF +7 (@ Tennessee)

UNC -7 (v Pitt)

UTSA +4 (@ ODU)

Penn St +16 (@ Michigan)

Wake Forest +6.5 (@ Indiana)

Vanderbilt +7.5 (@ Western KY)

Fresno St +14.5 (v Tulsa)

Oregon -10 (v Colorado)

Auburn +3.5 (v LSU)

FAU +3.5 (v Ball St)

North Texas +7 (@ Rice)

Texas St +35 (v Houston)

New Mexico St +20 (@ Troy)

Georgia Southern +7 (@ Western Michigan)

UCF -6.5 (@ FIU)

Louisiana Tech +5.5 (@ MTSU)

Buffalo +14 (v Army)

Northwestern +7.5 (v Nebraska)

Oklahoma St +8.5 (@ Baylor)

USC +3 (@ UK)

UCLA +3.5 (v Stanford)

Marshall +27 (v Louisville)

Bowling Green +16.5 (@ Memphis)

Lafayette +5 (@ Tulane)

Southern Miss -10 (@ UTEP)

Idaho +14.5 (@ UNLV)

TAMU -6 (v Arkansas)

Arizona St -4 (v California)

Utah St +3 (v Air Force)

Washington

Last week SF was 3-1 in their picks, bringing the season total to 8-5.

The Formula was 17-28 (34-50 on the season) Against the Spread

& 36-9 (62-23 on the season) Straight Up.

 

This week’s SF picks:

1. Louisville over FSU 31-28. Lamar Jackson is too much for FSU to handle on the road with Derwin James. FSU goes down in a tight game
2. Oregon over Nebraska 32-21. Nebraska fights valiantly but Oregon pulls off the Upset on the Road.
3. Alabama over Ole Miss 34-24. Hurd outplays Morris and takes advantage of Ole Miss’ depleted secondary as Alabama gets revenge from the last 2 seasons.
4. Texas A&M over Auburn 28-24. TAMU goes to Auburn and pulls off a big win against Auburn.
5. Notre Dame over Michigan St 28-21. Notre Dame defends it’s home turf and stays in contention for a playoff berth.
6. Ohio St over Oklahoma 42-38. Ohio St destroys OU in Norman and puts the Big 12’s playoff chances on life support…in Week 3.
7. Stanford over USC 24-21. Stanford wins a tough home game to remain a legit playoff contender.

 

Formula Picks (Straight Up pick is in Bold):

Cincinnati +8.5 (v Houston)

Rice +31 (v Baylor)

Arkansas St +9 (@ Utah St)

UTSA +19.5 (v Arizona St)

Ohio +27.5 (@ Tennessee)

Iowa St +24.5 (@ TCU)

Akron +17 (@ Marshall)

Rutgers -5.5 (v New Mexico)

Bowling Green +6.5 (v Mid Tenn St)

Florida St -3 (@ Louisville)

Penn St -8.5 (v Temple)

Kansas +20 (@ Memphis)

Georgia St +34.5 (@ Wisconsin)

Miami -4 (@ Appalachian St)

Vandy +6.5 (@ Georgia Tech)

UVA +4.5 (@UCONN)

Idaho +25 (@ Washington St)

FAU +22 (@ Kansas St)

UNLV +13 (@ Central Michigan)

Fresno St +20.5 (@ Toledo)

NIU +10.5 (v San Diego St)

Colorado +21 (@ Michigan)

Oregon +3 (@ Nebraska)

Alabama -11 (@ Ole Miss)

UMASS Even (v FIU)

Miami (oh) +17.5 (v Western KY)

Pittsburgh +6 (@ Oklahoma St)

Syracuse +14.5 (v USF)

Boston College +6 (@ Virginia Tech)

Illinois +3 (v Western Michigan)

Kentucky -19.5 (v New Mexico St)

South Carolina -3 (v ECU)

Charlotte +3 (v Eastern Michigan)

Old Dominion +21.5 (@North Carolina St)

Louisiana Monroe +25 (@ Georgia Southern)

UCF +8.5 (v Maryland)

Tulane +6 (v Navy)

Louisiana Lafayette -3 (v Southern Alabama)

Louisiana Tech +11 (@ Texas Tech)

Southern Mississippi -10.5 (v Troy)

LSU -14 (v Mississippi St)

Texas AM +3.5 (@ Auburn)

UTEP +4 (v Army)

Texas St +31 (@ Arkansas)

North Texas +36.5 (@ Florida)

Notre Dame -7.5 (v Michigan St)

Georgia -7 (@ Missouri)

Ohio St -3 (@ Oklahoma)

Duke +6 (@ Northwestern)

USC +9 (@ Stanford)

Nevada -11 (v Buffalo)

UCLA -3.5 (@ BYU)

San Jose St +13 (v Utah)

Texas -8 (@ California)

Hawaii +24.5 (v Arizona)

 

SF went 5-4 last week, not bad for a week 1 with so many top match-ups.

The Formula was 17-22 Against The Spread & 26-14 Straight Up.

 

This week pales in comparison to last week, but we still picked 4 games to predict as well as the Formula’s picks for the rest of the games.

Top Games:

1. Pittsburgh 20 – Penn St 17 (A defensive affair see’s Pitt RB Conner have another good day and top it off with a game winning score in the 4th).
2. TCU 35 – Arkansas 32 (Arkansas takes advantage of a weak TCU defense, but Kenny Hill proves too much in the end out scoring Arkansas).
3. Utah 28 – BYU 21 (The Holy War sees Utah get a win over rivals BYU).
4. Tennessee 24 – Virginia Tech 21 (The biggest game this week, primarily due to the location, not the participating teams, has Tennessee outlasting VT to win).

 

Formula’s picks (Straight up picks are in Bold):

Maryland -10 (@FIU)

Syracuse +14.5 (v Louisville)

Central Michigan +21 (@ Oklahoma St)

NC State -4.5 (@ ECU)

Penn St +6 (@ Pittsburgh)

UCF +35.5 (@Michigan)

Purdue +6.5 (v Cincinnati)

Rice +10 (@ Army)

UMASS +17 (v BC)

Wyoming +24.5 (@ Nebraska)

Troy +36 (@ Clemson)

Georgia State +18 (@Air Force)

USC -16 (v Utah State)

Kansas -3 (v Ohio)

UCONN +3.5 (@ Navy)

Tulsa +29.5 (@Ohio State)

Wake Forest +5 (@ Duke)

Old Dominion +20.5 (@Appalachian St)

Akron +24 (@ Wisconsin)

Nevada +28 (@ Notre Dame)

UK +17 (@ Florida)

Alabama -29.5 (v Western Kentucky)

SMU +32 (@Baylor)

Ball State +18 (@ Indiana)

UTSA +10.5 (@ Colorado State)

Vanderbilt -5.5 (v MTSU)

Idaho +37 (@ Washington)

Miami -24 (v FAU)

USA +13 (v Georgia Southern)

ULM +46 (@ OU)

NIU +14.5 (@ USF)

UTEP +29 (@ Texas)

South Carolina +6.5 (@ Miss State)

Arkansas +7.5 (@TCU)

Auburn -19 (v Arkansas St)

Iowa St +15 (@ Iowa)

Utah -3.5 (v BYU)

Eastern Michigan +25 (@ Missouri)

Illinois +9.5 (v UNC)

VT +11.5 (v Tennessee)

UCLA -26.5 (v UNLV)

New Mexico -12.5 (@ New Mexico St)

Texas Tech @ Arizona State is a Push

Washington St +11.5 (@ Boise St)

Cal +7.5 (@ San Diego St)

UVA +24.5 (@ Oregon)

Going to do things a tad different this year. I will still give my picks for the top match-ups each week. But this year I am going to add in every game between FBS opponents and the formula’s pick against the Spread.

So far over the last 3 years I am 68% with my picks here. Hopefully I can continue that this year.

There are a LOT of good games to start the 2016 season off, enough that many are saying this is the best opening week ever. I think this might be one of the best College Football Season’s ever!

 

Top Match-ups:

1. Stanford 38 – Kansas St 24 (Kansas St keeps it close, but Stanford pulls away at the end)
2. Oklahoma 35 – Houston 28 (Houston’s upset bid and Playoff chances end as OU’s offense proves too much for Houston to handle)
3. Texas A&M 31 – UCLA 28 (In what might be the best game of the weekend, Texas A&M holds off UCLA)
4. LSU 24 – Wisconsin 14 (Wisconsin’s Defense keeps them in the game and keeps Fournette under wraps for most of the game, LSU depth proves too much in the end)
5. Georgia 27 – North Carolina 31 (Mitch Trobisky ruins Coach Smart’s first game and enters the national conscience)
6. Alabama 31 – USC 21 (USC just doesn’t have the depth to hang with Alabama this year. Alabama out lasts USC)
7. Clemson 28 – Auburn 21 (Auburn keeps this game closer than many expect. But Clemson is too good in the end)
8. Notre Dame 28 – Texas 20 (Texas Defense keeps them in the game, but their offense just isn’t good enough to pull off the upset. Keep it close in Austin)
9. Florida State 28 – Ole Miss 17 (Dalvin Cook has a good day, and FSU pulls away from Ole Miss in the end. FSU’s defense makes a statement for 2016).

 

Formula Spread Picks (Straight up pick is in bold):

1. Charlotte +39 (@Louisville)
2. Tulane +17 (@Wake Forest)
3. FIU +10.5 (Indiana)
4. Appalachian St +21.5 (@Tenn)
5. South Carolina +4 (@Vandy)
6. Rice +17 (@WKU)
7. Oregon St +13 (@Minn)
8. Georgia St – 4 (Ball St)
9. Army +16 (@Temple)
10. Colorado St +8.5 (@Colorado)
11. Kansas St +15 (@Stanford)
12. Arkansas St -3.5 (Toledo)
13. Georgia Tech -3 (@Boston College)
14. Oklahoma -11.5 (Houston)
15. Bowling Green +28 (@Ohio St)
16. Northwestern -5 (Western Mich)
17. Hawaii +40 (@Michigan)
18. Louisiana Lafayette +20 (Boise St)
19. South Alabama +28 (@Miss St)
20. West Virginia -10 (Missouri)
21. Rutgers +27 (@Washington)
22. UCLA +3 (@Texas A&M)
23. Wisconsin +10.5 (LSU)
24. Kent State +21.5 (@Penn St)
25. Miami (Oh) +27.5) (Iowa)
26. Texas St +21 (@Ohio)
27. Louisiana Tech +26 (Arkansas)
28. North Carolina +3 (UGA)
29. North Texas +9.5 (SMU)
30. San Jose St +5.5 (@Tulsa)
31. Kentucky -6.5 (Southern Miss)
32. UMASS +36 (@UF)
33. USC +12 (Alabama)
34. Fresno State +28 (@Nebraska)
35. UTEP -9 (New Mexico St)
36. Auburn +8 (Clemson)
37. Arizona -1 (BYU)
38. Wyoming +10 (NIU)
39. Notre Dame -4 (@Texas)
40. Florida State -4.5 (Ole Miss)

Well I hope everyone is ready for the 2016 season! I know we here at Simplified Football sure are. It’s year 3 of the playoff system and there is sure to be a lot of controversy and discussion and twists and turns this season. We’ll start this season off with a Power Poll of the top 25 Rated teams, as well as a prediction of the final Top 25 and Conference Champions. The Power Poll is just a ranking of how our formula rates each team based off of talent, experience, and past performance relative to their talent and experience.

Last season’s Top rated team was Alabama. Who ended up winning the National Title. Michigan State was 5th and Clemson was top 25. Only Oklahoma last year was outside of the Pre-season top 25. 2014 We correctly predicted 3 of the Playoff Teams (FSU, Oregon, and Alabama), with the 4th team being the Big 10 champ who we predicted as Wisconsin instead of Ohio St (We correctly had Wisconsin and Ohio St in the Big 10 Champ game, just incorrectly predicted the winner).

 

SF Pre-Season Top 25:

1. Alabama (4.96)
2. FSU (4.84)
3. LSU (4.83)
4. Michigan (4.69)
5. UCLA (4.62)
6. Texas A&M (4.56)
7. Southern Cal (4.55)
8. Notre Dame (4.54)
9. Ohio St (4.54)
10. Auburn (4.52)
11. Clemson (4.51)
12. West Virginia (4.50)
13. Georgia (4.45)
14. Tennessee (4.44)
15. Stanford (4.44)
16. Miami (4.43)
17. Oklahoma St (4.42)
18. Washington (4.41)
19. Oklahoma (4.40)
20. Oregon (4.36)
21. Baylor (4.36)
22. North Carolina (4.36)
23. Ole Miss (4.31)
24. Arkansas (4.29)
25. Michigan St (4.25)

 

 

 

For the predictions we will predict each Conference Champion, Playoff Teams and the Final CFP rankings (pre-Bowl) and finish it with our Championship game prediction:

 

SF 2016 Predictions:

SEC: Alabama (12-1) over Georgia (9-4)

ACC: FSU (12-1) over UNC (9-4)

Big 12: Oklahoma 10-2

Pac 12: UCLA (11-2) over Stanford (10-3)

Big 10: Ohio St (11-2) over Iowa (8-5)

American: Houston (10-3) over Cincinnati (8-5)

MWC: San Diego St (10-3) over Boise St (8-5)

C-USA: Western Kentucky (10-3) over Southern Miss (9-4)

MAC: Bowling Green (9-4) over Western Michigan (8-5)

Sun Belt: Arkansas St (10-2)

 

Final CFP Top 25 Predictions:

1. Alabama
2. FSU
3. UCLA
4. OU
5. Ohio St
6. Clemson
7. Michigan
8. LSU
9. USC
10. Notre Dame
11. Georgia
12. Tennessee
13. Stanford
14. West Virginia
15. North Carolina
16. Michigan St
17. Oregon
18. Oklahoma St
19. TCU
20. Texas A&M
21. Miami
22. Auburn
23. Washington
24. Ole Miss
25. Louisville

*Alabama and FSU are clearly in with the toughest schedules and most wins against the top 25 (and their losses to top 25 teams). UCLA has a bad loss but overall a tougher schedule than Ohio State and the Champ game over OU. Ohio State has the Championship game over OU, but OU has a head to head win (beating Ohio St earlier in the season) thus they get the nod. It would be a headache for the CFP deciding between those 3 as well as Clemson, LSU, and Michigan in the end. 

 

Contract Bowls:

Rose – Ohio St v USC

Sugar – LSU v West Virginia

Cotton – Michigan v Houston

Orange – Clemson v Notre Dame

 

Playoffs:

Peach – Alabama v Oklahoma

Fiesta – Florida St v UCLA

 

Championship Game in Tampa: Florida State v Oklahoma

 

2016 Champion – Florida State