{"id":385,"date":"2018-07-17T13:01:20","date_gmt":"2018-07-17T17:01:20","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.simplifiedfootball.com\/?p=385"},"modified":"2018-07-17T13:01:20","modified_gmt":"2018-07-17T17:01:20","slug":"look-at-the-playoff-picture-2018","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.simplifiedfootball.com\/look-at-the-playoff-picture-2018\/","title":{"rendered":"Look at the Playoff Picture 2018"},"content":{"rendered":"

As we look at who has made the playoffs in each of the 4 years, you start to see a few patterns.<\/p>\n

    \n
  1. Pattern 1 is that 14 of the 16 teams have had a Win-Share of 8.25 or higher.\n
      \n
    1. ALL have had a Win-Share or higher of 7 (6.99) or higher.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<\/li>\n
    2. Pattern 2 is that 15 of the 16 teams have had a SF Rating of 4.40 or higher.\n
        \n
      1. ALL have had a SF Rating of 4.1 or higher.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<\/li>\n
      2. Pattern 3 is that 15 of the 16 teams finished 19th or higher in the previous seasons final F\/+ Ratings.\n
          \n
        1. ALL of them finished 54th or higher.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<\/li>\n
        2. Pattern 4 is that 14 of the 16 teams had 10 or more wins the previous season.\n
            \n
          1. ALL of them had 7 or more wins the previous season.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

            With that information you start to get a pretty clear picture of who is most likely to be in the playoffs.\u00a0 There has never been more than 1 Outlier team to make the playoffs in a given year. So 3 of the playoff teams will come from the group of teams that meet all criteria, possibly all 4.\u00a0 But all 4 teams will most likely have a Win-Share above 7, a SF rating of 4.1 or higher, finish higher than 54 in the final 2017 season F\/+ ratings, and have 7 or more games in 2017.<\/p>\n

             <\/p>\n

            Tier 1 = Meet all 4 of the higher criteria<\/p>\n

            Tier 2 = Meet at least 1 of the higher criteria and all outlier criteria<\/p>\n

             <\/p>\n

            Here are the teams, listed by Tiers.<\/p>\n

            Tier 1:<\/p>\n

              \n
            1. Clemson<\/li>\n
            2. Penn St<\/li>\n
            3. Ohio St<\/li>\n
            4. Wisconsin<\/li>\n
            5. Oklahoma<\/li>\n
            6. Washington<\/li>\n
            7. Southern California<\/li>\n
            8. Alabama<\/li>\n
            9. Auburn<\/li>\n
            10. Georgia<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

              Tier 2:<\/p>\n

                \n
              1. FSU<\/li>\n
              2. Miami<\/li>\n
              3. Michigan<\/li>\n
              4. Stanford<\/li>\n
              5. Michigan St<\/li>\n
              6. Oklahoma St<\/li>\n
              7. LSU<\/li>\n
              8. Miss St<\/li>\n
              9. UCF<\/li>\n
              10. Notre Dame<\/li>\n
              11. Texas<\/li>\n
              12. Oregon<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

                 <\/p>\n

                There is close to 100% chance that:<\/p>\n

                  \n
                1. 3 of the 4 Playoff teams will come from the first Tier teams<\/li>\n
                2. The National Champion will come from the first Tier teams<\/li>\n
                3. The 2 Championship teams will come from the list of 22 teams.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

                  About a 50% chance that:<\/p>\n

                    \n
                  1. 1 of the Playoff teams will come from the second Tier teams<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

                     <\/p>\n

                    Big Games between Teams on these lists (big time Playoff implications in these games):<\/p>\n

                      \n
                    1. Washington v Auburn (Week 1)<\/li>\n
                    2. Michigan at Notre Dame (Week 1)<\/li>\n
                    3. Miami v LSU (Week 1)<\/li>\n
                    4. Ohio St at Penn St (Week 5)<\/li>\n
                    5. Stanford at Notre Dame (Week 5)<\/li>\n
                    6. Texas v Oklahoma (Week 6)<\/li>\n
                    7. FSU at Miami (Week 6)<\/li>\n
                    8. Auburn at Miss St (Week 6)<\/li>\n
                    9. Washington at Oregon (Week 7)<\/li>\n
                    10. Georgia at LSU (Week 7)<\/li>\n
                    11. Michigan St at Penn St (Week 7)<\/li>\n
                    12. Wisconsin at Michigan (Week 7)<\/li>\n
                    13. Michigan at Michigan St (Week 8)<\/li>\n
                    14. Clemson at FSU (Week 9)<\/li>\n
                    15. Texas at Oklahoma St (Week 9)<\/li>\n
                    16. Stanford at Washington (Week 10)<\/li>\n
                    17. Penn St at Michigan (Week 10)<\/li>\n
                    18. Alabama at LSU (Week 10)<\/li>\n
                    19. Wisconsin at Penn St (Week 11)<\/li>\n
                    20. Auburn at Georgia (Week 11)<\/li>\n
                    21. Ohio St at Michigan St (Week 11)<\/li>\n
                    22. Oklahoma St at Oklahoma (Week 11)<\/li>\n
                    23. FSU at Notre Dame (Week 11)<\/li>\n
                    24. Notre Dame at USC (Week 13 – Rivalry Week)<\/li>\n
                    25. Michigan at Ohio St (Week 13 – Rivalry Week)<\/li>\n
                    26. Auburn at Alabama (Week 13 – Rivalry Week)<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

                      These games will do the most in deciding who will be contending for the Playoffs.\u00a0 Of course a win in one of these games and you get a big boost.\u00a0 A loss can probably be overcome.<\/p>\n

                      Of course you can also add the Conference Championship games which will most likely be between teams on these lists as well (Alabama\/Auburn\/LSU\/Miss St v Georgia, Penn St\/Ohio St\/Michigan\/Mich St v Wisconsin, Clemson\/FSU v Miami, OU\/Texas\/Ok St v each other, Washington\/Stanford\/Oregon v USC).<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

                      As we look at who has made the playoffs in each of the 4 years, you start to see a few patterns. Pattern 1 is that 14 of the 16 teams have had a Win-Share of 8.25 or higher. ALL have had a Win-Share or higher of 7 (6.99) or higher. Pattern 2 is that […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[16],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.simplifiedfootball.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/385"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.simplifiedfootball.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.simplifiedfootball.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.simplifiedfootball.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.simplifiedfootball.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=385"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.simplifiedfootball.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/385\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.simplifiedfootball.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=385"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.simplifiedfootball.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=385"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.simplifiedfootball.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=385"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}