Week 6 Match-ups

The Formula had an excellent week having 6 of 6 games correct.  I unfortunately missed on 2 (Arizona State and South Carolina). That brings my season total to 17-10.

This week we have a LOT of top 25 match-ups.  Every game that we feature this week is between top 25 teams.  In terms of hype this should be the best Saturday of the year.  We should have a much clearer picture of the SEC West after this week, as well as a true test for Oklahoma, Nebraska, and Notre Dame.  The playoff picture will start coming into focus after this week. We should know who the front-runners are. Also for those who like to watch the games, there is a top 25 match-up at all time slots this week.


Texas AM Mississippi St

TAMU – 4.51

MSU – 4.71


Both teams have been playing better than expectations so far this year.  Mississippi State is perhaps the surprise team of the year, especially after their upset of LSU in Death Valley (at night).  TAMU has the talent advantage, but Miss State has the experience advantage.  It is also strength against strength (and weakness against weakness) as TAMU has a very talented Offense and Mississippi State likewise has a very talented defense.  TAMU’s defense and MSU’s offense are not near as talented as their counter-parts.  Texas AM’s offense has lived up to it’s billing and talent and has been on fire with new QB Kenny Hill at the Helm.  Also Mississippi State’s defense has been very good so far this year.  The difference may be that Mississippi State’s offense has out-performed Texas AM’s defense (which is vastly improved). Miss State’s Defensive line should be able to control the Line of Scrimmage and will be the most fearsome thing that Kenny Trill has had to face up to this point. It’s also a home game for Miss St and generally a home game in the SEC is a big deal (more than most places).


Prediction: Texas AM hears too much COW BELL and Miss State pulls off another SEC W Victory 34-31



Alabama Ole Miss

Bama – 4.87

Ole Miss – 4.60


This will be a huge test for Bama QB Sims. Ole Miss has the #1 pass defense in the nation, their DB’s are playing very well and the DL is able to pressure the passer.  Ole Miss has struggled running the ball however.  Alabama’s defensive line should be able to control the LOS and force Ole Miss to throw.  If Ole Miss QB Bo Wallace can have a mistake free game, then Ole Miss has a great chance at home in this game.  However there is little reason to believe that Bo Wallace will actually be able to throw against Bama’s defense.  Alabama so far has looked like the most complete team in the nation, even if they aren’t exactly dominant.


Prediction: Alabama wins a close game 28-24



Oklahoma TCU

OU – 4.85

TCU – 4.34


If there is a team that has looked as complete as Alabama it is Oklahoma (I’ll give the nod to Alabama at this point with a tougher schedule). TCU is finally starting to look like the team it was in the MWC as they have slowly built up their talent levels and built the depth that is needed to win consistently at this level.  I still think TCU is a year away from being able to compete for the Big12 crown.  But they will give OU all they can handle in this one.  If TCU’s fearsome pass defense can force Trevor Knight into some mistakes and slow down the OU rushing attack they will have a great chance at winning this match-up.  OU is going to need to rely on it’s defense to slow down the TCU rushing attack (#1 in S&P) in order to win this game.


Prediction: TCU is able to force Knight into a few mistakes, but OU does just enough to win 24-21



Stanford Notre Dame

Stanford – 4.45

Notre Dame – 4.72


This is a very even match-up and should be another great game just as it always has been.  Stanford’s defense is the #1 defense overall and has been excellent so far this year.  It will be the first test for ND QB Golson.  ND has played a relatively soft schedule so far (as Rice, Michigan and Syracuse have all been disappointing this year and Purdue…is Purdue), and hasn’t faced a defense anywhere close to the caliber of Stanford.  We will have a great idea how legit Notre Dame is this year after Saturday.  Stanford’s offense on the other hand has not been too great so far this year, Particularly their rushing offense has not been able to get going yet.  It is very hard to win on the road without a good running game, regardless of how good your Defense is.  Notre Dame’s talented defensive front should have no problem controlling the line of scrimmage in this game, just as Stanford should limit with Notre Dame’s offense is able to do.


Prediction: Notre Dame has the backing of Touchdown Jesus in this game and wins a tough home game 20-17



LSU Auburn

LSU – 4.52

Auburn – 4.48


This was Auburn’s lone loss last year before running into FSU in the National Championship.  This time LSU has to travel to Auburn and doesn’t get the benefit of the friendly confines of Death Valley.  Auburn has not looked as smooth on offense so far this year as they struggle to find a replacement for Tre Mason at RB. Their defense has improved but they are not elite on that side.  LSU is a very youthful team, but has talent. I expect LSU’s youth on defense struggle to maintain their discipline and Auburn to start finding a rhythm on offense.  LSU will be able to grind out some yards on offense and hit a few big pass plays to keep the game close.  As with most SEC games the deciding factor could be the home-field advantage.


Prediction: Auburn wins a SEC shootout 35-31



Nebraska Michigan State

Nebraska – 4.51

Michigan State – 4.27


Nebraska has been flying high this year behind RB Abdullah, However they have not faced a defense as good as Michigan State (more a statement against their previous opponents).  Michigan State has been winning with offense so far this year, as their young defense gets it’s footing.  Their defense is good, but nowhere near what it was last year (Elite). I expect Nebraska to have success on offense running the ball, however Michigan State should be able to throw it on Nebraska’s average defense as well as run it. Michigan State has the experience advantage and is playing at home. Nebraska will have a few turnovers as Michigan State wins that battle.


Prediction: Michigan State wins 38-28

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