This week I have chosen a bunch of games to preview, I will also pick every game. This is a big week with several top match-ups that will significantly narrow the playoff picture. Aubun, UGA, Clemson, OU, Ohio St, and ND all face opponents that could upset them and knock them out of the playoff race. Although if all of them were to lose (not going to happen) then UGA and Clemson would still remain alive.
This is rivalry week and things happen. There are always a few surprises. I try to cover all the major rivalries (even if the teams aren’t good).
Last week I went 11-4 overall bringing my yearly total to 116-58 (66.7%).
Playoff Picture:
Stays the same as last week
Front Runners = Alabama, Clemson, Miami, Oklahoma, and Wisconsin
Still Alive = Auburn, Georgia, Ohio St, TCU, USC, and ND
Boise St @ Fresno St:
This budding rivalry has mostly been dominated by Boise St, but Fresno St has won enough upsets to warrant the rivalry moniker. Boise has won 4 of the last 5. Both teams are having good but not great seasons and they will meet again next week in the Mountain West Championship game. Which is sure to add to the rivalry game. Both defenses should have the edge in this game. Fresno St has been significantly better at home this year and that is where a few of their upsets have come against Boise St. Fresno’s defense is able to get a few needed stops in the 2nd half to close this game out.
Fresno st 27-24
Territorial Cup (Arizona @ Arizona St):
These teams have split the last 4 match-ups, each winning at home. Both defenses are pretty atrocious and the offenses are good. Arizona has been the better team this year so far. Both teams will be bowl eligible. In a shoot-out I like to go with the better QB, the better defense, or the home team. Arizona St has the better defense, and are at home. So 2 of the 3. In a high scoring game ASU defends it’s home turf.
ASU 41-38
Florida Cup (Florida St @ Florida):
Florida State has won the last 4 games in this match-up and only one of those has been close. Defensively FSU has dominated giving up on average 10 points per game the last 4 games. I wouldn’t expect much difference in this game as both offenses have been putrid this season (bottom third of the nation both of them, and perhaps 2 of the worst in Power 5). However this is one of FSU’s worst defenses in that span, as well as UF’s worst defense as well. Both teams are fighting for bowl eligibility so there should be a lot of fight here. UF would be 5-6 if they won and could apply for a waiver to go to a bowl game. FSU will be 5-6 with a game against Sun Belt conference opponent ULM next week. Both offenses will have trouble in this game and barring a slew of turnovers giving the opposing team short fields this should be very low scoring.
FSU 17-13
Duke @ Wake Forest:
Wake Forest’s offense has been on fire the last few games and they have one of the top passing attacks (efficiency) in the nation. Duke has one of the worst. Both pass defenses are good. Duke will find it tough to score in this match-up and Wake should have little trouble scoring points. Wake wins going away. Knocking Duke from gaining bowl eligibility.
Wake 32-17
Louisville @ Kentucky:
Last year UK surprised everyone and upset top 25 Louisville. Prior to last year Louisville had won 5 straight in the rivalry. Don’t think that Heisman winning Quarterback Lamar Jackson has forgotten about last year. Lamar Jackson has a HUGE day running the ball against UK’s porous run defense. UK’s passing attack is able to keep them in the game for at least a half but Louisville runs away in the 2nd half.
Louisville 41-28
Chancellor’s Spurs (Texas Tech @ Texas):
Texas has dominated this series recently winning 7 of the last 8. But Texas Tech did win the last game in Austin in 2015. Texas Tech needs this win to become bowl eligible. Texas already is. So expect Texas Tech to really come out slinging to go bowling. This is largely a pretty even match-up. Good offense (TT) against good defense (Tex) and Awful offense (Tex) against awful defense (TT). Most of the games in this series recently have been high scoring. This shouldn’t be any different. Texas is able to prevent a game winning TD in the end, knocking TT out of bowl contention.
Texas 37-35
War on I-4 (South Florida @ Central Florida):
USF has won the last 2 match-ups and UCF won the 2 before that. UCF has a very good home crowd and one of the best non-Power 5 atmospheres/home-field advantages. UCF has one of the best offenses going against a very good defense at USF. USF has a good offense and UCF an average defense. On a neutral site this game would be very tough to call. I think UCF puts another feather in it’s cap and jumps up the rankings after this week.
UCF 35-26
Paul Bunyan’s Axe (Wisconsin @ Minnesota):
Wisconsin has won 13 straight in this rivalry. If they were to win this year they would take their first overall lead in this series EVER. Minnesota hasn’t been within 2 scores of Wisconsin in this series since 2009. I don’t think much will change this year. Normally Minnesota in late November has a huge advantage at home with the frigid temperatures. But Wisconsin is used to that and that advantage is negated. When Wisconsin has the ball it should be a good back and forth battle with the Minnesota defense. However Minnesota’s offense is pretty awful and Wisconsin has one of the better defenses (if not the best) in the nation. It will be tough for Minnesota to score in this game.
Wisconsin 28-14
Commonwealth Cup (Virginia Tech @ Virginia):
Virginia Tech has won the last several in this match-up, however UVA is much better this year than they have been (still not very good). Virginia at home will have a chance in this game. Both defenses have been significantly better than their offensive counter parts. So this should be a close defensive battle.
VT 21-17
West Virginia @ Oklahoma:
This game got a lot more interesting with the news that Baker Mayfield will not be starting. If West Virginia can jump out to a big lead and get a few first quarter stops and turn the rest of the game into a shootout then they have a chance. They have the tools and offense to be able to do so. Oklahoma has been pretty bad on defense. They have relied on Baker Mayfield to win games for them this year. West Virginia has been a little better defensively, but they don’t have Baker Mayfield at QB. Grier has been good, but not Mayfield. This will be a high scoring affair, although maybe slightly less so with Mayfield missing time.
Oklahoma 35-34
Apple Cup (Washington St @ Washington):
Since an awful Wash St team pulled off the crazy upset in 2012 Washington has run off 4 straight wins (7 of 8). It’s been a decade since Washington St pulled off the win on the road. The last few games have not been very close. This game features probably the top 2 defenses in the Pac 12. So it will be low-scoring for Pac 12’s sake. I think Browning will be the difference in this game and Washington is able to bottle up Washington State’s offense.
Washington 31-21
Egg Bowl (Ole Miss @ Mississippi St):
Ole Miss leads the overall Series, but Miss St has gotten the best of them in the modern era. Miss St destroyed Ole Miss last year, Ole Miss won the previous 2 years. Ole Miss needs a win to make a bowl game. Same situation as last year. I don’t think the outcome will be much different than it was last year. Miss St is just the better team right now. Ole Miss defense is pretty lowly. Miss St runs away with the game.
Miss st 41-21
Texas A&M @ LSU:
Both teams have under-performed to the level of talent they have this year. However they can both have a successful year with a win this weekend and finish as a top 25 team. This will be a lower scoring game as both defenses have performed better than the offenses. LSU at home should get the advantage and use Death Valley to power them to a win.
LSU 24-20
Palmetto Bowl (Clemson @ South Carolina):
This was the game that Dabo Swinney could never win. His first 5 years South Carolina got the best of him every year. That seems like a distant history as Clemson has rattled off 3 straight wins. South Carolina is significantly better than they have been the last few years however and Clemson has an offense that isn’t performing all that well. Being in Columbus South Carolina will give Clemson all they can handle. However in the end Clemson’s defense will be too much for South Carolina to overcome as they will not be able to get points when needed.
Clemson 28-21
Clean, Old Fashioned Hate (Georgia @ Georgia Tech):
Georgia Tech has not won a home game in this series since 1999. However Georgia Tech has won 2 of the last 3. The last 4 games have all been a 1-score game with 2 of them being Overtime games. If Georgia is unable to stop the Triple Option Paul Johnson offense then it could be another long night for UGA and another close game. I think UGA will struggle to score points and Georgia Tech will keep it close, but UGA is too good and will pull away at the end.
Georgia 24-10
Ohio St @ Michigan:
This is the game that Harbaugh has been unable to win. Came close last year but squandered a chance at the end before losing in Double OT. Ohio St has won the last 5 match-ups and 12 of the last 13. Both defenses have been very good this year. Michigan’s offense has been pretty bad and Ohio State’s has had issues against better defenses. I think those issues will pop up again here, and this will be another defensive battle. Michigan fights valiantly but Harbaugh and Michigan come up short again.
Ohio St 24-21
Legends Trophy (Notre Dame @ Stanford):
Stanford has won 6 of the last 8 match-ups and haven’t lost at home in a decade. The last 5 match-ups have all been decided by 1 score or less. ND has been very good this year and needs a win (and help) to have a chance at the playoffs. A win against Stanford would give them 4 very quality top 25 wins. They would still need a lot of help to have a chance at getting into the playoffs. Stanford and Bryce Love should be able to run the ball on Notre Dame and have plenty of success there. Notre Dame should be able to do the same. Should be a very exciting back and forth game.
Stanford 28-27
Iron Bowl (Alabama @ Auburn):
Alabama has won the last 3 games easily. However the last time Auburn was top 10, they were able to beat Alabama at home. This will be a battle that features a lot of Defensive NFL talent and 2 efficient passing attacks. The offenses won’t beat themselves and the defenses are suffocating. In the end Alabama is able to run the ball better and grind out a win on their way to the SEC championship game against Georgia. The winner will face Georgia next week in the SECCG.
Alabama 21-17
Other Games:
East Mich over Bowling Green
Akron over Kent St
Miami (oh) over Ball St
Toledo over West Mich
Miami over Pitt
TCU over Baylor
NIU over Cent Mich
Navy over Houston
Ohio over Buffalo
Missouri over Arkansas
SDSU over New Mex
Troy over Tex St
Iowa over Nebraska
WKU over FIU
Cal over UCLA
Ok St over Kansas
Memphis over ECU
Purdue over Indiana
UCONN over Cinci
SMU over Tulane
BC over Cuse
N Texas over Rice
UAB over UTEP
App St over Geo St
FAU over Charlotte
Marshall over South Miss
MTSU over ODU
Ark St over ULM
Nevada over UNLV
Penn St over Maryland
NCSU over UNC
Kan St over Iowa St
Mich St over Rutgers
Northwestern over Illinois
Tenn over Vandy
Temple over Tulsa
New Mex St over Idaho
Louisiana over Geo South
Wyoming over San Jose St
Oregon over Oregon St
UTSA over L Tech
Hawaii over BYU
Utah over Colorado
Utah St over Air Force
Have a very Happy Thanksgiving
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