Week 1 Top Match-ups

Last year I finished the season 46-23 on my predictions, that is 67% correct. I will look to improve on that this year. This week there is only 1 match-up between ranked teams, however there are several others that are good match-ups and could figure into the Playoff picture (and several more that do not make the top 6).

 

  1. Washington at Boise St
    • This figures to be one of Boise States most talented teams ever, on the other side Washington has lost a lot of talent over the last few years. Coach Peterson has his work cut out for him there. Despite being a Group of 5 school Boise State is actually the more talented team. Add that to Boise State being at home and I am going with Boise State in this game.
    • Boise State 32 – Washington 24
  2. Louisville vs Auburn
    • Many expect Auburn to have a very explosive offense this season, despite many of their best on offense being gone. They certainly have the talent to reload and not rebuild. Louisville is rebuilding in Coach Petrino’s image and it will be a project. However they do have some talent (some transferred in) on defense and at least in the first half should be able to slow down Auburn’s attack. Auburn’s defense which has been atrocious in the last few years, has one of the top Defensive Coordinators now, and has recruited very well on that side of the ball.  Louisville does not have many play-makers on offense. Auburn will likely give up a few plays on mistakes and I like this game to be close through the first half. Auburn pulls away in the 4th though.
    • Auburn 34 – Louisville 21
  3. Arizona St at Texas A&M
    • Arizona State is a trendy pick to win the Pac 12 and be a playoff team to some experts. I don’t see it. I have them finishing 4th in the Pac 12 South (behind USC, UCLA, and Arizona). Texas A&M I feel could challenge in the SEC if they continue to improve on defense.  Arizona State was torched at times on defense last year, I see that happening again this year and in this game. Expecting a pretty high scoring game in this one. As both offenses out match the defenses. But with the 12th man behind them I have Texas A&M shocking Arizona State.
    • Texas A&M 45 – Arizona State 35
  4. Texas at Notre Dame
    • This Notre Dame team will surprise a lot of people. They are as talented as the squad that took them to the National Championship game a few years ago. Texas is still in the rebuilding process, but they do have a defense that was pretty good last year and should improve even more this year. The difference in this game however will be Texas’ lack of a QB/offense. After this game Notre Dame fans will be clamoring for Everett Golson at QB as Zaire will likely struggle some against a good Texas defense. However being at home, with more weapons and a better QB and more talent gives Notre Dame the advantage still.
    • Notre Dame 28 – Texas 21
  5. Wisconsin vs Alabama
    • Alabama looks as though they are going to have another juggernaut defense and a power running game, however their QB situation is very unsettled and has lots of question marks. Wisconsin is breaking in a new coach, in previous years it has taken them at least half of the season to start to gel and work together with new coaches, although they adjust pretty quickly. The biggest problem in this game is the match-up for Wisconsin. Wisconsin’s strength (it’s power running game) is exactly what Alabama excels at stopping. I don’t expect Wisconsin to have much room to run in this game and relying on Joel Stave to move the ball against Alabama is not a recipe for success. However Alabama’s offense will keep Wisconsin in the game. Look for a lot of running and a low scoring affair.
    • Alabama 28 – Wisconsin 17
  6. Ohio State at Virginia Tech
    • The game Buckeye fans and players alike have been waiting for all summer. REVENGE. Virginia Tech looked like they had derailed Ohio State’s plans at a National Championship run last year, obviously that proved to not be true as they ran the table and won the National Championship. However i’m sure it still stings in Columbus that Tech upset them at home last year. This year they have to travel to Blacksburg to face what is potentially one of the best defenses in the nation. They have a very solid front 7 that uses a lot of blitz packages to keep offenses on their heels, and perhaps the best Cornerback combo in the nation. Many expect Ohio State to run it all over Virginia Tech. We do not think that will happen, especially with some key WR’s out for Ohio State.  On the other side of the ball is where Virginia Tech has been lacking recently, and this year should be no better. They have not been able to find any consistency on offense in several years. The one thing that will be to their advantage is Ohio State is without perhaps the best defensive player in the nation in Joey Bosa for this game. In the end I expect Ohio State to pull this game out as I just don’t think Virginia Tech will be able to put enough points on the board.
    • Ohio State 24 – Virginia Tech 17

Pac 12 Win Shares

Here are the 2015 Pac 12 Win Shares:

TEAM Total (Pac 12)

NORTH

Oregon 9.55 (7.03)

Stanford 7.01 (5.09)

California 6.96 (4.7)

Oregon St 5.52 (3.57)

Washington 5.54 (3.44)

Washington St 5.46 (3.3)

SOUTH

Southern Cal 9.2 (6.75)

UCLA 8.45 (5.92)

Arizona 7.45 (4.67)

Arizona St 5.97 (3.84)

Utah 4.71 (3.11)

Colorado 4.47 (2.58)

 

Have USC and Oregon running away with their respective divisions and facing off in the Championship game. USC is favored in that game with a .55 Win Share.

Notes: We think this is going to be a down year overall for the Pac 12, which means there is a good chance that the Pac 12 champ will be in the playoff. 

2014 Pac12 Preview

The Pac12 in 2013 made a claim to rival the SEC as the best conference in the land.  This year they are starting out with many top 25 teams, and look to again make a strong claim as the top conference.  We believe that they are are good as the SEC through the top 7 teams as the SEC, but the bottom is not as strong as the SEC. There should be 2 team races for each of the division titles as Oregon and Stanford battle it out in the North (with Washington as a dark horse) and USC and UCLA battling it out in the South (with the Arizona schools as dark horses). If one of the teams can make it through the Pac 12 with only 1 loss, we look for that team to be in the Playoffs.

 

On to the preview:

North

OREGON:

Overall Rating – 4.90

PAC 12 Win Share – 7.03 (Total of 9.91)

STANFORD:

Overall Rating – 4.65

PAC 12 Win Share – 5.91 (Total of 8.47)

WASHINGTON:

Overall Rating – 4.30

PAC 12 Win Share – 4.97 (Total of 8.59)

OREGON STATE:

Overall Rating – 3.82

PAC 12 Win Share – 3.62 (Total of 6.09)

WASHINGTON STATE:

Overall Rating – 3.69

PAC 12 Win Share – 2.84 (Total of 5.15)

CALIFORNIA:

Overall Rating – 3.58

PAC 12 Win Share – 2.40 (Total of 4.04)

 

 

South

UCLA:

Overall Rating – 4.70

PAC 12 Win Share – 6.24 (Total of 8.54)

USC:

Overall Rating – 4.54

PAC 12 Win Share – 6.02 (Total of 8.38)

ARIZONA STATE:

Overall Rating – 4.27

PAC 12 Win Share – 4.74 (Total of 7.07)

ARIZONA:

Overall Rating – 4.15

PAC 12 Win Share – 4.54 (Total of 7.13)

UTAH:

Overall Rating – 3.94

PAC 12 Win Share – 3.50 (Total of 5.57)

COLORADO:

Overall Rating – 3.47

PAC 12 Win Share – 2.19 (Total of 4.29)

 

We have Oregon playing UCLA in the championship game, with Oregon winning and making it to the Playoff.

 

 

Top 5 Offenses:

Oregon

Arizona

Arizona State

Washington

Stanford

Top 5 Defenses:

USC

Stanford

Oregon

UCLA

Washington

Storylines to watch for:

  1. Will Marcus Mariotta and Brett Hundley stay healthy and perform to the expectations?
  2. How will Chris Peterson do at a Major FBS program (Washington)?
  3. Will Stanford’s defense be able to replace the backbone of the #Partyinthebackfield?
  4. Will this be the year that Oregon finally breaks through and wins a National Championship?
  5. Will Mike Leach take Washington’s States offense to the next level and create an offensive juggernaut?

PAC 12 – 2013 SF Power Ratings

Here are the 2013 Simplified Football Power ratings for the PAC 12 conference.

North
Washington – 4.26
Oregon – 4.25
California – 4.06
Stanford – 4.05
Oregon St – 3.94
Washington St – 3.45

South
USC – 4.91
UCLA – 4.22
Utah – 3.75
Arizona St – 3.74
Arizona – 3.70
Colorado – 3.50

The Pac 12 North is considerably stronger than the South is. I compare the Pac12 to the ACC. One division with 2 strong teams and a bunch of weaker teams (ACC – Atlantic), One division with a lot of good teams (about as strong as the 2nd best team in the other division).