What seemed like a pedestrian week 3, turned out to be a very interesting week. Upsets, exciting finishes, and dominating performances. Pretty much anything a College Football could want out of a weekend. The biggest story line was Clemson demolishing Louisville and all but knocking them out of the Playoff contention, as well as severely hamstringing Lamar Jackson’s chances at repeating. Clemson cemented themselves as a team that is not going away after their Championship season. They are the real deal. You also had 3 undefeated Group of 5 teams that had good wins over Power 5 conference teams, that should make the race for the Group of 5 at large NY6 bid very interesting. Especially with a few more opportunities this weekend (Houston v Texas Tech and UCF v Maryland).
This week has 2 marquee match-ups and a few other interesting match-ups featuring highly ranked teams on the road against decent teams. Which is always a recipe for an upset. As always I will have each conference represented in these predictions as well as at least 1 Group of 5 team.
Last week went 4-2 with the big picks and 9-5 overall. Bringing the season record to 8-4 and 19-9.
This week’s picks:
North Carolina St @ Florida St
FSU has had a 2 week lay-off after the loss to Alabama, and essentially had a 2nd pre-season camp. NC St is 2-1, losing to it’s only P5 competition. NC St game is often circled and feared by the FSU fans, but that is usually reserved just for the games at NC St. FSU has owned this mini-rivalry series at FSU. NC St has an above average Offense and a very stout Defensive Front. However their Defensive backfield leaves a LOT to be desired. BUT FSU is starting a True Freshman in his first game ever. If James Blackman has a decent day this one could get ugly quick. While NC St’s offense has looked ok this year, it is not a match for FSU’s defense which is elite. NC St hasn’t scored over 17 points in their last 3 visits to Tallahassee (including Jacoby Brissett as their starting QB in one of them). I would expect more than that out of NC St. FSU’s WRs should have plenty of space to operate if Blackman can get them the ball. Look for him to have a good debut against the porous NC St secondary. While they have a decent game on the ground.
Florida State 31 – NC State 17
Penn St @ Iowa
Ames is always a tough place to play and thus I think this game will be closer than some will tend to think. Although I think Penn St will win easily in the end. Iowa’s defense has not looked to spectacular this year and will have difficulties stopping Penn St. Penn St should have no issue running or throwing on Iowa. But Iowa could have some success throwing on Penn St, who’s defense I am not sold on. Barkley has a field day and cements himself as a heisman candidate.
Penn St 38 – Iowa 17
TCU @ Oklahoma St
Both of these teams have looked fantastic this year, albeit against less than stellar competition. Big 12 looks to be a 3 team race, although I think Texas will end up having something to say about that. This game will decide who the 2nd favorite is after OU. It could also decide which of the Big 12 teams could potentially be a non-conference champion that sneaks into the playoffs (as a 2nd Big 12 team…still a possibility). The running games look to cancel each other out as TCU’s run offense is about equal to Ok St’s run defense and vice versa. However where this game gets interesting is in the passing attacks. Both teams have very good passing attacks going against mediocre pass defenses. Look for a high scoring shootout. Oklahoma St should pull it out in the end with the better QB and being at home.
Oklahoma St 41 – TCU 38
UCF @ Maryland
With Maryland’s big win over Texas in week 1 and a pretty weak big 10 (after the big 4 teams), Maryland could be the 5th best team in the Big 10 and finish with a good record. So a win here could be big for UCF and the AAC’s prospects. Maryland should have no issues throwing the ball on UCF. Maryland has shown to be quite a good offensive team and UCF’s defense didn’t look that great in their game. Maryland should have great success running the ball particularly against UCF. On the other side UCF should be able to throw it on Maryland with what looks like a very good passing attack against a lack-luster Maryland passing defense. If UCF isn’t able to throw it on Maryland it could be a long day. However I think they will be able to throw it on them with ease. I like UCF to pull off the upset.
UCF 38 – Maryland 35
Washington @ Colorado
Washington has not looked overly impressive to me so far this year. Still a very good team, just don’t think they are as good as last year. However the absolutely demolished Colorado on a neutral field last year and exposed them. Colorado I am also not impressed with thus far. I think the home field advantage will keep this game very close. Neither team is able to establish much of the rush this game and Washington gets the advantage in the passing attack. Washington wins a close game.
Washington 30 – Colorado 24
Mississippi St @ Georgia
This game looks like it may be a battle for the #2 team in the SEC. Fitzgerald has looked very good so far this year at QB for Miss St and UGA is starting a Freshman that has struggled. After Miss St was able to completely shut down LSU’s rushing attack their defense looks legit. They will look to shut down UGA’s rushing attack and force them to beat them through the air. I don’t think UGA will be up to the task. However UGA’s defense has been legit in both aspects, so I don’t expect Miss St to be able to run it up like they did against LSU. Miss St will be coming down after a huge win over LSU. As we know it’s always tough to follow up wins like that with wins on the road against good teams. I think UGA’s defense and home field advantage will be a lot for Miss St to overcome, but I think they do in the end.
Miss St 21 – Georgia 17
Other Notable Games:
Houston over Texas Tech
Arkansas over Texas A&M
Georgia Tech big over Pitt
UNC over Duke
Purdue over Michigan
Florida over Kentucky
ND over Mich St
Stanford over UCLA
Boise St over UVA
Arizona over Utah
Simplified Football Playoff picks:
1-Alabama
2-Clemson
3-Penn St
4-Oklahoma
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