Sorry I was not able to get my picks the last 2 weeks. Was busy week 9 and Word-press was not letting me on last week. Just to let you know my picks last week were:
FSU 31 – Louisville 21
TCU 49 – West Virginia 42
Auburn 24 – Ole Miss 28
Arizona 34 – UCLA 35
Arkansas 28 – Miss St 41
Utah 30 – Arizona St 31
So I went 5-1. Bringing my season total to 34-17.
This week we have 6 match-ups between top 20 teams (really top 17). So there should be some good games and a LOT of shake-up in the top 20.
Baylor @ Oklahoma
Baylor – 4.37
Oklahoma – 4.75
Oklahoma has had some real stinkers in big games this year. But Oklahoma is still a very talented team. Baylor has been inconsistent on offense and defensively they still aren’t anything to write home about, despite their improvement on that side. Oklahoma’s offense should have some success on the ground and in the air in situations. As long as Oklahoma can control the tempo of the game and play ahead, they should be able to control the game. If Baylor can jump out to an early lead and force Oklahoma to throw and play from behind, then the game will fall into their favor.
Prediction: Oklahoma is able to control the LOS and the game and win 38-31
Notre Dame @ Arizona State
ND – 4.4
ASU – 4.2
In a game that will essentially eliminate the loser from playoff contention, expect both teams to give it their best effort. This one should be a battle. Golson should be able to do what he wants against the Arizona St pass defense, as should Taylor for Arizona State. On a neutral field I would take ND going away, but the game is at Arizona State, and strange things can happen when East Coast teams travel to the West Coast. So Arizona State will keep this one close at home.
Predictions: Notre Dame keeps their hopes alive 30-28
Kansas State @ TCU
KSU – 4.33
TCU – 4.82
Kansas State is one of the most well-coached teams in the nation and TCU finally has the talent to play with the big boys of the Power-5 conferences on a weekly basis. Just like ND/ASU this is another elimination game (for all intents and purposes). Kansas State will have trouble moving the ball against Kansas St, but with Bill Snyder, they should be able to get enough to at least keep it a close game. TCU should be able to have success on the ground against Kansas State who does have a good rush defense. In the end I think TCU’s home field advantage should be the difference.
Prediction: TCU wins 35-24 and moves into 1st place in the Big12 by themselves (with the Baylor loss).
Alabama @ LSU
Alabama – 5.12
LSU – 4.66
Alabama has looked a LOT better since the Arkansas game, however LSU has seemingly turned the corner with their young defense and running game. I think this game is going to be pretty similar to the 2011 game, although with slightly more offense. It is a night game in Death Valley, which is the best home field advantage in the nation. It’s hard to envision LSU losing to home night games in one season (losing to Miss St earlier in the year). However I think LSU’s pass defense will be able to force Simms into a few turnovers and they will slow down the running game enough as their pass offense is able to put a few drives together on a few big plays.
Prediction: Alabama goes to Death Valley and loses a defensive battle to LSU 17-20
Ohio State @ Michigan State
OSU – 4.72
MSU – 4.52
Ohio State has really started to roll lately as has Michigan State. This is another elimination game as the loser is almost assuredly done and the winner will have a great shot at making the playoffs and winning the Big10. Both teams have a defense and offense that is ranked in the top 20 by almost any measure. I have gone back and forth on who to pick in this game. It should be a great battle as both teams try to make a claim they belong in the playoff. In the end I think Michigan State’s home field advantage and Barrett facing a good defense again (first time since VT…Ohio State’s lone loss) should be enough.
Prediction: Michigan State battles to a 28-27 victory over Ohio State
Oregon @ Utah
Oregon – 4.76
Utah – 4.19
Utah is a scrappy team that keeps games close with a tough defense. However Oregon’s offense has been rolling since the OL started getting healthy. I think Oregon’s offense will be too much for Utah in the end. Utah’s offense is not good enough to keep up with Oregon, despite Oregon’s defense not being too great. Playing at home will maybe keep the game close than it would have been otherwise.
Prediction: Oregon runs by Utah 35-21
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