Week 1-2018

August 30, 2018 by Leave a Comment

Last year I was correct on 67% of the picks (both big games and all games). I’ll look to build on that success this year.  Also this year I will also put down the formula’s picks ATS, as well as compare the Formula’s Straight Up picks for all games with my own.

1-Big Games – Games between Ranked opponents, each Power 5 conferences biggest game, and biggest game for Group of 5. Usually will be 6-7 games, sometimes more depending on the quality of match-ups. Will usually include some kind of write-up and score prediction.

2-All Games – The Rest of the games between FBS opponents.

All Games will include The Formula’s pick Straight up and ATS, as well as My own picks.

 

Big Games:

Lot of big games in week 1, as is usually the case with a lot of Prime-Time Out of Conference match-ups. Four games feature ranked opponents facing off, one has a ranked opponent on the road against a quality opponent, and a few other games to round it out.

  1. Florida Atlantic @ 13 Oklahoma (-20.5) – At first glance you may think, why is this game on here.  FAU has a very potent offense with an NFL caliber running back (and lots of Power 5 transfers).  Oklahoma has a very porous defense that doesn’t look to be much better.  FAU returns a lot on both sides of the ball of a very good team. OU loses a heisman winner.  This should be a high scoring affair, and FAU will keep it closer than many would expect.
    1. My Pick – OU 41 – FAU 35 (FAU +20.5)
    2. Formula – Oklahoma SU (FAU +20.5)
  2. 18 Tennessee v West Virginia (-10) – Best match-up for a Big 12 school. Also a very intriguing one.  New coach for Tennessee and a Heisman candidate at QB for WVU.  Will be interesting to see how much success Grier can have against a Pruitt defense.  Pruitt’s defenses at new locations have typically started slow against quality opponents, before hitting stride mid-season (year 1).
    1. My Pick – WVU 31 – Tenn 28 (Tenn +10)
    2. Formula – Tennessee SU (Tenn +10)
  3. San Diego St @ 10 Stanford (-14) – Another game that you might question why is it here.  Last year Stanford went to San Diego and lost 20-17.  This year SDSU travels to Stanford.  Stanford returns a good amount including Heisman candidate at RB. San Diego St was led by their defense and RB last year, much of the defense is gone as is Penny the RB. This game should look significantly different than last year’s Defensive slug-fest.
    1. My Pick – Stanford 34 – SDSU 21 (SDSU +14)
    2. Formula – Stanford SU (Stanford -14)
  4. 8 Washington v 7 Auburn (-2) – Perhaps the biggest game of the day.  Both were in the Playoff Hunt last year and look to be in it again this year. Washington is the favorite for the Pac 12 Championship, and Auburn is one of the better teams in the SEC (will come down to their game against Alabama, again).  Both teams return a lot from last year’s very good teams. Particularly on offense.  Both teams have been prolific defensively the last several years and inconsistent offensively.  This game will come down to which offense can find consistency.
    1. My Pick – Auburn 27 – Washington 24 (Auburn – 2)
    2. Formula – Auburn SU (Washington +2)
  5. Boise St (-10.5) @ Troy – Boise St is not ranked by SF, but they are ranked in both media polls.  Should be 2 of the better Group of 5 teams. Boise St is very well balanced and Troy despite losing a bunch should still have a quality defense, and make a run at the Sun Belt championship.
    1. My Pick – Boise St 28 – Troy 24 (Troy +10.5)
    2. Formula – Boise St SU (Troy +10.5)
  6. 9 Michigan @ 19 Notre Dame (-1) – The old rivalry is back. They have been playing this game since 1887 mostly yearly (with a few hiatus’). They haven’t played since 2014 when ND moved their sports to the ACC. The 5th year seniors have faced off once with Notre Dame winning by 31, but a LOT has changed since then. ND returns a good amount of players off of a top 15 team. Michigan returns a good amount as well, but has recruited very well over the last several years.  Both defenses should be top 20 defenses, with ND having the better offense, although that remains to be seen with Harbaugh now having a quality QB.
    1. My Pick – Notre Dame 21 – Michigan 17 (ND -1)
    2. Formula – Michigan SU (Michigan +1)
  7. 23 Miami (-3.5) v 14 LSU – Both teams had good defenses last year, albeit in different ways. Miami was a big play defense that you could move the ball on, LSU was tough to move the ball on. LSU is adept at running the ball, although they lost star RB Derrius Guice. Miami had a balanced offense a year ago. Both Quarterbacks leave a lot to be desired.  I think Miami’s defense will come back down to earth this year and not create so many turnovers, although they will be tougher to move the ball against. However in game 1 against LSU I think we will see the Turnover Chain a decent amount.
    1. My Pick – Miami 24 – LSU 17 (Miami -3.5)
    2. Formula – LSU SU (LSU +3.5)
  8. Virginia Tech @ 5 FSU (-7.5) – Lot of unknowns in this game. How will FSU look with new coach and new schemes? How will VT do on defense with so many suspensions and departures? The new staff at FSU and huge shift in culture should create a lot of buzz and excitement in game 1. Should see a vastly improved FSU team over last years 7-6 team. Would be foolish to expect VT to fall to far with Fuente/Foster manning the helm, should still put together a borderline top 25, 8+ win season.
    1. My Pick – FSU 31 – VT 21 (FSU -7.5)
    2. Formula – FSU SU (FSU -7.5)

The Rest:

  1. Appalachian St @ 3 Penn St
    1. My Pick – Penn St SU (Penn St -23.5)
    2. Formula – Penn St SU (PSU -23.5)
  2. Wake Forest @ Tulane
    1. My Pick – Wake SU (Wake -6)
    2. Formula – Wake SU (Wake -6)
  3. Syracuse @ Western Michigan
    1. My Pick – Cuse SU (Cuse -5)
    2. Formula – Cuse SU (Cuse -5)
  4. Army @ Duke
    1. My Pick – Duke SU (Army +13.5)
    2. Formula – Duke SU (Duke -13.5)
  5. UMASS @ BC
    1. My Pick – BC SU (BC -18)
    2. Formula – BC SU (BC -18)
  6. UNC @ Cal
    1. My Pick – Cal SU (Cal -7.5)
    2. Formula – Cal SU (Cal -7.5)
  7. Louisville @ 1 Alabama
    1. My Pick – Bama SU (UL +24.5)
    2. Formula – Bama SU (UL +24.5)
  8. 24 UCF @ UCONN
    1. My Pick – UCF SU (UCONN +23.5)
    2. Formula – UCF SU (UCF -23.5)
  9. Houston @ Rice
    1. My Pick – Houston SU (Rice +25.5)
    2. Formula – Houston SU (Rice +25.5)
  10. Cincinnati @ 25 UCLA
    1. My Pick – UCLA SU (UCLA -15)
    2. Formula – UCLA SU (UCLA – 15)
  11. SMU @ North Texas
    1. My Pick – SMU SU (SMU -4.5)
    2. Formula – SMU SU (SMU -4.5)
  12. Navy @ Hawaii
    1. My Pick – Navy SU (Navy -11)
    2. Formula – Navy SU (Navy -11)
  13. 17 Texas v Maryland
    1. My Pick – Texas SU (Texas -13.5)
    2. Formula – Texas SU (Maryland +13.5)
  14. Ole Miss v Texas Tech
    1. My Pick – Ole Miss SU (Ole Miss +2.5)
    2. Formula – Ole Miss SU (Ole Miss +2.5)
  15. New Mexico St @ Minnesota
    1. My Pick – Minnesota SU (Minn – 21)
    2. Formula – Minnesota SU (Minn -21)
  16. Northwestern @ Purdue
    1. My Pick – Purdue SU (Purdue -1)
    2. Formula – Northestern SU (Northwestern +1)
  17. Utah St @ 20 Michigan St
    1. My Pick – MSU SU (USU +23.5)
    2. Formula – MSU SU ( USU +23.5)
  18. Western Kentucky @ 6 Wisconsin
    1. My Pick – Wisc SU (Wisc -34)
    2. Formula – Wisc SU (Wisc -34)
  19. Oregon St @ 11 Ohio St
    1. My Pick – Ohio St SU (Oregon St +38.5)
    2. Formula – Ohio St SU (Oregon St +38.5)
  20. Kent St @ Illinois
    1. My Pick – Illinois SU (Ilini -16.5)
    2. Formula – Illinois SU (Kent St +16.5)
  21. Texas St @ Rutgers
    1. My Pick – Rutgers SU (Texas St +16)
    2. Formula – Rutgers SU (Texas St +16)
  22. Northern Illinois @ Iowa
    1. My Pick – Iowa SU (NIU +10.5)
    2. Formula – Iowa SU (Iowa -10.5)
  23. Indiana @ FIU
    1. My Pick – Indiana SU (Ind -10.5)
    2. Formula – Indiana SU (Ind -10.5)
  24. Akron @ Nebraska
    1. My Pick – Nebraska SU (Nebraska -24.5)
    2. Formula – Nebraska SU (Akron +24.5)
  25. Marshall @ Miami (Oh)
    1. My Pick – Marshall SU (Marshall -2.5)
    2. Formula – Marshall SU ( Marshall -2.5)
  26. Old Dominion
    1. My Pick – ODU SU (ODU -7)
    2. Formula – ODU SU (ODU -7)
  27. Louisiana Tech @ South Alabama
    1. My Pick – USA SU (USA +10.5)
    2. Formula – LT SU (USA +10.5)
  28. Middle Tennessee St @ Vanderbilt
    1. My Pick – MTSU SU (MTSU +3)
    2. Formula – Vandy SU (MTSU +3)
  29. UTSA @ Arizona St
    1. My Pick – ASU SU (ASU -18.5)
    2. Formula – ASU SU (ASU -18.5)
  30. BYU @ Arizona
    1. My Pick – Arizona SU (BYU +12)
    2. Formula – Arisona SU (BYU +12)
  31. Central Michigan @ Kentucky
    1. My Pick – Kentucky SU (Kentucky -17)
    2. Formula – Kentucky SU (CMU +17)
  32. Bowling Green @ Oregon
    1. My Pick – Oregon SU (Oregon -32)
    2. Formula – Oregon SU (Oregon -32)
  33. Colorado @ Colorado St
    1. My Pick – CU SU (CU -7.5)
    2. Formula – CU SU (CU -7.5)
  34. Washington St @ Wyoming
    1. My Pick – Wyoming SU (Wyoming +1)
    2. Formula – WSU SU (WSU -1)
  35. UNLV @ USC
    1. My Pick – USC SU (USC -26.5)
    2. Formula – USC SU (USC – 26.5)
  36. Coastal Carolina @ South Carolina
    1. My Pick – So Car SU (So Car -29.5)
    2. Formula – So Car SU (CC +29.5)

 

Have fun watching the games! Isn’t it great to have Football Back!!??!!

Filed Under: 2018 Games

SEC coach Rankings

August 9, 2018 by Leave a Comment
  1. Nick Saban – Alabama
  2. Dan Mullen – Florida
  3. Jimbo Fisher – Texas AM
  4. Kirby Smart – Georgia
  5. Gus Malzahn – Auburn
  6. Ed Orgeron – LSU
  7. Mark Stoops – Kentucky
  8. Barry Odom – Missouri
  9. Will Muschamp – Florida
  10. Matt Luke – Ole Miss
  11. Derek Mason – Vanderbilt
  12. Chad Morris – Arkansas

Unranked:

Joe Moorhead – Mississippi St

Jeremy Pruitt – Tennessee

Filed Under: SEC

Pac 12 Coach Rankings

August 9, 2018 by Leave a Comment
  1. David Shaw – Stanford
  2. Chris Peterson – Washington
  3. Clay Helton – USC
  4. Mike Leach – Washington St
  5. Kevin Sumlin – Arizona
  6. Kyle Whittingham – Utah
  7. Justin Wilcox – Cal
  8. Mike Macintyre – Colorado

Not Ranked (First year coaching in last 5 years)

Chip Kelly – UCLA

Jonathan Smith – Oregon St

Herm Edwards – Arizona St

Mario Cristobal – Oregon

Filed Under: Pac 12

Big 12 Coach Rankings

August 9, 2018 by Leave a Comment
  1. Lincoln Riley – Oklahoma
  2. Tom Herman – Texas
  3. Gary Patterson – TCU
  4. Mike Gundy – Oklahoma St
  5. Bill Snyder – Kansas St
  6. Matt Campbell – Iowa St
  7. Dana Holgorsen – West Virginia
  8. Matt Rhule – Baylor
  9. Kliff Kingsbury – Texas Tech
  10. David Beaty – Kansas
Filed Under: Big 12

Big 10 Coach Rankings

August 9, 2018 by 2 Comments
  1. Mark Dantonio – Michigan St
  2. Urban Meyer – Ohio St
  3. Scott Frost – Nebraska
  4. James Franklin – Penn St
  5. Jeff Brohm – Purdue
  6. Jim Harbaugh – Michigan
  7. Paul Chryst – Wisconsin
  8. Kirk Ferentz – Iowa
  9. PJ Fleck – Minnesota
  10. Pat Fitzgerald – Northwestern
  11. Tom Allen – Indiana
  12. DJ Durkin – Maryland
  13. Chris Ash – Rutgers
  14. Lovie Smith – Illinois
Filed Under: B1G Ten

ACC Coach Ranking

August 9, 2018 by Leave a Comment

See the main coach ranking post for explanation of ranking system.

  1. Dabo Swinney – Clemson
  2. Justin Fuente – Virginia Tech
  3. David Cutcliffe – Duke
  4. Bobby Petrino – Louisville
  5. Mark Richt – Miami
  6. Larry Fedora – UNC
  7. Dave Doeren – NC State
  8. Willie Taggart – FSU
  9. Pat Narduzzi – Pitt
  10. Paul Johnson – GT
  11. Bronco Mendenhall – UVA
  12. Dave Clawson – Wake Forest
  13. Dino Babers – Syracuse
  14. Steve Addazio – Boston College
Filed Under: ACC

Coach Rankings

August 9, 2018 by Leave a Comment

This is a objective measure as we try to have almost everything here at Simplified Football.

There are 3 components that went in to these rankings:

1-Game Coaching.  Using our formula for rating the teams and arriving at Win probabilities we have a formula that says how those teams have done in relation to what they “should” have done based on their talent/experience.

2-Wins.  Both pure wins and Wins Above Replacement (taking the previous years before the coach showed up and after if he has left)

3-Recruiting.  Few aspects here.  Pure Recruiting rankings, recruiting rankings compared to others at school (before and after), and rankings compared to your geographical peers (Power 5 Southern, Power 5 West Coast, Group of 5 Southern, ec).

This is a ranking of what these coaches have done the last 5 years.

Top 25 coaches

  1. Nick Saban (Alabama)
  2. David Shaw (Stanford)
  3. Mark Dantonio (Michigan St)
  4. Urban Meyer (Ohio St)
  5. Dabo Swinney (Clemson)
  6. Chris Peterson (Washington)
  7. James Franklin (Penn St)
  8. Rocky Long (San Diego St)
  9. Dan Mullen (Florida)
  10. Jimbo Fisher (Texas A&M)
  11. Gary Patterson (TCU)
  12. Doc Holliday (Marshall)
  13. Jeff Brohm (Purdue)
  14. Justin Fuente (Virginia Tech)
  15. David Cutcliffe (Duke)
  16. Bobby Petrino (Louisville)
  17. Gus Malzahn (Auburn)
  18. Mark Richt (Miami)
  19. Bryan Harsin (Boise St)
  20. Mike Leach (Texas Tech)
  21. Mike Gundy (Oklahoma St)
  22. Larry Fedora (UNC)
  23. Paul Chryst (Wisconsin)
  24. Kirk Ferentz (Iowa)
  25. Brian Kelly (Notre Dame)

To Note: Coaches who have 1-3  years of HC experience are not included in the above list.  To us it takes at least 4 years to truly see the value of an HC.  However here are the coaches who have coached less than 4 years that would have cracked the top 25.

Mike Norvell (Memphis) – 5th

Lincoln Riley (Oklahoma) – 7th

Scott Frost (Nebraska) – 8th

Tom Herman (Texas) – 12th

Kirby Smart (Georgia) – 16th

Jim Harbaugh (Michigan) – 22nd *his rankings from Stanford are not included*

Butch Davis (FIU) – 23rd *his rankings from UNC/Miami are not included*

Jason Candle (Toledo) – 24th

 

Top 20 Recruiters:

  1. James Franklin
  2. Urban Meyer
  3. Brian Kelly
  4. Nick Saban
  5. Jimbo Fisher
  6. David Shaw
  7. Dabo Swinney
  8. Mark Dantonio
  9. Gus Malzahn
  10. Jim Harbaugh
  11. Mark Stoops
  12. Bryan Harsin
  13. Chris Peterson
  14. Mark Richt
  15. Willie Taggart
  16. Mike Norvell
  17. Tom Herman
  18. Bobby Petrino
  19. Matt Rhule
  20. Larry Fedora

Others who would be top 20:

Kirby Smart (3rd)

Clay Helton (4th)

Luke Fickell (6th)

DJ Durkin (7th)

Scott Frost (8th)

Lincoln Riley (10th)

 

Top 20 Game Coaches:

  1. Ken Niumatalolo
  2. Bill Snyder
  3. Matt Wells
  4. Kirk Ferentz
  5. Jeff Brohm
  6. Scott Satterfield
  7. Chris Peterson
  8. Gary Patterson
  9. Justin Fuente
  10. Mark Dantonio
  11. David Shaw
  12. Dan Mullen
  13. Mike Gundy
  14. Troy Calhoun
  15. Paul Johnson
  16. Paul Chryst
  17. Rod Carey
  18. Matt Rhule
  19. Willie Fritz
  20. Kyle Whittingham

Others who would be on this list:

Mike Norvell (1st)

Jason Candle (4th)

Tom Herman (5th)

Lincoln Riley (9th)

Tom Allen (9th)

Justin Wilcox (16th)

Jeff Tedford (16th)

 

This would not just be X’s and O’s, but also player development, etc. These guys get more out of their players than other coaches do.

 

Again these are objective measures, not my personal rankings.

Filed Under: NCAA

Simplified Football New Years Day Bowl Predictions

August 3, 2018 by Leave a Comment

We have posted the Top 25 Rankings, and each conference prediction.  Here is the College Football Playoff and New Years 6 bowl projections:

Playoffs:

Orange Bowl – #1 Clemson v #4 Washington

Cotton Bowl – #2 Alabama v #3 Penn State

 

New Years Day Bowls:

Rose Bowl – #8 Ohio St v #9 Stanford

Peach Bowl – #11 UCF v # 12 FSU

Fiesta Bowl – #7 Auburn v #10 Wisconsin

Sugar Bowl – #5 Oklahoma v #6 Georgia

 

National Champ (Bay Area, CA) – Clemson v Alabama

National Champ = Clemson

Filed Under: AAC, ACC, B1G Ten, Big 12, NCAA, Pac 12, SEC

Simplified Football Formula

August 3, 2018 by Leave a Comment

This is a formula that Jason Staples and myself have been working on over the last 5 years.  It has many layers to it, and we continue to discuss it and tweak it every off-season.

Here is the basic run-down. Please understand I will not be specific on the numbers as it will divulge too much information on the formula itself, I just want to give the readers something to understand where it is coming from.

  1. The base of the formula comes from the recruiting star ranking. We use the 247 composite ratings (funny side note, before I knew the 247 composite ratings existed I was basically doing that myself using Rivals, Scout, and ESPN rankings.  Thankfully I found 247 composite ratings, that did that work for me) as they are generally the least biased (which is what we are going for).
  2. Once we have the star rating we add in 2 experience ratings: One is how many years they have been in college, and Two is how much starting experience they have. Also there are multipliers depending on positions as well.  The first year in college and the first year starting are generally worth more than subsequent years as well.
  3. We also have multipliers for players that get All-Conference, All-American, Freshman All-American, and individual Award recognition (Heisman, Thorpe, Butkus, etc).
  4. Last we have a multiplier for Coaching/Intangibles.  It is based on previous years performances. IE if a coach typically had his team performing at 7 points higher than what was expected from the formula, then that will go into the next year’s rankings. It is averaged out over 5 years as well.  It also takes into account trends. IE if a coach has year one at -5, year two at -2, year three at 2, and year four at 5, the average will be zero, but the trend would say they would be above 5, so the multiplier would end up closer to the trend than the average.

Regarding the Win-Shares.  Through much meticulous record keeping we were able to figure out how the percentage of how much each team wins given how much “better” they are than the other team.  IE a team that is X amount better than their opponent would be expected to win X% of the time.  This we have calculated both Away and Home.

This formula has no bias in it, it is completely objective.  The predictions do have some of my own bias in it (thus the differences between Win-Shares and predictions).  Thus the Ratings and Rankings are purely objective.  No I do not think FSU is the 5th best team going into the season, but that is objectively what the formula puts out. Nor do I think Florida is 15th, Tennessee 18th, or UCLA 25th. But I do think those teams have the talent capable of putting them in those spots.

Filed Under: NCAA

Group of 5 Conferences Preview and Predictions

July 27, 2018 by Leave a Comment

2017 was probably the best team the Group of 5 has put forth in the Playoff Era. UCF went undefeated and beat Top 10 Auburn in a bowl game.  Still was unable to come close to the playoff.  There is a healthy chance that UCF could be even better in 2018, but with a much more difficult schedule.  If they are able to run the table again they should be looking at a potential playoff spot. Other schools who could fight for that Group of 5 New Years Bowl slot are Memphis, FAU, Boise St, San Diego St, Northern Illinois, and maybe a few others.

 

American Predictions:

East

Team – Record (Conf)  /  Win-Shares (Conf)  /  Rating

  1. Central Florida – 11-1 (7-1)  /  8.72 (5.82)  /  4.29
  2. South Florida – 8-4 (6-2)  /  7.54 (4.73)  /  3.86
  3. Temple – 6-6 (4-4)  /  6.04 (3.91)  /  3.53
  4. ECU – 5-7 (3-5)  /  5.83 (3.58)  /  3.41
  5. Cincinnati – 5-7 (3-5)  /  5.13 (3.18)  /  3.21
  6. UCONN – 4-8 (2-6)  /  4.05 (2.35)  /  2.88

West

Team – Record (Conf)  /  Win-Shares (Conf)  /  Rating

  1. Memphis – 9-3 (6-2)  /  8.19 (5.09)  /  4.12
  2. Houston – 8-4 (5-3)  /  7.84 (5.04)  /  3.86
  3. Navy – 7-5 (4-4)  /  5.71 (3.12)  /  3.34
  4. SMU – 6-6 (4-4)  /  6.5 (3.40)  /  3.70
  5. Tulsa – 5-7 (3-5)  /  5.82 (3.97)  /  3.97
  6. Tulane – 2-10 (1-7)  /  4.43 (2.87)  /  3.20

Memphis and UCF meet again in the AAC championship game. UCF wins the AAC and repeats as the Group of 5 representative in the New Years 6 bowls. Memphis finishes as a borderline top 25 team. 7 teams are bowl eligible.

 

 

MWC Predictions:

Mountain

Team – Record (Conf)  /  Win-Shares (Conf)  /  Rating

  1. Boise State – 9-3 (6-2)  /  8.46 (5.98)  /  4.05
  2. Wyoming – 8-4 (6-2)  /  6.92 (4.72)  /  3.46
  3. Utah St – 7-5 (5-3)  /  6.83 (4.63)  /  3.43
  4. Colorado St – 7-5 (5-3)  /  6.40 (4.55)  /  3.41
  5. Air Force – 4-8 (3-5)  /  5.05 (3.05)  /  3.05
  6. New Mexico – 5-7 (2-6)  /  4.90 (2.75)  /  2.83

West

Team – Record (Conf)  /  Win-Shares (Conf)  /  Rating

  1. San Diego St – 8-4 (6-2)  /  7.30 (5.10)  /  3.59
  2. Fresno St – 7-5 (5-3)  /  6.42 (4.45)  /  3.43
  3. Nevada – 7-5 (5-3)  /  5.82 (3.77)  /  3.18
  4. UNLV – 5-7 (3-5)  /  5.34 (3.44)  /  2.99
  5. San Jose St– 3-9 (1-7 )  /  4.65 (3.05)  /  2.64
  6. Hawaii – 3-9 (1-7 ) /  4.84 (2.51)  /  2.57

Boise St against San Diego St in the MWC Championship game.  Boise St winds up the MWC champions.  MWC ends up with 7 Bowl Eligible teams.

 

 

 

 

CUSA Predictions:

East

Team – Record (Conf)  /  Win-Shares (Conf)  /  Rating

  1. FAU – 9-3 (7-1)  /  8.38 (5.83)  /  4.08
  2. Marshall – 8-4 (6-2)  / 6.70 (4.65)  /  3.53
  3. MTSU – 6-6 (5-3)  /  5.90 (4.35)  /  3.60
  4. FIU – 6-6 (5-3)  / 6.36 (4.16)  /  3.26
  5. Old Dominion – 6-6 (4-4)  /  6.40 (4.10)  /  3.24
  6. Charlotte – 6-6 (3-5)  /  5.67 (3.52)  /  3.32
  7. WKU – 3-9 (1-7)  /  4.10 (2.75)  /  2.52

West

Team – Record (Conf)  /  Win-Shares (Conf)  /  Rating

  1. UAB – 9-3 (6-2)  /  7.98 (5.38)  /  3.63
  2. Southern Miss – 7-5 (5-3)  /  5.90 (4.35)  /  3.17
  3. North Texas – 5-7 (3-5)  /  6.15 (4.00)  /  3.27
  4. UTSA – 4-8 (3-5)  /  4.36 (3.41)  /  2.91
  5. UTEP – 4-8 (3-5)  /  5.50 (3.50)  /  2.89
  6. Rice – 4-8 (3-5)  /  4.62 (2.95)  /  2.70
  7. La Tech – 4-8 (2-6)  /  4.97 (3.20)  /  2.97

FAU runs through the Conference USA and almost pulls off a major upset in Norman. They win against UAB in the CUSA championship game and crack the top 25 poll. 7 teams from CUSA gain bowl eligibility.

 

 

 

MAC Predictions:

East

Team – Record (Conf)  /  Win-Shares (Conf)  /  Rating

  1. Miami (Oh) – 6-6 (5-3)  /  6.47 (4.60)  /  3.36
  2. Akron – 6-6 (5-3)  /  5.81 (4.36)  /  3.33
  3. Ohio – 6-6 (4-4)  /  6.02 (3.75)  /  3.01
  4. Buffalo – 5-7 (3-5)  /  5.84 (3.29)  /  3.08
  5. Bowling Green – 4-8 (3-5)  /  4.50 (3.20)  /  2.77
  6. Kent State – 3-9 (2-6)  /  5.00 (3.75)  /  2.86

West

Team – Record (Conf)  /  Win-Shares (Conf)  /  Rating

  1. Northern Ill – 9-3 (6-2)  /  6.05 (4.92)  /  3.64
  2. Western Mich – 8-4 (6-2)  /  6.91 (4.73)  /  3.35
  3. Central Mich – 6-6 (5-3)  /  6.10 (4.35)  /  3.36
  4. Toledo – 7-5 (5-3)  /  6.38 (4.25)  /  3.38
  5. East Mich – 5-7 (3-5)  /  5.55 (3.60)  /  3.06
  6. Ball St – 3-9 (2-6)  /  4.35 (2.90)  /  2.76

Northern Illinois over Miami (oh) in the MAC championship game.  6 teams gain bowl eligibility.

 

Sun Belt Predictions:

East

Team – Record (Conf)  /  Win-Shares (Conf)  /  Rating

  1. Troy – 10-2 (7-1) / 8.02 (5.70) / 3.72
  2. Appalachian St – 8-4 (6-2) / 7.35 (5.20) / 3.50
  3. Coastal Carolina – 4-8 (3-5) / 5.1 (3.40) / 2.83
  4. Georgia State – 4-8 (3-5) / 4.35 (2.90) / 2.69
  5. Georgia Southern – 4-8 (2-6) / 6.45 (4.15) / 3.13

West

Team – Record (Conf)  /  Win-Shares (Conf)  /  Rating

  1. Arkansas St – 8-4 (6-2) / 6.97 (4.82) / 3.32
  2. La-Monroe – 6-6 (5-3) / 6.06 (4.41) / 3.17
  3. South Alabama – 5-7 (4-4) / 5.13 (3.40) / 2.86
  4. Louisiana – 5-7 (3-5) / 4.97 (3.37) / 2.74
  5. Texas St – 4-8 (2-6) / 4.55 (2.70) / 2.53

In the inaugural Sun Belt Championship game Troy over Arkansas St.  Troy finishes in the top 25. Sun Belt finishes with 4 Bowl Eligible teams.

 

 

Independent Predictions:

Team – Record  /  Win-Shares   /  Rating

  1. Notre Dame – 8-4 / 7.66 / 4.40
  2. Army – 7-5 / 6.71 / 3.19
  3. BYU – 6-6 / 6.60 / 3.74
  4. UMASS – 3-9 / 4.28 / 2.90
  5. New Mexico St – 3-9 / 4.50 / 2.80
  6. Liberty – 3-9 / 4.65 / 2.75

3 independent teams wind up Bowl eligible.  Notre Dame cracks the top 25.

Filed Under: AAC, CUSA, Independents, MAC, MWC, Sun Belt
« Previous Page
Next Page »