AAC Preview and Predictions

For each of the conference Predictions I will put in both the Predicted Finish according to Win-Shares, as well as my own personal predictions (which are largely very similar).

 

AAC Win-Shares

West

 

Houston – 7.97 (5.27)

Tulsa – 5.81 (3.62)

Navy – 5.57 (3.6)

Memphis – 5.43 (3.41)

Tulane – 5.42 (3.22)

Southern Methodist – 4.77 (3.1)

 

East

 

South Florida – 7.66 (5.13)

Cincinnati – 7.67 (4.82)

Central Florida – 6.84 (4.48)

Temple – 6.5 (3.84)

East Carolina – 5.47 (3.78)

Connecticut – 5.92 (3.73)

 

USF over Houston in the AAC championship.

 

 

Simplified Football Predictions

West

 

Houston = 10-2 (7-1)

Navy = 7-5 (4-4)

Memphis = 6-6 (4-4)

Tulsa = 6-6 (3-5)

SMU = 4-8 (2-6)

Tulane = 3-9 (1-7)

 

East

 

Cincinnati = 8-4 (6-2)

USF = 8-4 (6-2)

UCF = 7-5 (4-4)

UCONN = 6-6 (4-4)

ECU = 5-7 (4-4)

Temple = 6-6 (3-5)

 

Houston over Cincinnati in AAC Championship game.

 

 

That is 9 bowl teams for the AAC

Cotton Bowl – Houston

Armed Forces Bowl – Navy

Birmingham Bowl – USF

Military Bowl – Cincinnati

St Petersburg Bowl – UCF

Cure Bowl – UCONN

Boca Raton Bowl – Memphis

Miami Beach Bowl – Tulsa

Bahamas Bowl – Temple

 

Big Ten Preview and Predictions

For each of the conference Predictions I will put in both the Predicted Finish according to Win-Shares, as well as my own personal predictions (which are largely very similar).

 

B1G Win-Shares

East

 

Michigan – 9.68 (6.85)

Ohio St – 8.7 (6.32)

Michigan St – 7.52 (5.4)

Penn St – 6.77 (4.74)

Rutgers – 6.4 (4.4)

Maryland – 5.67 (3.6)

Indiana – 3.42 (1.91)

 

West

 

Minnesota – 7.06 (4.53)

Nebraska – 6.73 (4.46)

Northwestern – 6.79 (4.39)

Wisconsin – 6.47 (4.32)

Purdue – 6.53 (4.23)

Iowa – 6.35 (4.0)

Illinois – 6.53 (3.85)

 

Michigan over Minnesota in the Big Ten championship.

 

The class of the Big Ten once again lies in the East with Ohio St, Michigan, and Michigan St with those 3 battling it out for the division title. Things are about as murky as they can get in the west. With very little separating last place Illinois from first place Minnesota. The Formula says that the West is WIDE OPEN, and any of the 7 teams could win that West division crown. Formula has Minnesota winning it.

 

Simplified Football Predictions

East

 

Ohio St = 10-2 (8-1)

Michigan = 11-1 (8-1)

Michigan St = 9-3 (7-2)

Penn st = 7-5 (5-4)

Rutgers = 4-8 (2-7)

Indiana = 4-8 (2-7)

Maryland = 3-9 (1-8)

 

West

 

Iowa = 8-4 (5-4)

Wisconsin = 7-5 (5-4)

Nebraska = 7-5 (5-4)

Northwestern = 7-5 (4-5)

Minnesota = 7-5 (4-5)

Illinois = 6-6 (4-5)

Purdue = 6-6 (3-6)

 

Ohio St over Iowa in the B1G Conference Championship game.

 

SF has really flipped things up with our predictions in the Big 10. Diverting vastly from the formula. We have Ohio St beating Michigan and thus winning the East and beating the West in the Conference championship, but by virtue of their loss to OU, missing out on the Playoffs. SF has Iowa winning the 3 way tie-breaker between Wisconsin and Nebraska to win the West crown. Should be a very tight race in the West.

 

That is 9 bowl teams for the Big Ten with Illinois and Purdue missing out.

 

Rose Bowl – Ohio St

Cotton Bowl – Michigan

Outback Bowl – Michigan St

Holiday Bowl – Iowa

Music City Bowl – Penn St

Pinstripe Bowl – Wisconsin

Foster Farms – Nebraska

Quick Lane – Northwestern

Heart of Dallas – Minnesota

Pac 12 Preview and Predictions

For each of the conference Predictions I will put in both the Predicted Finish according to Win-Shares, as well as my own personal predictions (which are largely very similar).

 

Pac 12 Win-Shares

North

 

Oregon – 7.96 (5.63)

Stanford – 7.58 (5.38)

Washington – 7.64 (4.92)

Washington St – 5.72 (3.4)

California – 4.72 (3.1)

Oregon St – 4.65 (2.81)

 

South

 

UCLA – 8.78 (6.54)

So California – 7.87 (5.89)

Arizona – 7.56 (4.85)

Arizona St – 6.53 (4.25)

Utah – 6.3 (4.06)

Colorado – 4.77 (3.17)

 

UCLA over Oregon in the Championship game.

 

In the North it appears to be a 3 way race (which much of the media is predicting) between Washington, Oregon, and Stanford. In the South it will come down to UCLA and Southern Cal. Utah takes a significant drop as does Cal after losing the focal point of their offenses.

 

Simplified Football Predictions

North

 

Stanford = 10-2 (7.2)

Oregon = 9-3 (6-3)

Washington = 8-4 (5-4)

Washington St = 6-6 (4-5)

Oregon St = 4-8 (2-7)

California = 4-8 (2-7)

 

South

 

UCLA = 10-2 (8-1)

USC = 9-3 (7-2)

Arizona = 8-4 (5-4)

Utah = 7-5 (4-5)

Arizona St = 6-6 (3-6)

Colorado = 3-9 (1-8)

 

UCLA over Stanford in the Pac 12 Championship game.

 

SF has Stanford finishing ahead of Oregon in the North and the same outcome in the South (UCLA over USC). SF doesn’t have Utah falling as far and still making a bowl game at 7-5. The rest is pretty much as the Formula thinks.

 

That is 8 bowl teams for the Pac 12

Fiesta Bowl – UCLA (Playoff)

 

Rose Bowl – USC

Alamo Bowl – Stanford

Holiday Bowl – Oregon

Foster Farms – Washington

Sun Bowl – Arizona

Las Vegas – Arizona St

Cactus Bowl – Washington St

Big 12 Preview and Predictions

For each of the conference Predictions I will put in both the Predicted Finish according to Win-Shares, as well as my own personal predictions (which are largely very similar).

 

Big 12 Win-Shares

 

West Virginia – 8.39 (5.91)

Oklahoma – 7.82 (5.65)

Oklahoma St – 8.01 (5.46)

TCU – 7.72 (5.28)

Baylor – 8.11 (5.26)

Texas – 7.17 (5.17)

Texas Tech – 6.5 (4.33)

Kansas St – 5.25 (3.4)

Iowa St – 4.33 (2.48)

Kansas – 4.14 (2.06)

 

It looks as if there is going to be a muddle up top with the WVU v OU winner crowned as the Champion. Lot of good teams here.

 

Notice a drop by  Baylor with the loss of quite a few key players as well as the coach, Same with TCU.

 

Simplified Football Predictions

 

OU = 10-2 (7-2)

WVU = 9-3 (6-3)

Oklahoma St = 9-3 (6-3)

TCU = 9-3 (6-3)

Baylor = 8-4 (5-4)

Texas = 7-5 (5-4)

Texas Tech = 7-5 (4-5)

Kansas St = 6-6 (4-5)

Iowa St = 3-9 (1-8)

Kansas = 2-10 (0-9)

 

Here SF has OU topping WVU, that is the only change from the predictions. It’s really a tie between 2-4 (WVU, OSU, and TCU). I got a 10-2 OU taking the last playoff Spot and playing Bama in the Peach Bowl.

 

That is 8 bowl teams for the Big 12

 

Peach Bowl – Oklahoma (Playoff)

Sugar Bowl – West Virginia

Alamo Bowl – Ok State

Russell Athletic – TCU

Texas Bowl – Texas (against TAMU)

Liberty Bowl – Baylor

Cactus Bowl – Texas Tech

Armed Forces – Kansas St

SEC 2016 Preview and Predictions

For each of the conference Predictions I will put in both the Predicted Finish according to Win-Shares, as well as my own personal predictions (which are largely very similar).

 

SEC Win-Shares

West

 

Alabama – 9.41 (5.8)

LSU – 8.94 (5.27)

TAMU – 7.35 (4.75)

Auburn – 7.19 (3.74)

Ole Miss – 6.76 (3.61)

Arkansas – 6.19 (2.97)

Mississippi St – 6.14 (2.79)

 

East

 

Georgia 8.01 (4.67)

Tennessee 7.9 (4.31)

Florida 7.13 (4.0)

South Carolina 6.6 (3.24)

Kentucky 6.33 (3.24)

Missouri 6.24 (3.23)

Vanderbilt 6.01 (3.19)

 

Alabama over Georgia in the SEC championship.

 

Essentially the West will come down to Alabama and LSU winner with the East coming down to the Georgia and Tennessee winner. SEC would have an astonishing 14 teams qualify for bowl games. I can pretty much guarantee you that won’t happen. This is a very strong year for the SEC. With Elite teams and a lot of depth (especially with Vanderbilt catching back up the pack). Most notable things is Missouri and South Carolina falling back to where they traditionally have been in the SEC pecking order.

 

Simplified Football Predictions

West

 

Alabama = 11-1 (7-1)

LSU = 10-2 (6-2)

Ole Miss = 8-4 (5-3)

TAMU = 8-4 (4-4)

Auburn = 8-4 (4-4)

Miss St = 7-5 (3-5)

Arkansas = 6-6 (3-5)

 

East

 

Georgia = 9-3 (5-3)

Tennessee = 9-3 (5-3)

Florida = 7-5 (4-4)

USCe = 7-5 (4-4)

Kentucky = 6-6 (3-5)

Missouri = 6-6 (3-5)

Vanderbilt = 4-8 (1-7)

 

Alabama over UGA in the SEC Champ

 

SF has the same SEC Champ game match up and outcome. A few notable differences is Ole Miss performing better than Win-Shares indicate as well as a few slight differences in the standings with teams like Auburn, Miss St, and Arkansas.

 

That is 13 bowl teams for the SEC

 

Peach Bowl – Alabama (Playoff)

Sugar Bowl – LSU

Citrus Bowl – Georiga

Outback Bowl – Tennessee

Liberty Bowl – Ole Miss

Belk Bowl – Auburn

Texas Bowl – TAMU

Music City – UF

Tax Slayer – USCe

Birmingham Bowl – Miss St

Independence – UK

St Pete – Arkansas

Heart of Dallas – Missouri

ACC Preview and Predictions

For each of the conference Predictions I will put in both the Predicted Finish according to Win-Shares, as well as my own personal predictions (which are largely very similar).

 

ACC Win-Shares

Atlantic

FSU – 9.51 (6.3)

Clemson – 8.77 (5.63)

Louisville – 6.92 (4.18)

NC State – 6.48 (3.63)

Boston College – 6.24 (2.98)

Wake Forest – 6.02 (2.78)

Syracuse – 4.49 (2.31)

 

Coastal

Miami – 8.4 (5.18)

North Carolina – 7.45 (4.46)

Virginia Tech – 6.42 (4.11)

Pitt – 6.78 (3.98)

Virginia – 6.24 (3.59)

Duke – 6.01 (3.57)

Georgia Tech – 5.77 (3.3)

 

FSU over Miami in the ACC championship.

 

FSU and Clemson both round to 6, which would mean that the Atlantic Division winner will come down to the FSU v Clemson winner (pretty obvious). Also shows FSU and Clemson as the best 2 teams in the ACC. Also pretty obvious. It also shows over years past that Duke continues to improve, and that Boston College should have a good bounce back year (after winning only 1 game that shouldn’t be very hard).

 

Simplified Football Predictions

Atlantic

FSU – 11-1 (7-1)

Clemson – 11-1 (7-1)

Louisville – 8-4 (5-3)

NC State – 6-6 (3-5)

Boston College – 5-7 (3-5)

Wake Forest – 5-7 (2-6)

Syracuse – 3-9 (1-7)

 

Coastal

UNC – 9-3 (6-2)

Miami – 8-4 (5-3)

Duke – 7-5 (5-3)

Pitt – 7-5 (4-4)

GT – 7-5 (4-4)

VT – 5-7 (3-5)

UVA – 5-7 (2-6)

 

FSU over UNC in the ACC Champ

 

SF has UNC finishing ahead of Miami and Duke finishing above what is expected. Atlantic remains the same.  I expect a largely better year for the ACC as FSU and Clemson will be top 10 teams. Louisville, UNC, and Miami should all challenge for or be top 25 teams. Pitt, Duke and GT will likely be teams that receive votes and at some point in the year will be ranked, but not finish there.

 

That is 9 bowl teams for the ACC

Fiesta Bowl – FSU (Playoff)

Orange Bowl – Clemson

Russell Athletic Bowl – UNC

Belk Bowl – Louisville

PinStripe Bowl – Miami

Sun Bowl – Pittsburgh

Tax Slayer Bowl – GT

Camping World – Duke

Quick Lane Bowl – NC State

Simplified Football 2016 Season Preview

Well I hope everyone is ready for the 2016 season! I know we here at Simplified Football sure are. It’s year 3 of the playoff system and there is sure to be a lot of controversy and discussion and twists and turns this season. We’ll start this season off with a Power Poll of the top 25 Rated teams, as well as a prediction of the final Top 25 and Conference Champions. The Power Poll is just a ranking of how our formula rates each team based off of talent, experience, and past performance relative to their talent and experience.

Last season’s Top rated team was Alabama. Who ended up winning the National Title. Michigan State was 5th and Clemson was top 25. Only Oklahoma last year was outside of the Pre-season top 25. 2014 We correctly predicted 3 of the Playoff Teams (FSU, Oregon, and Alabama), with the 4th team being the Big 10 champ who we predicted as Wisconsin instead of Ohio St (We correctly had Wisconsin and Ohio St in the Big 10 Champ game, just incorrectly predicted the winner).

 

SF Pre-Season Top 25:

  1. Alabama (4.96)
  2. FSU (4.84)
  3. LSU (4.83)
  4. Michigan (4.69)
  5. UCLA (4.62)
  6. Texas A&M (4.56)
  7. Southern Cal (4.55)
  8. Notre Dame (4.54)
  9. Ohio St (4.54)
  10. Auburn (4.52)
  11. Clemson (4.51)
  12. West Virginia (4.50)
  13. Georgia (4.45)
  14. Tennessee (4.44)
  15. Stanford (4.44)
  16. Miami (4.43)
  17. Oklahoma St (4.42)
  18. Washington (4.41)
  19. Oklahoma (4.40)
  20. Oregon (4.36)
  21. Baylor (4.36)
  22. North Carolina (4.36)
  23. Ole Miss (4.31)
  24. Arkansas (4.29)
  25. Michigan St (4.25)

 

 

 

For the predictions we will predict each Conference Champion, Playoff Teams and the Final CFP rankings (pre-Bowl) and finish it with our Championship game prediction:

 

SF 2016 Predictions:

SEC: Alabama (12-1) over Georgia (9-4)

ACC: FSU (12-1) over UNC (9-4)

Big 12: Oklahoma 10-2

Pac 12: UCLA (11-2) over Stanford (10-3)

Big 10: Ohio St (11-2) over Iowa (8-5)

American: Houston (10-3) over Cincinnati (8-5)

MWC: San Diego St (10-3) over Boise St (8-5)

C-USA: Western Kentucky (10-3) over Southern Miss (9-4)

MAC: Bowling Green (9-4) over Western Michigan (8-5)

Sun Belt: Arkansas St (10-2)

 

Final CFP Top 25 Predictions:

  1. Alabama
  2. FSU
  3. UCLA
  4. OU
  5. Ohio St
  6. Clemson
  7. Michigan
  8. LSU
  9. USC
  10. Notre Dame
  11. Georgia
  12. Tennessee
  13. Stanford
  14. West Virginia
  15. North Carolina
  16. Michigan St
  17. Oregon
  18. Oklahoma St
  19. TCU
  20. Texas A&M
  21. Miami
  22. Auburn
  23. Washington
  24. Ole Miss
  25. Louisville

*Alabama and FSU are clearly in with the toughest schedules and most wins against the top 25 (and their losses to top 25 teams). UCLA has a bad loss but overall a tougher schedule than Ohio State and the Champ game over OU. Ohio State has the Championship game over OU, but OU has a head to head win (beating Ohio St earlier in the season) thus they get the nod. It would be a headache for the CFP deciding between those 3 as well as Clemson, LSU, and Michigan in the end. 

 

Contract Bowls:

Rose – Ohio St v USC

Sugar – LSU v West Virginia

Cotton – Michigan v Houston

Orange – Clemson v Notre Dame

 

Playoffs:

Peach – Alabama v Oklahoma

Fiesta – Florida St v UCLA

 

Championship Game in Tampa: Florida State v Oklahoma

 

2016 Champion – Florida State

Week 8 Match Ups

4-2 again last week. On the season 21-15. Think this is a tricky week.

  1. Cal 34 – UCLA 31
  2. Clemson 28- Miami 24
  3. Oklahoma 42 – Texas Tech 28
  4. Ole Miss 38 – Texas A&M 34
  5. USC 35 – Utah 31

Week 7 Match Ups

Last week went 4-2, brings total on season to 17-13.

Had 6 games picked for the week, but wasn’t able to publish picks yesterday, so I will leave off the Stanford over UCLA pick as it’s a day late, and add the FSU v Louisville Game.

  1. Northwestern 17 – Iowa 14
  2. Michigan 24 – Michigan St 17
  3. Alabama 31 – Texas A&M 28
  4. LSU 24 – UF 17
  5. Notre Dame 38 – USC 28
  6. FSU 28 – Louisville 17

Week 6 Top Match-Ups

2 Weeks ago I was 3-3 which brings me to 13-11 on the season.

This weeks games:

  1. Clemson 24 – Georgia Tech 17: In a defensive battle Clemson is able to run the ball against GT and come out on top in this rivalry game.
  2. Michigan 17 – Northwestern 10: In a game that pits 2 of the better defensive teams, both with little offense, expect a very low scoring game. Michigan continues to impress in this game and comes up victorious.
  3. West Virginia 30 – Oklahoma St 28: In what will be the biggest defensive battle in the Big 12 this year, WVU is able to a tenacious OK St pass rush to win.
  4. Florida 24 – Missouri 17: Florida continues their assent to the top of the SEC East and is able to get a little more offense than Missouri in this game.
  5. Florida State 31 – Miami 21: Florida State is able to control the line of scrimmage and keeps the ball on the ground against Miami. The key will be turnovers. FSU has less turnovers than Miami.
  6. California 28 – Utah 24: Cal upsets Utah on the road, as Utah struggles to stop the Cal passing attack.