Sorry we have been gone the last 2 weeks. Been a busy 2 weeks, coupled with being sick. Anyways we are back and ready for another week of good football. Have some big matchups this week that will shape the National Championship picture. We have 3 huge games featuring undefeated top 5 teams, a game featuring 2 of the most underrated teams in the nation facing off, and a game that will shape the ACC Coastal division race (and have an impact on FSU’s SOS).
BYU (3.99) @ Wisconsin (4.13)
BYU offense (3.32) vs Wisconsin defense (3.39): The Wisconsin defense has been one of the top 10 performing defenses this year. However talent wise they are not great, but they are very disciplined. They are equally good against the pass and the run and do not give up many points. BYU on the other hand has a QB that is very hot. They are an offense that has really turned it on since the beginning of the season. They are running the ball quite well. BYU should be able to run the ball against Wisconsin, however not as well as they have in previous games. Wisconsin will try to shut down BYU’s pass offense and force them into some turnovers and force them into 3rd and longs. Advantage here to Wisconsin.
Wisconsin offense (3.45) vs BYU defense (3.67): BYU has really built themselves a good defense and is one of the better ones in the nation. Wisconsin has their typical strong running game. This will be a very good battle in the trenches as both teams try to capitalize on solid lines. BYU will try to do what Wisconsin will try to do on defense and force them into 3rd and long passing situations. Only Wisconsin’s passing offense is better than BYU’s and should be able to convert some if BYU is able to force those situations. Advantage here to Wisconsin.
Steve: Camp Randall is one of the toughest environments in college football. Wisconsin is also just a better football team, but not by much. Both are highly underrated. I expect Wisconsin to control this game and put it away in the 4th quarter. Wisconsin 35-24
Virginia Tech (3.93) @ Miami (4.14)
VT offense (4.2) vs Miami defense (3.82): Virginia Tech has what is one of the worst BCS offenses in the nation. QB Logan Thomas is about as inconsistent as they come, coupled with a lack of playmakers, their offense is bad. Miami’s defense is mediocre, but it is fast. Miami should have little trouble shutting down Virginia Tech’s offense and forcing them into turnovers. Miami with a big advantage.
Miami offense (4.28) vs VT defense (4.14): As bad as Virginia Tech’s offense is, their defense might be equally good. By advanced metrics they are the #1 ranked defense in the nation. Miami’s offense comes into this game limping as starting QB Stephen Morris has a bum ankle and Star RB (and best player on Miami’s entire team) Duke Johnson is lost for the season with a broken ankle. As much as Virginia Tech should have trouble moving the ball. Miami may have even more trouble without Duke Johnson. Virginia Tech will put pressure on Morrris and force him into some turnovers and put the clamps on Miami’s rushing attack. VT with the advantage here.
Steve: Virginia Tech has had a bad 2 weeks with 2 bad losses. However Miami comes into this game licking their wounds as well after getting beat up by Florida State. This will be a game of attrition and will be won by whoever turns the ball over the least amount of times, as off of turnovers may be the only way either team scores. Going with the upset here VT 20-17
Oklahoma (4.25) @ Baylor (4.62)
OU offense (4.39) vs Baylor defense (3.77): OU is typically a pass heavy team with an explosive offense. However their offense has been lead by their rushing attack this year. It is a good offense, but not a dominant one. Advanced metrics has it at 25th. Baylor’s defense has been good, but not great this year. Oklahoma should be able to run the ball on them, which they will try to do, to keep the Baylor offense off the field. OU has a pretty big advantage on the Line of scrimmage in this matchup. The strength of Baylor’s defense lies in creating turnovers and stopping the pass. They try to get up big and force you to pass. OU will try to keep it close and enable them to run the ball against Baylor. Baylor will try to force OU to pass and force turnovers. I’m giving the Advantage to OU.
Baylor offense (3.85) vs OU defense (4.09): Oklahoma’s defense started the season off pretty strong, but has tailed off in recent weeks. Baylor has the most explosive offense in the nation, and have been putting up Playstation type numbers. OU’s run defense has been particularly suspect, which is not a good thing as Baylor has perhaps the best RB in the nation in Lache Seastrunk. OU’s pass defense is better but I do not think it is a good matchup against Baylor. Baylor with a big advantage here.
Steve: This is by far the best team that Baylor has faced this year and the only team with a talent advantage over them. It will be interesting to see how they react. I think OU will have success on offense and be able to put some pressure on the Baylor offense. The more OU sticks around in this game and/or if they can jump out to an early lead the quicker things may snowball for Baylor. This game will be closer than most pundits think, but Baylor keeps their NC’s hopes alive. Baylor 35-30
Oregon (4.88) @ Stanford (4.28)
Oregon offense (4.43) vs Stanford defense (3.87): I have not been a big proponent of Stanford’s this year. However they continue to get the job done. Their defense continues to perform and they continue to show they are a very well coached and talented team. They also have been a thorn in the side of Oregon over the last few years (getting a huge win last year in Autzen). A good DL and discipline in the back 7 has always been able to slow down the Duck’s attack. That is what Stanford has. They have the #4 ranked defense in F/+ and Oregon’s offense is #8. Oregon has been impressive on offense this year (no surprise), but Stanford has been equally impressive on defense (hounding Heisman candidate Brent Hundley of UCLA and forcing him into a bad game). Stanford will try to do the same here, get stops on 1st and 2nd down and force Oregon to convert 3rd and longs, which is where Stanford thrives (putting pressure on the QB in passing situations). I’m giving it a push here.
Stanford offense (4.22) vs Oregon defense (4.06): Oregon’s defense is good, but not great, the same can be said for Stanford’s offense. Stanford should be able to throw the ball against Oregon’s pass defense, while they may struggle to run the ball. Oregon’s defensive line is a strength of their team and it can put pressure on opposing QB’s in passing situations. Stanford likes to run the ball and set up the play-action. If they are able to run the ball, they could put up some points against Oregon’s defense. This is another good matchup. I’m going to give this a push as well.
Steve: Oregon is overall the better team, however it’s the matchups that keep Stanford in this game. Stanford is just not a good matchup for Oregon (as evidenced by last year’s Stanford win). This will be a battle. Oregon 30-27
LSU (4.56) @ Alabama (5.01)
LSU offense (4.67) vs Alabama defense (4.59): Alabama’s defense has looked much better since the Texas A&M fiasco. However they still are not great against the pass. Their run defense is perhaps the best in the nation. LSU on the other hand has one of the best passing offenses and a good run offense to go with it. They have done a complete turn around from last year where they had a top 10 defense and a mediocre offense. Now they have a top 10 offense and a mediocre defense. Defensively this is not a good matchup for Alabama, and LSU has the ability to put up points against Alabama’s pass defense. Because of that matchup I will give the slight advantage to LSU here.
Alabama offense (4.55) vs LSU defense (4.12): LSU’s defense is young with decent talent, but has been largely mediocre this year. Alabama’s offense has been very good (top 15 in rush and pass). Alabama should have little trouble moving the ball against LSU this year. TJ Yeldon the Alabama RB should have plenty of space to run. Big advantage to Alabama here.
Steve: LSU has traditionally been a thorn in the side of Alabama. However I just don’t think they have the horses this year to beat Alabama. However these are the type of games that can be surprising and where the Mad Hatter can pull some amazing games out of his hat and pull of an upset. But being in Tuscaloosa and with AJ McCarron at QB. Gotta go with Alabam in this one. Alabama 34-24
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