Week 5 Match-Ups

Last week SF went 5-2 again bringing yearly total to 18-9 (67%).

Formula went 35-16 straight up (136-55 on the year).

& 27-24 Against The Spread (83-106 on the year).

 

Another very good week with 3 Top 10 Match-ups and several other quality games.

SF Picks:

  1. Stanford 24 – Washington 21
  2. Oklahoma St 41 – Texas 37
  3. Tennessee 28 – UGA 21
  4. FSU 35 – UNC 31
  5. Michigan 28 – Wisconsin 21
  6. Clemson 31 – Louisville 28
  7. TCU 38 – OU 28

 

Formula Picks (Straight Up pick is in Bold):

UCONN +28 (@ Houston)

Kansas +28.5 (@ Texas Tech)

Stanford +3.5 (@ Washington)

Toledo +3.5 (@ BYU)

Notre Dame -11.5 (@ Syracuse)

Baylor -16.5 (@Iowa St)

Vanderbilt +10 (v Florida)

Texas +2.5 (@ Oklahoma St)

Rutgers +38.5 (@ Ohio St)

Northwestern +13 (@ Iowa)

UCF +4 (@ ECU)

SMU +12.5 (@ Temple)

Miami -7 (@ Georgia Tech)

Georgia State +18.5 (@Appalachian St)

Virginia +4 (@ Duke)

Boston COllege -17.5 (v Buffalo)

Oregon St +17.5 (@ Colorado)

Miami (oh) +3 (v Ohio)

Bowling Green -2.5 (v Eastern Mich)

Navy +7 (@ Air Force)

Auburn -32.5 (v ULM)

Georgia +3.5 (v Tennessee)

UMASS +2.5 (v Tulane)

Northern Illinois +4 (@ Ball St)

Florida State -10 (v UNC)

Kent State +7 (v Akron)

Wake Forest +10 (@ NCSU)

Purdue +10.5 (@ Maryland)

Michigan -10.5 (v Wisconsin)

Nevada over Hawaii

Illinois +21 (@ Nebraska)

Penn St -3 (v Minnesota)

West Virginia -3.5 (v Kansas St)

So Carolina +18 (v Texas AM)

San Jose St +8.5 (@ New Mexico)

TCU +3.5 (v OU)

Idaho +14 (v Troy)

Charlotte +9.5 (v Old Dominion)

Utah +1.5 (@ California)

Ole Miss -14.5 (v Memphis)

Kentucky +35 (@ Alabama)

FIU +6.5 (v FAU)

UTEP +19.5 (@ Louisiana Tech)

North Texas +15.5 (v Mid Tenn St)

Rice +24 (@ Southern Miss)

Cincinnati +6 (v USF)

Central Mich +3.5 (v Western Mich)

Pitt -16 (v Marshall)

LSU -13 (v Missouri)

Clemson +2 (v Louisville)

South Alabama +19.5 (v San Diego St)

ULL -4.5 (@ New Mexico St)

Michigan St -6.5 (@ Indiana)

USC -10 (v Arizona St)

Oregon -1.5 (@ Wash St)

Utah St +20 (@ Boise St)

Colorado St -6.5 (v Wyoming)

Fresno St +9 (@ UNLV)

Arizona +13 (@ UCLA)

Week 4 Picks

Last week SF went 5-2 bringing the yearly total to 13-7 (65%).

Formula was 39-16 Straight up, 101-39 on the year.

It was 22-32 ATS, 56-82 on the year.

 

It is another good week of Football games featuring several top Match-ups, will see a few undefeated teams fall this week again.

Simplified Football Picks:

  1. Clemson over GT 24-20
  2. Baylor over Oklahoma St 31-28
  3. Ole Miss over UGA 34-31
  4. Michigan St over Wisconsin 24-21
  5. Tennessee over Florida 17-14
  6. UCLA over Stanford 28-24
  7. Texas A&M over Arkansas 34-27

 

Formula Picks (Straight up picks in Bold):

Clemson -10 (@ GT)

Eastern Michigan +3 (v Wyoming)

SMU +21 (v TCU)

USC +3 (@ Utah)

Kent St +44 (@ Bama)

Georgia +7.5 (@ Ole Miss)

Purdue -6 (v Nevada)

San Jose St +7 (@Iowa St)

Charlotte +27.5 (@ Temple)

Rutgers +13.5 (@ Iowa)

FSU -7 (@ USF)

Colorado St +16 (@ Minnesota)

Wisconsin +5.5 (@ Michigan St)

Virginia Tech -11 (v ECU)

Syracuse +3.5 (@ UCONN)

Miami (oh) +17.5 (@ Cincinnati)

Akron +6.5 (v Appalachian St)

Oregon St +13.5 (v Boise St)

West Virginia -7 (v BYU)

Duke +21 (@ Notre Dame)

UMASS +22 (v Miss St)

UF +7 (@ Tennessee)

UNC -7 (v Pitt)

UTSA +4 (@ ODU)

Penn St +16 (@ Michigan)

Wake Forest +6.5 (@ Indiana)

Vanderbilt +7.5 (@ Western KY)

Fresno St +14.5 (v Tulsa)

Oregon -10 (v Colorado)

Auburn +3.5 (v LSU)

FAU +3.5 (v Ball St)

North Texas +7 (@ Rice)

Texas St +35 (v Houston)

New Mexico St +20 (@ Troy)

Georgia Southern +7 (@ Western Michigan)

UCF -6.5 (@ FIU)

Louisiana Tech +5.5 (@ MTSU)

Buffalo +14 (v Army)

Northwestern +7.5 (v Nebraska)

Oklahoma St +8.5 (@ Baylor)

USC +3 (@ UK)

UCLA +3.5 (v Stanford)

Marshall +27 (v Louisville)

Bowling Green +16.5 (@ Memphis)

Lafayette +5 (@ Tulane)

Southern Miss -10 (@ UTEP)

Idaho +14.5 (@ UNLV)

TAMU -6 (v Arkansas)

Arizona St -4 (v California)

Utah St +3 (v Air Force)

Washington

Week 3 Match-ups

Last week SF was 3-1 in their picks, bringing the season total to 8-5.

The Formula was 17-28 (34-50 on the season) Against the Spread

& 36-9 (62-23 on the season) Straight Up.

 

This week’s SF picks:

  1. Louisville over FSU 31-28. Lamar Jackson is too much for FSU to handle on the road with Derwin James. FSU goes down in a tight game
  2. Oregon over Nebraska 32-21. Nebraska fights valiantly but Oregon pulls off the Upset on the Road.
  3. Alabama over Ole Miss 34-24. Hurd outplays Morris and takes advantage of Ole Miss’ depleted secondary as Alabama gets revenge from the last 2 seasons.
  4. Texas A&M over Auburn 28-24. TAMU goes to Auburn and pulls off a big win against Auburn.
  5. Notre Dame over Michigan St 28-21. Notre Dame defends it’s home turf and stays in contention for a playoff berth.
  6. Ohio St over Oklahoma 42-38. Ohio St destroys OU in Norman and puts the Big 12’s playoff chances on life support…in Week 3.
  7. Stanford over USC 24-21. Stanford wins a tough home game to remain a legit playoff contender.

 

Formula Picks (Straight Up pick is in Bold):

Cincinnati +8.5 (v Houston)

Rice +31 (v Baylor)

Arkansas St +9 (@ Utah St)

UTSA +19.5 (v Arizona St)

Ohio +27.5 (@ Tennessee)

Iowa St +24.5 (@ TCU)

Akron +17 (@ Marshall)

Rutgers -5.5 (v New Mexico)

Bowling Green +6.5 (v Mid Tenn St)

Florida St -3 (@ Louisville)

Penn St -8.5 (v Temple)

Kansas +20 (@ Memphis)

Georgia St +34.5 (@ Wisconsin)

Miami -4 (@ Appalachian St)

Vandy +6.5 (@ Georgia Tech)

UVA +4.5 (@UCONN)

Idaho +25 (@ Washington St)

FAU +22 (@ Kansas St)

UNLV +13 (@ Central Michigan)

Fresno St +20.5 (@ Toledo)

NIU +10.5 (v San Diego St)

Colorado +21 (@ Michigan)

Oregon +3 (@ Nebraska)

Alabama -11 (@ Ole Miss)

UMASS Even (v FIU)

Miami (oh) +17.5 (v Western KY)

Pittsburgh +6 (@ Oklahoma St)

Syracuse +14.5 (v USF)

Boston College +6 (@ Virginia Tech)

Illinois +3 (v Western Michigan)

Kentucky -19.5 (v New Mexico St)

South Carolina -3 (v ECU)

Charlotte +3 (v Eastern Michigan)

Old Dominion +21.5 (@North Carolina St)

Louisiana Monroe +25 (@ Georgia Southern)

UCF +8.5 (v Maryland)

Tulane +6 (v Navy)

Louisiana Lafayette -3 (v Southern Alabama)

Louisiana Tech +11 (@ Texas Tech)

Southern Mississippi -10.5 (v Troy)

LSU -14 (v Mississippi St)

Texas AM +3.5 (@ Auburn)

UTEP +4 (v Army)

Texas St +31 (@ Arkansas)

North Texas +36.5 (@ Florida)

Notre Dame -7.5 (v Michigan St)

Georgia -7 (@ Missouri)

Ohio St -3 (@ Oklahoma)

Duke +6 (@ Northwestern)

USC +9 (@ Stanford)

Nevada -11 (v Buffalo)

UCLA -3.5 (@ BYU)

San Jose St +13 (v Utah)

Texas -8 (@ California)

Hawaii +24.5 (v Arizona)

 

Week 2 Match-Ups

SF went 5-4 last week, not bad for a week 1 with so many top match-ups.

The Formula was 17-22 Against The Spread & 26-14 Straight Up.

 

This week pales in comparison to last week, but we still picked 4 games to predict as well as the Formula’s picks for the rest of the games.

Top Games:

  1. Pittsburgh 20 – Penn St 17 (A defensive affair see’s Pitt RB Conner have another good day and top it off with a game winning score in the 4th).
  2. TCU 35 – Arkansas 32 (Arkansas takes advantage of a weak TCU defense, but Kenny Hill proves too much in the end out scoring Arkansas).
  3. Utah 28 – BYU 21 (The Holy War sees Utah get a win over rivals BYU).
  4. Tennessee 24 – Virginia Tech 21 (The biggest game this week, primarily due to the location, not the participating teams, has Tennessee outlasting VT to win).

 

Formula’s picks (Straight up picks are in Bold):

Maryland -10 (@FIU)

Syracuse +14.5 (v Louisville)

Central Michigan +21 (@ Oklahoma St)

NC State -4.5 (@ ECU)

Penn St +6 (@ Pittsburgh)

UCF +35.5 (@Michigan)

Purdue +6.5 (v Cincinnati)

Rice +10 (@ Army)

UMASS +17 (v BC)

Wyoming +24.5 (@ Nebraska)

Troy +36 (@ Clemson)

Georgia State +18 (@Air Force)

USC -16 (v Utah State)

Kansas -3 (v Ohio)

UCONN +3.5 (@ Navy)

Tulsa +29.5 (@Ohio State)

Wake Forest +5 (@ Duke)

Old Dominion +20.5 (@Appalachian St)

Akron +24 (@ Wisconsin)

Nevada +28 (@ Notre Dame)

UK +17 (@ Florida)

Alabama -29.5 (v Western Kentucky)

SMU +32 (@Baylor)

Ball State +18 (@ Indiana)

UTSA +10.5 (@ Colorado State)

Vanderbilt -5.5 (v MTSU)

Idaho +37 (@ Washington)

Miami -24 (v FAU)

USA +13 (v Georgia Southern)

ULM +46 (@ OU)

NIU +14.5 (@ USF)

UTEP +29 (@ Texas)

South Carolina +6.5 (@ Miss State)

Arkansas +7.5 (@TCU)

Auburn -19 (v Arkansas St)

Iowa St +15 (@ Iowa)

Utah -3.5 (v BYU)

Eastern Michigan +25 (@ Missouri)

Illinois +9.5 (v UNC)

VT +11.5 (v Tennessee)

UCLA -26.5 (v UNLV)

New Mexico -12.5 (@ New Mexico St)

Texas Tech @ Arizona State is a Push

Washington St +11.5 (@ Boise St)

Cal +7.5 (@ San Diego St)

UVA +24.5 (@ Oregon)

Week 1 Match-Ups

Going to do things a tad different this year. I will still give my picks for the top match-ups each week. But this year I am going to add in every game between FBS opponents and the formula’s pick against the Spread.

So far over the last 3 years I am 68% with my picks here. Hopefully I can continue that this year.

There are a LOT of good games to start the 2016 season off, enough that many are saying this is the best opening week ever. I think this might be one of the best College Football Season’s ever!

 

Top Match-ups:

  1. Stanford 38 – Kansas St 24 (Kansas St keeps it close, but Stanford pulls away at the end)
  2. Oklahoma 35 – Houston 28 (Houston’s upset bid and Playoff chances end as OU’s offense proves too much for Houston to handle)
  3. Texas A&M 31 – UCLA 28 (In what might be the best game of the weekend, Texas A&M holds off UCLA)
  4. LSU 24 – Wisconsin 14 (Wisconsin’s Defense keeps them in the game and keeps Fournette under wraps for most of the game, LSU depth proves too much in the end)
  5. Georgia 27 – North Carolina 31 (Mitch Trobisky ruins Coach Smart’s first game and enters the national conscience)
  6. Alabama 31 – USC 21 (USC just doesn’t have the depth to hang with Alabama this year. Alabama out lasts USC)
  7. Clemson 28 – Auburn 21 (Auburn keeps this game closer than many expect. But Clemson is too good in the end)
  8. Notre Dame 28 – Texas 20 (Texas Defense keeps them in the game, but their offense just isn’t good enough to pull off the upset. Keep it close in Austin)
  9. Florida State 28 – Ole Miss 17 (Dalvin Cook has a good day, and FSU pulls away from Ole Miss in the end. FSU’s defense makes a statement for 2016).

 

Formula Spread Picks (Straight up pick is in bold):

  1. Charlotte +39 (@Louisville)
  2. Tulane +17 (@Wake Forest)
  3. FIU +10.5 (Indiana)
  4. Appalachian St +21.5 (@Tenn)
  5. South Carolina +4 (@Vandy)
  6. Rice +17 (@WKU)
  7. Oregon St +13 (@Minn)
  8. Georgia St – 4 (Ball St)
  9. Army +16 (@Temple)
  10. Colorado St +8.5 (@Colorado)
  11. Kansas St +15 (@Stanford)
  12. Arkansas St -3.5 (Toledo)
  13. Georgia Tech -3 (@Boston College)
  14. Oklahoma -11.5 (Houston)
  15. Bowling Green +28 (@Ohio St)
  16. Northwestern -5 (Western Mich)
  17. Hawaii +40 (@Michigan)
  18. Louisiana Lafayette +20 (Boise St)
  19. South Alabama +28 (@Miss St)
  20. West Virginia -10 (Missouri)
  21. Rutgers +27 (@Washington)
  22. UCLA +3 (@Texas A&M)
  23. Wisconsin +10.5 (LSU)
  24. Kent State +21.5 (@Penn St)
  25. Miami (Oh) +27.5) (Iowa)
  26. Texas St +21 (@Ohio)
  27. Louisiana Tech +26 (Arkansas)
  28. North Carolina +3 (UGA)
  29. North Texas +9.5 (SMU)
  30. San Jose St +5.5 (@Tulsa)
  31. Kentucky -6.5 (Southern Miss)
  32. UMASS +36 (@UF)
  33. USC +12 (Alabama)
  34. Fresno State +28 (@Nebraska)
  35. UTEP -9 (New Mexico St)
  36. Auburn +8 (Clemson)
  37. Arizona -1 (BYU)
  38. Wyoming +10 (NIU)
  39. Notre Dame -4 (@Texas)
  40. Florida State -4.5 (Ole Miss)

Independent Preview and Predictions

For each of the conference Predictions I will put in both the Predicted Finish according to Win-Shares, as well as my own personal predictions (which are largely very similar).

 

Independent Win-Shares

 

Notre Dame – 9

BYU – 5.4

Army – 4.86

UMASS – 4.86

 

Simplified Football Predictions

Notre Dame = 9-3

BYU = 5-7

Army = 4-8

UMASS = 3-9

 

Bowl Prediction:

Orange Bowl – Notre Dame

 

Sun Belt Conference Preview and Predictions

For each of the conference Predictions I will put in both the Predicted Finish according to Win-Shares, as well as my own personal predictions (which are largely very similar).

 

Sun Belt Win-Shares

 

Arkansas St – 8.77 (6.34)

Georgia Southern – 6.99 (5.18)

Appalachian State – 6.65 (5.18)

Lafayette – 6.09 (4.32)

Georgia State – 6.19 (4.07)

South Alabama – 4.83 (3.58)

Troy – 4.94 (3.46)

Idaho – 4.74 (3.46)

Texas State – 4.07 (2.94)

New Mexico St – 3.08 (2.62)

 

 

Simplified Football Predictions

 

Arkansas St = 10-2 (7-1)

Georgia Southern = 9-3 (7-1)

Appalachian State = 9-3 (7-1)

Lafayette = 7-5 (6-2)

USA = 5-7 (4-4)

Georgia State = 5-7 (3-5)

Troy = 5-7 (3-5)

Texas St = 4-8 (3-5)

Idaho = 2-10 (1-7)

NMSU = 1-11 (1-7)

 

That is 4 bowl teams for the Sun Belt

 

New Orleans – Arkansas State

Go Daddy – Georgia Southern

Camellia – Appalachian State

Cure Bowl – Lafayette

MAC Preview and Predictions

For each of the conference Predictions I will put in both the Predicted Finish according to Win-Shares, as well as my own personal predictions (which are largely very similar).

 

MAC Win-Shares

West

 

Western Michigan – 6.9 (4.85)

Toledo – 7.32 (4.78)

Central Mich – 6.61 (4.53)

Northern Illinois – 6.64 (4.37)

Ball State – 4.99 (3.19)

Eastern Michigan – 5.12 (3.19)

 

East

 

Bowling Green – 7.35 (5.15)

Kent State – 6.28 (4.15)

Miami (oh) – 5.9 (4.05)

Akron – 5.53 (3.71)

Ohio – 5.57 (3.51)

Buffalo – 4.24 (2.52)

 

Bowling Green over Western Michigan in the Conference Championship Game

 

 

Simplified Football Predictions

West

 

WMU = 8-4 (7-1)

NIU = 7-5 (5-3)

Toledo = 7-5 (5-3)

CMU = 7-5 (5-3)

Ball St = 4-8 (2-6)

EMU = 2-10 (1-7)

 

East

 

BGU = 8-4 (6-2)

Ohio = 6-6 (4-4)

Kent State = 6-6 (4-4)

Akron = 5-7 (4-4)

Miami (oh) = 5-7 (4-4)

Buffalo = 4-8 (1-7)

 

Bowling Green over WMU in Conference Championship

 

 

That is 6 bowl teams for the MAC (with Kent state eligible)

Idaho Potato Bowl – BGU

GoDaddy Bowl – Ohio

Miami Beach Bowl – WMU

Bahamas Bowl – NIU

Camellia Bowl – Toledo

Poinsetta Bowl – CMU

 

CUSA Preview and Predictions

For each of the conference Predictions I will put in both the Predicted Finish according to Win-Shares, as well as my own personal predictions (which are largely very similar).

 

C-USA Win-Shares

West

 

Southern Miss – 7.21 (5.08)

Louisiana Tech – 6.88 (4.87)

UTSA – 5.77 (3.99)

UTEP – 6.07 (3.63)

Rice – 5.08 (3.45)

North Texas – 4.82 (2.97)

 

East

 

Marshall – 7.26 (4.99)

Western Kentucky – 6.85 (4.89)

Middle Tenn St – 6.37 (4.54)

Florida Atlantic – 5.78 (3.8)

Old Dominion – 5.3 (3.46)

Charlotte – 5.28 (3.45)

Florida International – 4.53 (2.88)

 

Southern Miss over Marshall in the Conference Championship Game

 

 

Simplified Football Predictions

West

 

Southern Miss = 9-3 (7-1)

La Tech = 7-5 (5-3)

UTSA = 5-7 (4-4)

Rice = 5-7 (4-4)

North Tex = 4-8 (3-5)

UTEP = 4-8 (1-7)

 

East

 

WKU = 9-3 (7-1)

Marshall = 8-4 (6-2)

MTSU = 6-6 (4-4)

FAU = 6-6 (4-4)

ODU = 5-7 (3-5)

FIU = 4-8 (3-5)

Charlotte = 3-9 (1-7)

 

WKU over So Miss in the Conference Championship Game

 

 

That is 5 bowl teams for the CUSA (With FAU also eligible)

Boca Raton Bowl – So Miss

Heart of Dallas  Bowl- WKU

Hawaii Bowl – Marshall

New Orleans Bowl – La Tech

Arizona Bowl – MTSU

 

Mountain West Conference Preview and Predictions

For each of the conference Predictions I will put in both the Predicted Finish according to Win-Shares, as well as my own personal predictions (which are largely very similar).

 

MWC Win-Shares

Mountain

Boise State – 7.92 (5.67)

New Mexico – 7.54 (4.58)

Colorado St – 6.5 (4.27)

Utah St – 5.56 (3.86)

Air Force – 6.53 (3.79)

Wyoming – 4.97 (3.02)

 

Western

San Deigo St – 7.71 (5.05)

San Jose St – 6.7 (4.5)

Nevada – 6.42 (4.4)

Hawaii – 4.96 (3.07)

UNLV – 4.74 (3.01)

Fresno St – 4.21 (2.78)

 

 

Boise State over San Diego St for the MWC Conference Championship

 

 

Simplified Football Predictions

Mountain

Boise St = 8-4 (6-2)

Utah St = 7-5 (6-2)

New Mexico = 7-5 (5-3)

Air Force = 7-5 (4-4)

Colorado St = 6-6 (4-4)

Wyoming = 3-9 (1-7)

 

Western

 

San Diego St = 9-3 (7-1)

Nevada = 7-5 (5-3)

San Jose St = 5-7 (4-4)

Fresno St = 4-8 (3-5)

Hawaii = 4-9 (2-6)

UNLV = 3-9 (1-7)

 

SDSU over Boise St in the MWC Conference Championship

 

 

That is 6 bowl teams for theMWC (with CSU also eligible)

 

 

Las Vegas Bowl – SDSU

Idaho Potato Bowl – Boise State

New Mexico Bowl – New Mexico

Hawaii Bowl – Utah State

Arizona Bowl – Nevada

Poinsetta Bowl – Air Force