2014 Group of 5 and Independent Preview

Last year Fresno State came very close to getting into the BCS.  This year everything changes for the Group of 5.  The American Conference goes from being an automatic qualifier (IE being recognized with the top conferences) to being recognized with the Group of 5 conferences.  The highest ranked team from here on out gets to one of the big bowls and a nice pay-day. Of course it is possible that an undefeated group of 5 team can make it to the playoffs, but they will have to win convincingly and/or beat a Power 5 school.

This year the top contenders for a playoff spot are Marshall, Boise St, UCF, Houston, and Cincinnati. Marshall has the easiest schedule, but no marquee matchups, so they have the best chance of being undefeated, but they will need to win big in almost every game.  Boise State has a game against Ole Miss to start the season, if they can win that game (provided Ole Miss does well in the SEC) and win convincingly against the rest of their schedule, they will have a good argument.  UCF has Penn State, Missouri and BYU, if they can somehow win 2 of 3 against that and win the rest, they are one team that has any kind of argument with 1 loss (still not a great one). Houston has BYU, so they will need to win convincingly against every opponent and win that game. Cincinnati has Ohio St and Miami (Fl), they like UCF could also have a weak argument for getting in with 1 loss if they win the rest big.  Of course a loss to any other team than one that finishes in the top 5, knocks them out.  With that said I think the best chance lies with Marshall going undefeated.

 

Here is a look at the top teams from each conference that should compete for the conference Title, as well as our picks to win each conference.

 

American Conference

HOUSTON:

Overall Rating: 3.91

AAC Win Share: 5.92 (overall 9.01)

CINCINNATI:

Overall Rating: 3.88

AAC Win Share: 5.86 (overall 8.11)

UCF:

Overall Rating: 3.61

AAC Win Share: 5.29 (overall 7.31)

 

Our Pick for Conference Champion is Houston, winning the tie-breaker over UCF and Cincinnati, All 3 teams get left out of Contract Bowls and Playoff.

 

Mountain West Conference

BOISE STATE:

Overall Rating: 4.05

MWC Win Share: 6.45 (overall 8.98)

UTAH STATE:

Overall Rating: 3.44

MWC Win Share: 5.09 (overall 7.61)

FRESNO STATE:

Overall Rating: 3.39

MWC Win Share: 4.90 (overall 6.39)

SAN DIEGO STATE:

Overall Rating: 3.26

MWC Win Share: 4.51 (overall 6.53)

 

We have Boise State facing off against Fresno State in the MWC championship game, with Boise winning.  Boise will contend with Marshall for the Contract bowl automatic spot, but fall short of the Playoffs.

 

 

Conference USA

MARSHALL:

Overall Rating: 3.63

CUSA Win Share: 5.85 (overall 9.42)

MIDDLE TENNESSEE STATE:

Overall Rating: 3.32

CUSA Win Share: 5.26 (overall 7.40)

RICE:

Overall Rating: 3.43

CUSA Win Share: 5.36 (overall 6.97)

UTSA:

Overall Rating: 3.37

CUSA Win Share: 5.23 (overall 6.71)

NORTH TEXAS:

Overall Rating: 3.34

CUSA Win Share: 4.87 (overall 6.66)

 

We have Marshall beating Rice in the CUSA Championship game, with Marshall winning and contending with Boise St for the Contract Bowl automatic spot, but missing the playoffs as they will not go undefeated.

 

 

Mid-American Conference

BOWLING GREEN:

Overall Rating: 3.44

MAC Win Share: 6.02 (overall 8.37)

BUFFALO:

Overall Rating: 3.30

MAC Win Share: 5.10 (overall 7.55)

NORTHERN ILLINOIS:

Overall Rating: 3.54

MAC Win Share: 6.30 (overall 8.40)

TOLEDO:

Overall Rating: 3.34

MAC Win Share: 5.09 (overall 6.82)

 

We have Northern Illinois facing off against Bowling Green for the MAC Championship, with NIU winning. However they will not make a run at a big bowl or the playoffs.

 

 

Sun Belt

USA:

Overall Rating: 3.26

Sun Belt Win Share: 5.21 (overall 6.31)

LOUISIANA LAFAYETTE:

Overall Rating: 3.22

Sun Belt Win Share: 5.55 (overall 7.28)

 

We have Louisiana winning the Sun Belt Championship, but falling short of the big bowls and playoffs.

 

 

Independents

NOTRE DAME:

Overall Rating: 4.35

Win Share: 7.21

BRIGHAM YOUNG:

Overall Rating: 4.05

Win Share: 8.48

NAVY:

Overall Rating: 3.48

Win Share: 7.76

 

Despite all of these teams (and potentially Army too) making a bowl game, none of them will come close to competing for a playoff spot.

 

Top 10 offenses:

BYU

Navy

Cincinnati

Notre Dame

Marshall

Toledo

UCF
Louisiana

Houston

Air Force

 

 

Top 10 Defenses:

Boise State

Notre Dame

BYU

Utah State

Colorado State

UCF
Houston

Cincinnati

Middle Tenn St

Rice

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